
The Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association (AAAA) has gone on the attack, claiming government sales forecasts for electric vehicles are misleading and could unnecessarily disrupt workshops that service and repair traditional combustion-engined cars.
In a press statement, the AAAA cites a study by ACA Research predicting that electric cars will comprise around six per cent of the national fleet by 2030.
That’s a far cry from the targets set by government, according to the AAAA.

The AAAA commissioned ACA Research to run the study as part of a broader project, upon learning that “at least one state government” plans to refuse registration renewal for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles after 2035, which “would see over 90 per cent of car owners with no avenue to register their vehicles”.
This may be a misreading of a proposal from Infrastructure Victoria, to the effect of banning registration for new ICE vehicles from 2035.
If the proposal did play out as the AAAA has construed it will, the outcome of that would naturally have considerable impact on revenue for independent workshops and aftermarket franchises that are currently geared up to fix and service ICE cars.

And if the aftermarket industry were to take government estimates and targets as gospel, they might well go to the trouble and expense of training technicians to work on EVs, only to find the market is not there to fund the cost of that training.
“Governments and opposition parties are good at announcing very ambitious EV targets without giving much thought to the supporting services needed to make EVs viable – a lack of recharging infrastructure is the obvious hindrance, but little consideration has been given to what’s required to repair and maintain these cars,” said AAAA chief executive Stuart Charity.
“EV targets are seemingly plucked from nowhere with little rationale given, and as an industry we become despondent every time a new target is announced.

“It’s easy to set aspirational sales target for EVs, but what we really need is an in-depth plan on what is required to achieve these targets and to support EV owners – this plan needs to be formulated in consultation with the broader Australian automotive industry.
“There is specialist knowledge required to repair and maintain EVs, and by engaging and consulting with industry, we can commit to investing in the tools, training and skills to facilitate a more seamless transition to electric vehicles.
“There are long lead times involved in doing this – government can’t snap its fingers and expect that everything will be there ready to go in the background,” he said.

Charity also said the study revealed the automotive industry is “critically constrained by skills shortages” in a market growing by “about 325,000 vehicles every year”.
That will require 5300 additional service technicians by 2025.
“This is on top of the current shortage of more than 20,000 technicians,” he said.

“This data doesn’t consider the added training that existing technicians would need to successfully work on EVs either.
“Before governments mandate EV sales targets, they need to provide our industry with as much notice as possible and engage constructively with us. After all, our members are automotive experts and would provide invaluable insight throughout the process.”
The AAAA hasn’t revealed how ACA Research arrived at its figures – 325,000 new vehicles added the national fleet each year, or the figure of six per cent of the fleet consisting of electric vehicles.

