Beijing 2010: the wrap up

Imagine a place where 22 million people have been driving for less than one year, and 70 million people have been driving for less than three years -- outnumbering more experienced drivers by two-to-one.

Then imagine sharing roads that often have only been open a few years, some of which lead nowhere, they just end in a paddock, waiting for a suburb, city or industrial area to be built.

Welcome to China, circa 2010. Welcome to chaos.

A week in China, visiting the big cities such as Shanghai and Beijing and then venturing by bus to the rural areas where the various car factories are based, was an eye opener in more ways than one.

The rules of the road are: there are no rules. Emergency lanes routinely double as overtaking lanes. In fact, the line markings on most busy carriageways are redundant. If four cars or trucks can fit across two lanes plus the emergency lane, then they will.

The only thing more incredible than seeing cars, trucks and vans -- and police cars -- barreling down the emergency lane at warp speed on a freeway is finding road workers sweeping the emergency lane. Without any warning signs.

Tragically, it's little wonder China has the second highest road toll in the world behind India. It's hard to find accurate figures, but searches through Chinese authority websites and the World Health Organisation indicate that there have been anywhere from 73,000 to 96,000 deaths on Chinese roads each year for the past three years. India's road toll eclipses 100,000. Australia's was 1616 last year.

On Chinese roads, the constant tooting of horns is an attempt to alert other drivers you're nearby or about to mark their paint with your side mirrors.

Rarely do the drivers -- or the pedestrians who have no qualms about crossing a busy six lane road where there is no crossing -- make eye contact with each other.

To save face, they "look but don't see", as the saying goes. That is, both parties have clocked each other in their peripheral vision, but continue on their intended (if imaginery) path.

It is one of the most scary driving experiences I've ever witnessed. It makes Rome look orderly.

But the chaos on Chinese roads is nothing compared to the chaos inside the motor show halls at Auto China 2010, also known as the Beijing motor show.

There were more than 60 car brands from around the world in the nine gigantic halls spread over a site large enough to rival the Frankfurt motor show -- Europe's biggest. The Beijing motor show was so big, it even had its own McDonald's.

Inside each motor show hall was the good, the bad and the ugly. Here, in one place, was the best and worst the car industry has to offer.

First, the easy targets: the copycat cars. To be frank, copycat is too polite in some cases. There are vehicles that border on amounting to counterfeits, such is the level of, er, inspiration from other models.

On the copycat photo gallery we've assembled, if you think you're looking at a Toyota, a Mazda, a Mercedes-Benz, a Porsche, a Rolls-Royce, a Mini, a Smart car, a Ferrari, or another established brand, you're not.

We haven't captioned the photos because we figure in this case, the pictures really do speak a thousand words.

The real tragedy behind the copycat cars (and some truly ordinary examples of the automobile) is not just the waste of precious metals, petrochemicals and other sacrifices that mother earth has been forced to make, it's that it is denting China's car making reputation. And it doesn't deserve it.

The copycat cars risk turning China into a laughing stock, but look beyond the fake Rolexes of the automotive world and you're watching a country get on its feet -- or four wheels as it were -- very, very fast.

This was my second trip to China in 18 months, and I was impressed by the potential even back then. This week, the rate of change I'd noticed since my last visit was, quite frankly, mind-boggling.

The show itself gave me a headache -- not only because they all had their sound systems set to 11, but because there was just too much information to process in too little time. I'm pretty sure I was witnessing history in the making, but the language barrier made it difficult for a foreigner like me to absorb it all.

When I first went to China I figured they'd be at Korean levels of car quality in 10 years. I've revised that estimate now to three to five years. So have some of the biggest names in the car business.

Kevin Wale, the Australian boss of China's biggest car maker, General Motors, says the growth in China is almost beyond comprehension.

Last year, GM sold more cars in China than it did in North America -- and that trend has continued into this year.

Incredibly, sales of cars made by GM and its joint venture partners (all the big brands have at least two JVs to be allowed into the country) are up by 70 per cent in the first three months of this year. Last year GM's sales in China went up by 46 per cent compared with 2008, so the growth is speeding up, not slowing down.

China sold 13.6 million new cars last year and is on track to sell anywhere between 16 million and 17 million in 2010. GM alone will sell in excess of 2 million cars there this year.

"It's impossible to forecast, so we just have a guess," Wales says candidly during an interview with the Carsales Network. But he's only half-joking.

"We have a very big dart board and we throw things at it. It's a waste of time forecasting. You sit there and you get your calculator out but what's the point?

"Last year China started selling at a rate of 9.5 million annual sales and finished the year at 13.6 million. So why does anyone have a calculator? People ask me for a forecast for 2014, I say why?"

As the boss of GM in China, Wale has watched the country's automotive industry grow over the past five years. He certainly doesn't underestimate what China is capable of.

"This is the only truly world motor show now," he says. "It's the only place where you get all of the global competitors and all of the Chinese."

He says the Chinese are coming to western markets -- whether the cars or the countries are ready or not.

"What you need to accept is that when the Chinese say they are going to test the western market, which is what they're doing, there are a lot of them.

"They're not all going to succeed but a lot are going to try. There will be plenty of them having a crack at export markets."

Wales says that of the 45 or so Chinese car makers, a handful will survive as top tier manufacturers while about a dozen or so may survive as second tier car makers.

"The auto industry is a pillar of economic growth so every province wants to keep their auto industry," says Wale.

"There'll be more consolidation but there will be a range of tier one and tier two makers. You will see some culling -- but you won't see a massive idealistic merger."

Wale wouldn't list the brands he thought might succeed because, as with many car company bosses, he has a policy of not talking about rival brands.

"But," he said, "you can see from the production output generally who's doing well. There's a clear categorisation by the number of cars they sell."

On that basis the top of the pile among the Chinese independents are Chery, Great Wall Motors, Geely and BYD. Three of these four brands are confirmed for Australia through independent distributors. Great Wall is already here and Chery and Geely are due by the end of 2010.

But other lesser-known brands will likely try for a slice of the Australian market as well, says Wale. "They'll all have a crack but ultimately it will come down to survival of the fittest."

He said the forecast of 100,000 sales of Chinese cars in Australia within five years "is possible", but there was still a lot to learn in a short space of time.

"What no-one really knows yet is what's their capability," says Wale. "We know what they can do in China but it's complicated when you go international.

"It's complicated when you go into sophisticated markets. Australia might be small by global standards but it is a very sophisticated market. There are a lot of brands on sale there. It's very competitive."

Wale agrees that the best of the Chinese brands could be giving the Korean and Japanese makers a run for their money on safety, quality, and perception of quality within five years.

"The Chinese independents vary greatly in capability," he says. "The best of them can probably catch them [Koreans and Japanese] in three to five years. But there's also reputation. You can do the mechanical stuff, but turning it into something the public perceive and accept over a life span [of a car] is different."

And that's where the copycat cars come in or, rather, where they should be left out.

If the Chinese car makers really want to be taken seriously they need to stop undermining their own capabilities with silly, offensive, and frivolous knock-off cars that are wasting precious resources.

We've had a taste test. Now, China, it's time to show us what you're really capable of.

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