Is diesel about to be banned?

Consumers are already beginning to quake in their boots, hearing the news that diesel may be doomed.

The news is mostly fanning out from Europe, where upcoming emissions legislation signals an end to carbon-dense fuel combustion in favour of petrol/electric hybrids, LPG, hydrogen fuel cells and battery-electric technology.

Europe definitely has the market power to influence buying patterns and product development all over the world, but the demise of diesel is NOT imminent. There’s more to this story than the sensationalist deadlines would lead us all to believe.

When it combusts, the carbon in conventional fuels bonds with oxygen from the atmosphere to create (among other things) carbon-dioxide (CO2). In the case of diesel fuel, the carbon content is higher than in petrol. Consequently, the CO2 emissions are also higher.

As an example of this, Hyundai's Tucson Highlander (pictured) is rated by the Green Vehicle Guide at 7.7L/100km for the turbocharged petrol (1.6-litre) variant, whereas the 2.0-litre diesel variant is rated as low as 6.8L/100km. Yet despite the diesel engine's advantage in fuel efficiency, it emits the same measure of CO2 particles – 178g/km (178 grams per kilometer travelled).

In a world where environmentalists are demanding emissions of CO2 and other 'greenhouse gases' cease being pumped into the atmosphere, banning diesel engines offers a great opportunity to slow those accelerating emissions.

Across national vehicle fleets numbering in the millions, the difference in carbon content – diesel versus petrol – can make a major difference over time to the enormous volume of CO2 in the atmosphere.

CO2 is not the only pollutant those opposed to diesel cite as problematic. Among other nasties, it is suggested diesel particulates (soot) poses significant risk to urban populations in terms of increased cancer rates.

Climatologists hold greenhouse gases primarily to blame for climate change, which is often referred to as AGW (anthropogenic – ie: man-made – global warming). CO2 is not the only greenhouse gas being targeted by environmentalists and climate scientists; there's also methane, as another example. But CO2 is the main problem the automotive industry must address, and diesel is the top priority.

Who is leading the charge against diesel?
For the past several years, European legislators and car companies have foretold that the end is in sight for diesel. Europe has a long history of environmental activism, a history that could be probably traced back to the industrial revolution. Pollution has been a long-standing issue in Europe, where forests have been denuded by acid rain in the past and people have died from inhaling soot in the air.

Climate change is the latest battleground for concerned environmentalists. Legislators, consumers and the car companies are siding with the climate-change lobby and diesels will be increasingly difficult to find and expensive to use in Europe within the next decade.

China, a country with a major air pollution problem is already following the lead of the Europeans, building up its domestic expertise in electric vehicle development. For this reason, and despite being the world's fastest-growing market, China won't offset dwindling diesel demand in Europe.

After years of convincing Australians through marketing activities and advertising that diesel-engined passenger cars are economical and easy to operate, European brands are now switching horses.

They'll tell you that small, turbocharged petrol engines have the potential to be as economical as diesels, while delivering similar performance. There's more untapped potential in petrol engines to run cleaner and leaner in future. And plug-in hybrids are better still.

Prestige brand BMW has already brought to the local market three plug-ins, which are priced around the same mark or only slightly more expensive than a conventional petrol equivalent – and both are cheaper than a diesel of similar specification.

The 530i and the (plug-in) 530e (pictured) are priced the same at $109,990. That's $10,000 less than the six-cylinder 530d, but BMW also offers a four-cylinder diesel 5-Series, the 520d, for as little as $92,990.

This is a trend that will accelerate in years to come. Fewer diesel passenger cars will be available from European brands. And since Asian and American brands aren't as committed to diesel passenger cars, there'll be a steady reduction in diesel cars sold in our market.

But diesel will remain a strong sales force here in SUVs and commercial vehicles. Currently diesels account for roughly 50 per cent of SUV sales, and that proportion would be higher but for the uptake of smaller SUVs, most of which are exclusively petrol-powered.

Diesel SUVs and light commercial vehicles (LCVs) are typically marketed in Australia by Asian brands, often built in Thailand or South Korea.

As demand for diesel-engined SUVs, passenger cars and LCVs begins to dry up in the larger markets, we'll likely see the car companies offer alternatives, in the form of hybrids, EVs, plug-ins and fuel cell vehicles. And once Australia and other smaller markets remain the only hold-outs, prices of diesel vehicles will begin to rise, reflecting the changing economies of scale. Eventually, those vehicles won't be available at all.

It's a slow burn. Diesel as a fuel won't go away any time soon. Transport and logistics businesses in Australia and North America, as well as most of the rest of the world, are very dependent on diesel for heavy commercial vehicles.

Companies like Tesla are already working on battery-electric vehicles that can haul heavy loads, and Fuso Trucks has actually launched its first series-production electric truck (pictured), but it will be years before such vehicles become truly mainstream.

In the meantime, national vehicle fleets will require diesel fuel availability for years to come. It's more likely than not a diesel-engined SUV or passenger car bought new today will remain registered for the road and operating on a regular basis 10 years from now – and beyond.

The attrition rate for the national vehicle fleet during 2016/17 was 784,065 vehicles (permanently taken off the road). That's considerably less than the total new cars entering the market in 2007 – 10 years earlier, 10 years being the average age of road-registered vehicles operating in Australia, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

So while the supply of diesel-engined vehicles will begin to dry up, they constitute 22 per cent of the the national parc, ensuring no end in sight for the supply of diesel fuel. If you own a diesel SUV or LCV now, there'll be no problem refueling in the years ahead – probably decades.

Should I consider buying a new diesel SUV or LCV then?
If it's a leased vehicle that's likely to be swapped within three or four years, no problem, get your skates on. And even if you intend to keep the car for a full decade or more, there won't be any problems obtaining diesel during the period of your ownership.

Last year (2017), 377,423 diesel-powered SUVs, LCVs and passenger vehicles were sold in Australia, according to VFACTS. Sales of diesel vehicles in these three classes accounted for nearly 32 per cent of all new vehicle sales, and that doesn't include the nearly 37,000 heavy commercials.

The one unknown factor is government regulation, in the event of the election of a future government more committed to the environment. That prospect aside, however, there's still a lot of life left in diesel combustion in this country.

Mercedes-Benz has been working on its 'DiesOtto' technology over the past several years. This type of internal-combustion system promises all the benefits of diesel combustion, with few of the downsides.

Mazda is now bringing its own version to market sometime next year. If Mazda's SKYACTIV-X system is made available to other manufacturers, that could hasten the end for diesel as we know it. Car companies are already predicting petrol combustion will outlast diesel by years or even decades.

Other than an internal-combustion solution), diesel could be replaced by long-range EVs – the electric motors easily able to produce the same sort of effortless torque as diesels. Battery technology is improving, but needs to advance further to be a viable alternative to diesel for towing, off-roading and touring.

Fuel cell systems are a promising avenue of research, with the energy of hydrogen producing more than enough electrical power to compensate for the current lack of energy density in batteries.

And plug-in hybrids are a worthwhile stop-gap, with Land Rover recently demonstrating that such systems are essentially every bit as capable off-road as a conventional diesel SUV.