Can sedans survive in a world of SUVs?

Last year, for the first time but definitely not the last, SUVs and commercials outsold passenger cars in Australia as two utes topped the individual sales charts.

In America, analysts say that only the upcoming mid-engined Chevrolet Corvette has a guaranteed future as even the legendary Chevrolet Camaro and Ford Mustang suffer a slump while sales of trucks continue to boom.

Some people say the old-school passenger car and especially sedans are heading to the tar pits as surely as dinosaurs and the Australian-made Ford Falcon and Holden Commodore.

But many of the world’s leading designers, the futurists of the car industry, do not agree.

They are constantly projecting themselves into the future to surf, or predict, the waves of coming trends. They have to know what’s coming before it’s coming, because of the long lead times in car-making and the constant demand from customers to have what’s new and hot.

“What we see as a ‘traditional car’ is always changing. It’s something that continually develops with respect to new technologies, needs and demands, and aspirations of the time,” Calvin Luk, the young Australian designer who is helping drive the future at BMW with cars like his Z4 roadster, tells carsales

“Here’s a thought: if we look to the past, the earliest cars had two high-mounted seats and a motor, and resembled a horse carriage. One might argue that, from a seating position and scale comparison, that the earliest ‘traditional cars’ have more in common with SUVs than they do with modern ‘traditional sedans’,” Luk says.

It’s an interesting twist on a modern tale, and picks up a thread that is shared by others.

“Maybe the notion of what a car is could be changing, rather than the overall form it takes,” says Karim Habib of Infiniti.

“It’s far from an endangered species. Of course, we’ll see it evolve and develop, but it won’t die. We’ll see the proportions change into what may at first seem unusual, but they are certainly going to be with us for some time yet.”

Mike Simcoe, head of global design at General Motors, is typically blunt about sedans-versus-SUVs.

“I wouldn’t say that any particular form of automotive architecture is dead. I think that’s just silly, he says.

“They are not selling as well as they did, but they are still selling.”

At Nissan, which has effectively given up passenger cars in Australia for the short term, Alfonso Albaisa sees a new challenge and a potential opportunity.

“While some of our competitors have given up on sedans, Nissan believes that sexy sedans with the right technology will have a big future and they represent a big opportunity for us.

“I believe sedans will evolve as our customers move between segments looking for products they identify with. It is one of the beautiful aspects of design -- fresh and new is relative to time.”

Much of the backlash against sedans is being driven by the Gen-X consumers who have moved into SUVs for family work, and now the challenge is partly to engage with Millennials who are finally moving into motoring.

Albaisa believes he knows what’s needed, and has research to back it.

“Trust me, sedans like we make them are not dead, and sedan drivers are not who you think they are,” he says.

“They are younger than you’d expect. They're passionate. They're engaged.

“These young consumers are expressing a growing preference for sleekly styled sedans over SUVs – by as much as two to one.”

Aston Martin is best known for sports cars but is about to move into SUVs with its all-electric DBX, which gives design boss Marek Reichman a different perspective.

“Practicality becomes more important for the customer. And the most practical of those is the SUV,” he says.

Even so, he’s a believer in something beyond big boxes on wheels and utes.

“In every single instance, the driving capability of sports cars is moving forward. The key for us, is about the visceral feeling of driving. We’re making sure that, in Aston Martin’s world, for as long as we can, we’ll have that visceral connection.”

Jaguar is one of the brands that’s been hit by the passenger-car downturn, with its XE and XF suffering massively as it becomes more of an SUV success story, but chief designer Ian Callum is also scored a bulls-eye with the I-Pace electric car.

“Cars are still 50 per cent of the world market. We have lots of ideas on that subject at Jaguar,” he says.

“As energy becomes more of an issue then cars, lower vehicles, are here to stay. And as long as we enjoy performance we will have cars.

“The proportion is definitely changing but lower cars will always be seen as more exotic and more stylish. The very nature of their proportions tell you that. They will also always be better and more fun to drive.

“Designing Jaguar cars is extremely difficult because we resist following generic dimensions to gain the right aesthetic. When it come to SUVs there is an expectancy of less beauty and more functionality so I think SUVs are easier to design.”

But, as the world waits for Callum’s all-new XJ flagship, he is still talking positively about sedans.

“It is in human nature to like beautiful things and to have them part of their lives.”

Genesis is about to launch as the first stand-alone Korean luxury brand in Australia and it’s doing it with a pair of traditional sedans, the G70 and G80. Chief designer Luc Donckerwolke is also working on its first SUVs for 2020 and he sees more crossovers in the deeper distance, although the picture is not yet in full focus.

“I believe we are definitely going to have another step. We went from normal classical cars to SUVS and I think, especially now with the change of the powertrains, we will see something else.

“We are going to promote that we have a flat floor, probably slimmer furniture inside the car. That, combined with autonomous driving, will liberate some time and some ability to do things while we are in the car.”

Habib of Infiniti, who has been doing great looking sports car concepts and electric crossovers, agrees.

“Design will be more important in the future. Electrification will allow more parity in performance and so design will be a key battleground for hearts and minds of customers,” he says.

“As we spend more time in our cars in autonomous modes, drivers will be able to look around and interact a lot more, so what they see will become more important.”

Albaisa of Nissan sounds more like a philosopher than a designer as he considers the future.

“As cars become mechanically simpler in the electrified world, design naturally becomes a key differentiator. Design celebrates the vision of the company, the ambition of our engineers and planners is given shape with us.

“As customers embark on the big changes to mobility in front of us, design reflects the dreams of society and the technical execution of our engineers into one clean object,” he says.

For Callum, the 21st century is bringing massive changes but he is not convinced that SUVs are the end game.

“This is a very challenging time for the industry. The perfect storm. Electrification, digitisation ownerships, autonomy.

“Some changes are inevitable and cars as we know them will change with it. But let’s not assume the alternative is for everyone is something designed to go off road.”

But the last word belongs to Luk, the youngest of carsales’ impromptu design forum.

“As the traditional three-box sedans still remain a symbol of success and luxury, they will become more focused on luxury and offering exclusive experiences. Sports cars will become more extreme and focus more sharply on exhilaration and ‘thrill’. Cars which are highly emotional, where the experience for the user generates a ‘must have’ effect, will succeed.

“It doesn't spell the death of other vehicle types, but rather means that, in future, other vehicles must become purer to their purpose, their character must become heightened, offering customers a clear reason on what the car is built for.

“I see the future as a world full of possibilities, with more exciting vehicles and experiences to be had. I can’t wait,” he says.