Car ownership to plummet

Car ownership is predicted to diminish rapidly in the next few decades and owning a car will be a quaint idea adopted only by hobbyists.

That's the word from futurist and senior fellow at the US-based Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, Jamais Cascio. He posits that the advent of self-driving cars, car-sharing systems and tech-driven taxi services such as Uber will become so compelling and easily accessible that the desire to buy, own and maintain a personal vehicle will virtually disappear.

Despite new car sales booming in many important markets, such as Australia, along with the USA and China, Cascio told US publication Business Insider that cars will be viewed very differently in 25 or 30 years' time.

"It is going to be a more cultural shift even more than a technological shift because we have this romantic culture around cars," he said.

"We are going to look back at that [car ownership] in the same kind of wistful way that we looked back at the relationship people had with horses."

The car relegated to a plaything? Cascio hypothesises that "…you will probably have school girls with all kinds of model cars around the room instead of model horses."

"You will have people who really enjoy personally-owned cars but for the same reason people own horses today. It's not a utility, it's something that is a romantic hobby."

The primary driver of this shift away from buying to renting or sharing cars with others is the rise of the autonomous car. According to car makers, they'll be more efficient, safer and faster, although blazing a new technology trail could come with some consequences for pedestrians and other road users.

While transport tech companies such as Uber are expected to capitalise on the autonomous car boom, car sharing is also expected to be another nail in the coffin of car ownership.

Exponentially cheaper than owning a car while offering many of the benefits, car sharing schemes are likely to account for larger portions of future revenue for global car makers. Ford is banking on it.

Indeed, the maker of one of the world's most desirable sports cars, the Mustang, expects personal vehicle ownership will become less interesting to urban-dwelling younger buyers who prefer to spend their money on technology and fashion.

"We can't be locked into the current definition of who we are," said Bill Ford Jr, Ford Motor Company's executive chairman at the 2014 New York motor show.

"Today we define ourselves as a car company, but we know that particularly in urban centres around the world, mobility will look very different than it is today."

Already car sharing companies are growing steadily not just in the USA but also in Australia, with the likes of FlexiCar and GoGet already offering private car parks for inner-urban members.

"Rather than fight it, we need to embrace it and then anticipate future trends," argued Ford Jr.

"Frankly, the whole notion of car ownership, particularly in urban areas, has been disrupted by Zip Car, Uber, by Car Lift – all those kinds of [car rental/sharing] companies," he added.

US-based futurist Cascio reckons that cars will become less personal over time as people view them more like public transport.

"It's just a tool," he said of cars.

In the future the vehicle that autonomously takes you to work will be different to the one that later takes you to dinner he opines, and the increasing rapidity with which technology puts information and services at our fingertips will also be a key factor in the demise of personally-owned transport.

"It may not be the vehicle that brought to you where you are and you may not be in that vehicle later in the day, but transportation is a service that is almost without notice.

"It's individualised without being individually owned. It's individual without being personal. It's no more individual than a footpath. Or no more personal than a footpath," said Cascio.

Would you ever sell your vehicle and consider using a car-sharing service, or perhaps hop into an autonomous taxi instead? Have your say in the comments section below.