Four pillars of future transport in Australia

A futuristic glimpse of how Australia's motoring future may unfold is provided in a set of four scenarios concocted by the National Transport Commission (NTC) to coincide with the Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) World Congress held in Melbourne this month.

Peering into the future as far ahead as 2040, the new papers explore four changes that are expected to have some impact on the way Australian transport may evolve as new technologies continue to be developed.

Automation is the leading factor, followed by shared mobility, data availability and consumer demand for new services.

Automation requires little explanation. The world's automotive industry is already engaged in developing autonomous cars that will be able to navigate the country's highways and by-ways with little or no human intervention.

According to the NTC's paper, VicRoads has already broken down vehicle automation into three categories:

• Having no automation above driver assistance systems
• Being capable of automated driving with a human driver present, or
• Driverless vehicles

The NTC is currently investigating 'regulatory barriers' that would block the widespread adoption of autonomous driving technology in Australia, beyond the driver-assistance systems already available. These include autonomous emergency braking, brake assist, stability control, lane keep assist and adaptive cruise control, to name some of the more obvious examples.

A survey by the Australian Driverless Vehicle Initiative has found that 82 per cent of Australians see a need for autonomous motoring to assist impaired drivers, and 73 per cent of the respondents would welcome autonomous cars for those occasions they are physically or mentally unable to drive.

“It’s just under a year since ADVI led the first trial of autonomous cars on Australian roads, and fully driverless vehicles aren’t yet even available to the public, but the Australian public is already quite advanced in its thinking,” said Professor Michael Regan, Chief Scientist-Human Factors at the Australian Road Research Board (ARRB Group), and lead researcher for the study.

“ADVI’s preliminary findings show the majority of the Australian community is already willing to trust self-driving cars in situations where they don’t feel capable to drive or when they would simply rather not because it’s boring or they’re in traffic.”

“Given the lack of community interaction with self-driving cars to-date, it’s encouraging that almost half [47 per cent] of the Australian population believe they will be safer than human drivers.”

Shared mobility is already beginning to find its feet in Australia, with the NTC naming companies offering such a service as GoGet, Flexicar, Hertz 24/7, Green Car Share and PopCar. The NTC report doesn't specifically mention this, but one hurdle facing such businesses is the cultural reluctance in Australia to be without a car and rely entirely on ride-sharing, traditional public transport and the newer concept of car sharing.

But in San Francisco, the NTC reveals, 40 per cent of Uber trips are already pooled, reducing the cost to the consumer through the rise of digital apps that put together travellers headed in the same direction. As younger consumers adapt to the new paradigm, this sort of travel is likely to become more popular in years to come.

Data availability is the free dissemination of data between vehicles, infrastructure (traffic lights, digital road signs, etc) and mobile phones. This promises to coordinate traffic flow for optimal efficiency and safety, but could present problems with data exchange if the network cannot cope with the amount of information being transmitted and received.

The NTC doesn't foresee this being much of a problem however, stating that the hardware required is "becoming smaller and cheaper". Currently cars on average are fitted with between 60 and 100 sensors, but this could grow to as many as 200 sensors in the near future.

The final factor, changing consumer demands, is characterised by the NTC as a lower level of reliance on physical transport. Citing a Canadian catchphrase, 'hyperconnectivity', the NTC foresees fewer trips, stating that the incidence of travel by citizens in western nations has plateaued, and may begin to decline.

This is due to the wired-in lifestyle of the current generation, working from home, ordering food online, Internet banking, texting and keeping in touch via well established social media portals. According to the NTC, proportionally fewer 'millenials' are obtaining a driver's licence than has been the case for previous generations.

Speaking at the ITS World Congress, NTC chief executive Paul Retter said Australia is poised to experience the biggest change in transport since the days of the first motor cars.

"These four scenarios are not predictions of the future, but they help industry, governments and the community examine the implications of changes in automation, data sharing, shared mobility and consumer demand," he said.

He added that industry and government "should prepare for uncertainty and encourage new ways to encourage innovation."

The NTC papers set out various questions that governments will need to address, including:
• Should governments regulate ahead of the adoption curve?
• Could or should governments transition all transport laws to a safety management system approach? and,
• Does the way our regulations are structured impact on new products and services?

Plenty of food for thought in that, but the market already seems to be adjusting to the future well ahead of the legislators and other regulatory stakeholders.