Forecasts of million-car Oz market fade

Hopes of achieving a million new vehicle market this year have all but disappeared following the second successive monthly fall in year-on-year sales. After a lacklustre October, Australian new vehicle sales totalled 83,538 units in November -- a drop of 797 on the same month last year.

According to the official VFacts sales figures, the overall total for the first 11 months of the year is 908,992 vehicles. So while November sales were up on the October total of 76,118, there is little chance of the combined market selling the required 90,000-odd vehicles in December needed to reach the one million mark.

Toyota was again the biggest selling brand and with a lead of 22,287 vehicles (giving it 20.3 per cent share) over second placed, Holden. The Japanese marque will take the overall number one spot for 2006 -- its third year in succession as the biggest brand Down Under. Its year to date total currently sits at 184,397 vehicles, just shy of the 184,763 vehicles it sold for the same period (November YTD) last year.

Holden sales are down too by just under 2000 vehicles year to date. However, with 162,110 cars having been bought so far this year, for a 17.8 per cent share, it will still take the number two spot clearly ahead of Ford which to date has sold 119,037 vehicles for 13.1 per cent market share.

Both Holden and Ford have suffered declining sales of their respective Commodore and Falcon large cars this year with the segment down by 24,509 units or 14.7 per cent. However, despite buyers shying away from these big cars -- largely in the face of rising fuel prices and imminent replacement models -- Commodore will still be the biggest selling car in the Australian market having notched up a total of 62,324 sales Nov YTD. 

Falcon will be the second biggest selling car with 49,543 having been driven out of showrooms this year but in a sign of the times, the third biggest seller, Toyota's Corolla is not far behind with 42,831 sales

The small car market has definitely been the driving force in 2005 with growth of nearly 20 per cent. This segment is a solid 32,558 units up on the same period last year. This is now the biggest segment in the local market accounting for over 35 per cent on new vehicles sales.

It is strength in this segment that has helped Mazda to fourth position Nov YTD. Year to date, Mazda has garnered 61,168 new vehicle sales - its highest ever - with the Mazda3 samll car having increased its volume for the first 11 months by over 10,000 units compared to the same period in 2004.

After years of worsening results, Mitsubishi - currently in fifth place - has increased both volume and market share -- up 5705 units year to date and commanding 6.3 per cent of the pie. Its biggest growth products have been the small SUV Outlander - up 1358 units - and the Triton ute and cab chassis which with combined 4x2 and 4x4 sales is up 3232 units.

Both Mitsubishis are in segments that, alongside small cars, have been big growers this year. Overall the SUV market is up 4.1 per cent -- although the big sellers have been the mid sized vehicles, which are 20.5 per cent up on last year -- and the ute/cab chassis segment, which has increased by over 7 per cent.

Light commercials and SUVs have meantime been the mainstay of Nissan's sales this year ensuring it remains in sixth place overall year to date with total sales of 51,486. The maker has lost volume on all products in the range bar the new Pathfinder and Murano SUVs but has still managed to move more than 9000 Navaras (its third biggest seller) and 11,000 X-Trails.

Rounding out the top ten brands in terms of sales year to date are Hyundai, Honda, Subaru and Kia, which have all increased volume and share over last year thanks to booming small car and strong medium car and SUV sales.

After having forecast in October that this year new car sales would top one million vehicles, the industry umbrella body, FCAI, is now shying away from the magic number preferring to push that 2005 will be the fourth straight record sales year.

However, while petrol prices remain high and many big selling models will be replaced next year -- Commodore and Toyota Camry among them -- few think the record levels of new car sales will continue. Indeed, some in the industry are already predicting a flattening of the market to around the 970-980,000 mark next year.