2026 Toyota HiLux: Sales could be stronger than predicted

Toyota has forecast a ‘peak ute’ sales decline for the new HiLux may be less than expected and defended the substantial price rises applied to the ninth-generation ute now going on-sale.

Price rises for the new HiLux extend beyond $10,000 at the bottom of the range, where the entry-level 2.7-litre petrol and 2.4-litre turbo-diesel engines have been removed.

Through the middle of the range, the rises are more like $3000, and they’re minimal at the top of the line-up.

While pitched as an all-new, ninth generation, the latest HiLux retains an updated version of its predecessor’s IMV ladder frame and the familiar 2.8-litre 1GD powertrain.

Primary changes have included interior infotainment and detailed chassis tweaks overlaid by Australian-developed ‘Cyber Sumo’ styling.

At a preview earlier this year, Toyota Australia sales and marketing chief Sean Hanley forecast sales above 40,000 for the new HiLux.

This compared to annual sales peaking beyond 60,000 for the current model during its halcyon days, leading the market from 2016-2022.

Hanley blamed ‘peak ute’ for the decline.

Peak ute argues that ute sales have topped out and from now on, more and more models will fight over a finite sales pie, meaning the sales volume of major players such as the HiLux will inevitably decline.

But at last week’s 2026 HiLux national media launch, Hanley was being far more positive.

“HiLux [sales] could go up,” he said.

“HiLux is not an issue. The only reason I’m looking at HiLux the way we’re looking at it is because that market is so crowded and so fragmented, I don’t want to overstock.

“So I’ll sit on a number I think is reasonable.”

On price rises, he made it clear they could have been more substantial for HiLux.

“When you raise prices, there’s also the notion that you’re in the most competitive market in the world. So, you can’t just raise prices,” he said.

“So, you’ve got to navigate. So, there’s a lot of variables that we’ve got to navigate, as have other car companies.

“We believe with our product strategy going forward and with the help of our dealer network, who have been incredibly strong, we can achieve this result and still provide cars to the consumer that they want and need.”

If the market remains strong and supply can be secured, Hanley said HiLux sales could still finish 2026 over 50,000.

His boosted confidence appears to come from strong interest in the mew model, including 3000 orders taken ahead of launch.

“I don’t subscribe so much to the notion that this car’s going to fall off the perch,” he said.

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