December is a strange month for new-car sales. The VFACTS figure for the month indicated an 11.3 per cent decline, but can this be attributed to a continuing buyer strike or is it just a case of buyers sunning themselves on a beach somewhere, far away from the worry and strife of the preceding 12 months?
Does a buyer holiday trump a buyer strike, in fact? An 11.3 per cent decline is a substantial improvement on the previous month's 22 per cent crater, but no better in effect than the similar slump in October.
According to official figures from VFACTS, the final tally for 2008 was 1,012,614 vehicles sold -- 37,818 fewer cars than for 2007. Putting a positive spin on the result, the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries observed in a press release that 2008 has been the second best result ever for the local industry.
The market was on the way to another record, until sales began to decline drastically from October and for the last three months of the year. Even in December, when analysts expect the slump to be less marked, as people put aside their new-car shopping until the new year, the sales figure of 76,510 was still 11.3 per cent down on the figure for December 2007.
For 2009, the FCAI is forecasting a market of 880,000 units, a figure below the prediction by Mazda's MD Doug Dickson of around 900,000 units for the year, but still well ahead of the 820,000-unit prediction by David McCarthy, Senior Manager Corporate Communications at Mercedes-Benz. Yet in spite of his prediction spells for the industry, McCarthy remains upbeat about the local economy.
"820 could be classified as a bit pessimistic... I think the economy, realistically -- in Australia -- is not in bad shape," he told the Carsales Network.
"But perception-wise, the perception is definitely that it's worse than the reality -- and that's going to impact [the market]."
Andrew McKellar, Chief Executive for the FCAI outlined a reasonably balanced view of the year ahead.
"We must be realistic about the outlook for the year ahead and acknowledge the impact that the global financial crisis is having on the broader economy," he said.
"Nonetheless there are positives that will underpin demand in 2009, including lower fuel prices, reduced interest rates and the impact of additional fiscal measures implemented by the Federal Government."
Toyota was the top-selling brand for 2008 and actually improved on its 2007 result, selling 238,983 vehicles -- versus 236,647 in 2007. Holden filled second spot with total sales for 2008 of 130,338 units, followed by Ford on 104,715. Toyota outsold Holden by over 108,645 units, the first time a leading manufacturer has outsold the runner-up by a margin exceeding 100,000 units.
Holden took some glory for the Commodore retaining its crown as the top-selling car in Australia, for the 13th consecutive year (more here). This result occurred in spite of challenges from Toyota's HiLux and Corolla models.
In the wash-up, passenger vehicles were hardest hit by the 2008 downturn, selling 40,254 fewer than in 2007. SUVs sold in 3718 fewer numbers and interestingly, 2692 units of that shortfall occurred in the same month, December. Light commercial vehicles were the only market class that actually picked up sales volume over last year, 7460 units ahead of the 2007 total.
Manufacturers that increased sales in December and for 2008 were few and far between. There was Audi, with sales up 30.2 per cent for the year and 112.1 per cent up for December alone. Ferrari, curiously, jumped ahead with a 12.4 per cent improvement for the year and 85.7 per cent for the month. Seems to prove that supercars are immune to economic fluctuations.
Fiat with a lot of new product this year (including the very popular 500) improved sales by 26.1 per cent for the year and 69.0 per cent for the month. Mazda (3.1 per cent up for the month, 2.7 per cent up for the year) was one of the few volume-selling importers to continue putting runs on the board.