FRANKFURT MOTOR SHOW: Electrifying the world

So here we go again. Another motor show. In Europe. Another motor show filled with European concepts and upcoming production cars, plus a few Asian machines thrown in for colour.

But this year's Frankfurt motor show is different. Never before has a motor show loomed in the shadow of such an emissions legislation change, with billions of euros in fines for non-compliance.

Never in modern history have the imperious Europeans been forced to march to such an unfamiliar tune.

We’ve been hearing about electric cars coming from Europeans for 30 years now. The very first (and second) generation of the Mercedes-Benz A-Class was engineered with sandwich floors, just in case it became profitable to stick electric batteries inside them.

Now the EU7 emissions rules, which dictate a Europe-wide fleet emissions target of 95g/km of CO2 by the end of 2021, are about to come into force.

Any new car that goes on sale now has to help its brand to meet this target, and understanding that goes a long way to understanding the goings on in Frankfurt this week.

Yes, there is the usual array of dazzling supercars, hypercars and wacky concept cars, and they are mostly electrified.

The stars of the near-future production car world? Electrified.

The highlights of the show? Electrified. Even the arguably ‘local’ (ie: Australian) highlight, the born-again Land Rover Defender, will offer 48-volt mild-hybrid and perhaps even pure EV versions Down Under – eventually.

With such a looming deadline and all the Europeans having held back their electric options until the last minute, it’s safe to say this year’s Frankfurt show has something like the feel of a race paddock.

There were dozens of zero-emissions cars revealed here and dozens more plug-in hybrids, almost all of which were ready to go years ago, if necessary.

But the cost of developing diesel engines, in particular, down to 95g/km has finally achieved near-parity with developing electric powertrains.

From Audi to Volkswagen and everything in between, the car brands are almost uniquely ready for the race this year. There’s no panic from the head honchos, but there’s certainly apprehension that the buyers, in Europe in particular, won’t be there to justify their billions spent in development.

They have just months to get there and nobody is in any doubt that their profits will be hammered in the race. For once, it’s almost as though they’re all pulling together to get each other over the line for EU7, rather than competing against each other directly.

Their anxieties go further than mere inter-brand competition for once, with EVs costing around €10,000 more to build than an equivalent combustion car, according to one Volkswagen executive, but customers demanding a similar price point.

The CO2 rule

Europe’s current new-car CO2 fleet average is 120.5g/km, which has ballooned thanks to SUV demand and the abandonment of mid-size cars.

From next year, the CO2 fleet average must be 95g/km for 95 per cent of all cars and SUVs sold and by 2021 every new car sold in the EU must comply with the directive, or face fines in the billions.

That’s because the fine for missing the target is €95 per excess gram of CO2 per car, and to avoid that the European market needs to triple its share of EVs to six per cent within two years, plus plug-in hybrids will need to jump to around five per cent.

If current line-ups in Europe were carried over unchanged the industry would face €25 billion in fines...

It gets harder from there, too, with a 37.5 per cent cut demanded from 2021 to 2030 (the EU7 emission limit will have come down 40 per cent from 2007).

Commuter EVs

The volume end of the game is where the more realistic EV stuff is happening, along with plug-in hybrids with far more realistic range than ever before.

The star of the pre-show has been the Volkswagen ID.3 hatch, which claims to have a Golf’s footprint and a Passat’s interior space.

It will come in three battery sizes with three equipment packages, and it will have the option of very fast charging. All for €30,000 as the starting point in Europe, which could translate to less than $50,000 when it arrives in Australia in 2022.

Close by, and one of the most keenly anticipated machines of the show, is the Honda e. Cheaper than the ID.3 and with only two doors, the concept is just about the cutest little bugabee ever seen at a motor show, and the production version has only been boring-ed up just a touch, so it’s still pretty awesome.

Then there’s the 1970s-inspired Hyundai 45 Concept electric crossover and Opel’s Corsa-e mini-car. Opel is even promising a racing series for that one!

It’s not all battery electric, with BMW showing fuel-cell electric alternatives – including a new X5-based concept.

Meanwhile, BMW's small-car brand opened the order books for the MINI Cooper SE electric car today on the back of 60,000 expressions of interest. Expect an announcement re its Australian plans for an EV soon.

Meanwhile, up in merchant-banker land, the Mercedes-Benz EQS concept shows its pure EV version of what an S-Class will look like in two years. The plan is to run it in parallel with the standard S-Class.

And then there’s the Porsche Taycan, which has had plenty of coverage in the last week or so. And it’s simply gorgeous.

There’s also Byton and Wey on show, as the Chinese begin to branch out from their own EV-heavy roads.

The hot stuff

There’s a Lamborghini, naturally, but in a way you’ve never seen before.

Lamborghini likes things that don’t weigh much and it isn’t averse to electrification, so it took the heaviest part of electric cars out. Yes, its 600kW Sian hypercar runs a supercapacitor instead of a lithium-ion battery.

Then there’s Pininfarina, making a statement with a universally available supercar EV platform (with help from Rimac).

Audi didn’t come empty handed, bringing the AI:TRAIL concept, though most of the Volkswagen Group brands were told to avoid making an EV splash so the ID.3 could have a clear run at the German front pages.

Not electric stars

The biggest news is clearly the Land Rover Defender mentioned above in its diesel and inline four and six-cylinder glory. It’s also, despite design boss Gerry McGovern’s insistence, clearly related to the DC100 concept car from eight years ago.

Other big news includes the arrival of Audi’s big banger RS 6 Avant and RS 7 Sportback models, plus and RS 5 update.

And, for shock value, little beats the buck-toothed BMW Concept 4 that looks like an Audi with a different badge and very different grille on the front. Look at it hard and often, because it’s heading into production.