Analysis: Can Toyota really sell 230,000 vehicles in Australia this year?

Can Toyota really do it? After a first half of 2026 hampered by supply shortages, Australia’s biggest-selling car company believes it's on track to achieve an ambitious 230,000 sales this year.

Toyota delivered 20,409 vehicles in July, its best monthly result since August 2025.

After the close run-in with BYD in June it was back to its usual dominant position, outselling the Chinese upstart nearly three-to-one.

Toyota says that result is proof of improving supply, which means it can satisfy the customer demand that has been an impediment at different times in the past few years.

But the numbers also show just how ambitious the target is. Toyota has sold 115,550 vehicles after seven months of 2026, a dip of 19 per cent compared to 2025.

To hit its target, it must deliver another 114,450 between August and December. That’s an average of 22,890 vehicles a month – effectively 23,000 – a figure it hasn’t surpassed since May 2025, when it delivered 23,576 vehicles.

Before that? It was May 2024 when it previously sold more than 23,000 new vehicles in a single month.

It must also contend with a significant downturn in two of its staples; the 4x4 ute segment (-11.6%) and the impact of the gulf war on diesel-vehicle sales (-15.3%). But 230,000 sales is the target, as Toyota Australia vice-president of sales, marketing and franchise operations John Pappas has made clear.

“It’s fantastic to see the increased supply coming into Australia to satisfy customer demand, which has been a real focus for Toyota,” he said.

“We are experiencing sustained, strong customer demand across our product range, which we believe will keep us on track to achieving 230,000 sales by the end of the year.”

Hit those undoubtedly challenging monthly numbers and Toyota will have achieved its sixth-highest annual total in its 23-year run at the top of Australian sales charts.

The vehicles that delivered Toyota’s big July result are cornerstones of the brand: the new RAV4 medium SUV was Australia's best-selling vehicle in July with 5564 deliveries.

The new HiLux ute climbed back into second on 4721. The LandCruiser Prado returned to the top 10 with its strongest monthly result of 2026, while the LandCruiser 300 Series also enjoyed its best month of the year, assisted by the new hybrid powertrain.

Almost 40 per cent of July’s RAV4 sales were plug-in hybrids. That’s a remarkable result considering Toyota entered a market already crowded with often cheaper Chinese PHEV rivals from BYD, GWM, Jaecoo, Leapmotor and others.

It underlines the hold Toyota has developed on Australian new-car buyers. Its reputation for quality, a strong dealer network and a relentless, consistent marketing have delivered that, despite substantial price rises in recent years.

Yet there are still cracks in its armour, with many models down year-on-year. They include the C-HR (-52.2%), Corolla (-24.9%), HiLux 4x4 (-8.6%), Kluger (-45.4%), LandCruiser 70 Series (-68.8%), Prado (-37.6%). RAV4 (-25.8%), Yaris (-20.5%) and Yaris Cross (-25.8%), and it still has a lot of catch-up work to do in the pure electric space that now accounts for more than one in every five new vehicles sold in Australia.

Toyota remains a relatively minor EV player compared with Tesla, BYD, MG, Geely and others.

The good news for the brand however is the significantly improved – and cheaper – bZ4X is already performing far better than the original model.

The new Touring variant broadens the range further and the HiLux EV has now arrived to target fleet, mining and government customers.

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