Australia’s EV tipping point over a decade away, says Kia

The tipping point for mass electrification in Australia’s new-vehicle market won’t occur until 2035 based on current market conditions, incentives and legislation.

That’s the take from Kia Australia, which doesn’t expect EVs to overtake internal combustion engined (ICE) vehicles in terms of overall sales until the “mid-2030s”.

To November this year Australians have purchased 28,326 new electric vehicles (including 553 Kia EV6 electric SUVs), accounting for less than three per cent of a total market that will top a million units again this year.

But some brands including Volkswagen expect EVs to outsell ICE vehicles much sooner than 2035, when the ACT and Europe will ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. Some quarters are even calling for a similar ICE ban Australia-wide by 2035.

Speaking with carsales recently, Kia Australia officials revealed their electrified vehicle portfolio was gradually building to meet mass-market acceptance of EV technology.

“The tipping point? It’s a really hard question to answer but from a planning point of view, I think the mid-2030s,” said Kia Australia chief operating officer Damien Meredith.

“Once you get to that tipping point, it will happen very quickly.”

Kia is well down the path to electrification, already offering the award-winning Kia EV6 and Niro EV electric SUVs in Australia, plus hybrid versions of its most popular models including the Kia Sorento and Kia Sportage.

Despite the lack of charging infrastructure, Australian EV demand is slowly building thanks in part to the federal Electric Car Discount, EV subsidies in all states and territories and a wider choice of battery-powered cars.

But Kia executives admit the challenge in Australia is often sourcing stock to satisfy unexpected levels of demand.

“I think [EV] demand is ahead of where we thought it would be and the market has been fully accepting of it. We’re selling as many as we can get into the country,” Meredith said.

“We’ll get more models coming through in the next couple of years. Our expectation is that it will grow quickly and the demand will continue to get stronger and stronger as the legislation that we have comes into play. I don’t think the legislation will take effect until there’s critical mass.

“Thankfully we’ve got the product in the coming years to be a really strong part of it.”

Kia Australia product planning boss Roland Rivero said the Korean brand would continue to hedge its bets on all types of vehicle propulsion and isn’t about to walk away from ICE vehicles locally just yet.

“We’re not putting our eggs in one basket – we recognise the market demand and the customer demand. There’s a mix of private and fleet that we can’t ignore,” he said.

“Are we looking at more hybrid variants across other models? Absolutely. But is electrification also high on our agenda? We’ve got our hand up for as many of those e-GMP platform products as we can get to further grow our EV fleet.

“At the same time, diesel and ICE hasn’t left and our infrastructure isn’t ready for 100 per cent electrification. It’s important that we still have a robust and comprehensive ICE fleet to satisfy Australia’s needs,” said Kia’s chief local product planner.

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