Falcon/Territory: Buy now or wait until 2010?

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Today's Falcon/Territory engine is the current six-cylinder petrol engine benchmark for large family cars and SUVs with its balance of longevity, ease of repair, fuel efficiency, towing power, LPG-compatibility and refinement. It won't be an easy act to follow, so should Aussie buyers snap up the last of them over the next three years or wait?

When the CarSales Network asked local Ford President Mr Tom Gorman whether Ford Australia had enough influence over Ford US to produce 50-70,000 engines suitable for Australia in a one million annual production run, he referred the question to his engineers.

The answer was an unconditional yes. In fact, local Ford engineers claimed that its 2010 Duratec replacement would not go backwards on any score.

This is a big claim when the current Falcon six has received 47 years of continuous development, a period exceeded only by Chevrolet's small block V8 and Bentley's aluminium V8 (once a Rolls Royce powerplant) and only approached by the Porsche 911 flat six.

If such a claim was made for any of today's global engines, it simply would not be true. All of the global engines under the bonnets of today's locally manufactured Mitsubishi 380, Toyota Aurion and Holden VE Commodore have been designed with front-wheel drive in mind.

Because front-drive engines sit across the front axle, they must be more compact and lighter than a typical rear-wheel drive engine. If installed in a heavier car and forced to work hard, they can become harsh and thirsty. Typically they also lack low speed pulling power.

Both Mitsubishi and Toyota get around this by installing large capacity V6 engines in smaller four-cylinder bodies -- a solution that may not be acceptable in 2010 if petrol prices continue to rise.

Holden assembles its own version of GM's latest V6 engine in its Melbourne engine plant with extra tweaks for the Commodore. This process is under similar cost and volume pressures as Ford.

All local manufacturers will be forced to make major engine changes by 2010 to meet new emissions requirements and lower fuel consumption targets while delivering extra refinement and flexibility. Ford has been forced to jump the gun only because local jobs are involved.

There are two scenarios that Falcon, Territory and Commodore buyers will face in 2010.

Growth in diesel sales will likely reduce petrol engine volumes by up to 30 per cent. In other words, expect both Ford and Holden to be offering high-quality turbodiesel options.

This loss of sales to diesels along with a move away from V8 petrol engines in the US is currently forcing both Ford and GM to develop a new generation of highly efficient and powerful V6 petrol and diesel engines to keep the US pick-up and SUV market alive. The engine choices in the current Chrysler 300C provide a preview of where this is all heading.

Chevrolet's new Camaro (developed on the local Commodore platform), and Ford's next Mustang generation, will generate another 100,000 reasons annually for the US to develop better rear-wheel drive V6 petrol engines between now and 2010.

For the first time since the 1960s, Ford's and Holden's local needs will match the priorities of their US parent companies.

This is the really exciting part of last week's Ford announcement. These new engines which will be specifically developed for rear-wheel drive will give the local Falcon, Territory and Commodore a new lease of life and, perhaps, even greater potential for exports.

You only have to look at the outstanding V8 engines in today's Commodore to see what happens when the US gets serious about developing proper rear-wheel drive engines.

So back to the question, buy now or buy later?

The current Falcon/Territory sixes should maintain their edge until 2010 following improvements expected to be announced at next year's Orion launch.

For all local models, it will then progressively become a new playing field with a choice of diesels, different petrol engine capacities, new direct-injection technology and amazing new transmissions. Australians are assured of a front row seat whether they buy now or later.

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