DCT or CVT? The world decides

Global acceptance of dual-clutch (DCT) transmissions is on the rise, thanks to strong sales in Asia/Pacific regions, says a global industry analyst. But the sometimes maligned DCT is losing ground against the continuously variable transmission (CVT) in North America and Europe.

London-based market intelligence provider Future Market Insights predicts that the DCT will increase in overall global popularity, despite surrendering to constantly-variable transmissions (CVT) on both sides of the North Atlantic.

The lift in global production of DCT is due to the "robust adoption" of the efficient transmission type in Asia and around the Pacific rim, and is expected to create a more than 11 per cent Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) increase in global revenues from DCT sales through to 2020.

Increased production of hybrid and semi-hybrid vehicles throughout the Asia/Pacific (which includes Australia) is the factor that's driving the expanding interest in DCT over the forecast period. The report says manufacturers are adopting DCTs in Asia Pacific markets to help meet "growing environmental compliances and carbon emission laws," while CVTs are growing in popularity in North America and Europe despite "mounting scepticism over the engine performance and power management."

The results are surprising, in light of well-known European brand Audi dropping its development program for the CVT a few years ago, preferring to stick with ZF's traditional automatic transmissions and the 'S tronic' DCTs. But CVT may be picking up due to brands like Nissan, which is building cars equipped with the stepless transmissions at its Sunderland plant in the UK.

The report found that dry-clutch DCTs will outsell wet-clutch versions, with total sales of the former, influenced by the massive Chinese and Indian markets, expected to reach more than 3.7 million units by the end of this year.

In Australia, DCTs and CVTs are used widely. In a lot of cases, DCTs are selected for higher-performance (and therefore lower sales volume) models while CVTs tend to be adopted by lower-performance, higher-volume cars.

Leading players in the DCT market include Getrag, Continental AG, BorgWarner Inc., ZF Friedrichshafen AG and Eaton Corporation Plc.

There's no prognostication in the report concerning which of the two transmission types will overtake the traditional automatic transmission with torque converter. Nor for that matter does the report consider whether transmissions will remain relevant in the world of the future – with the expected growth of electric-vehicle sales.
Wikimedia Commons images courtesy of Spielvogel (Hyundai DCT at Frankfurt motor show, 2015) and Qurren (Subaru Lineartronic CVT at Tokyo motor show, 2009)