Combustion engine dead by 2050, says BMW

Fare-thee-well BMW M3, it was good while it lasted…

Yes, the potent turbocharged six-cylinder BMW M3 and V8-powered M5 (and all the other exciting – and some unexciting – vehicles built by BMW) will not be available with an internal combustion engine beyond 2050.

The stark reality of BMW’s plan to end production of all CO2-emitting engines in 30 years comes from the head of its e-mobility division, Jan Freimann, who said tightening emissions regulations and outright bans will make the internal combustion engine (ICE) virtually extinct.

"We cannot anymore sell ICE with the Paris climate protection agreement in 2050. It has to be 100 per cent CO2-neutral – a zero-emission future," he said.

That means cars like the BMW 330i, which was named the carsales 2019 Car of the Year, would not continue beyond 2050 in their current form.

"It’s a revolution. Together with connected and autonomous driving, we are in a transition here," said Freimann.

The IPCC’s Paris agreement is designed to compel sovereign nations to reduce their CO2 emissions and some car-makers have already signaled their intention to dramatically reduce or even stop building combustion engines from 2050, such as Toyota.

The world's biggest CO2 emitter, China, will ban the sales of all petrol and diesel-powered vehicles in due course, while the UK and France will do so by 2040.

However, the world's second-largest CO2 emitter, the USA, has withdrawn from the Paris accord and will end its participation in late 2020, with US president Donald Trump saying it would be detrimental to the US economy.

The Paris CO2 agreement has no legal enforcement mechanism and whether countries choose to extend ICE bans beyond light vehicles to heavy commercial road, sea and air vehicles – which emit the most CO2 – remains to be seen.

Either way Freimann said BMW is unlikely to flick the combustion engine kill switch on New Year's Eve of 2049 and there were still many hurdles ahead.

"I think it's like a phasing out, but how it's determined is not announced yet. Other OEMs [car-makers] have announced this, we haven't communicated it," he added.

But even if countries like the US and possibly even Australia do not ban the sale of ICE cars by 2050, Freimann said combustion-powered BMWs probably won't be manufactured by that stage anyway.

"Other factors come into play, like economies of scale. If you only produce a small batch [of petrol cars] it gets quite expensive,” he said.

"Does it make sense, can you work with the regulations, is this foreseeable?"

The BMW electro-mobility boss pointed out that by 2021, one out four BMWs sold are forecast to be electrified – either PHEV or EV. By 2025 the forecast is one in three cars, then in 2030 one in two cars and, finally, every single BMW produced post-2050 will be EV or hydrogen FCEV.

"ICE has to phase out," insisted Freimann. "It will be around for many years and we work on it and improve.

"But there are specific climate agreements where we say we cannot refine the combustion engine any more over a certain level.

"So at some point in the future there is no other choice. The only thing accepted by worldwide authorities is BEV and FCEV."

Last week BMW opened its Battery Cell Competence Centre in Munich, at a cost of €200 million ($A324 million), where around 200 scientists will work towards one objective – to double the battery density currently available.

This may be achieved by ionic conduction, similar to solid-state battery tech, but Freimann said there were many possibilities that will emerge over the next decade.