Holden has plenty of imports to consider

Becoming a full-line importer means Holden can shop through the entire General Motors catalogue for new models without worrying about doing damage to its locally-built models.

Not much of a silver lining, but there it is.

However, while browsing is one thing, actually assembling the business case to import successfully is another. Of course, you only start calculating the numbers if the model you want is available in right-hand drive, something Holden has fallen foul of previously.

The General Motors brand line-up consists of:

Chevrolet – which Holden is most closely aligned with
Buick – a premium version of Chevrolet, if you like, that is popular in China
Truck and SUV maker GMC
Luxury brand Cadillac, which almost came here in 2009
European subsidiary Opel (Vauxhall in the UK) – which did come here briefly in 2012/13

GM has several joint-ventures in China, the most important being Shanghai GM with SAIC Motor.

One of the things that will help Holden is that most of the cars and SUVs it will consider will spring from one of two new global architectures that GM is developing -- D2XX and E2XX.

The former replaces Delta II (Cruze size) and Theta (Captiva) crossover platforms, the latter Epsilon II (Malibu size) and Lambda crossover platforms. That should help affordability.

And speaking of prices, expect Chevrolet to continue to be the go-to brand for Holden’s future model lines. They fit in the same space and have cars built roughly to the same quality level (Buicks and Opels tend to be spiffier and more expensive).

You’re not alone if you’re wondering whether GM will eventually just go the whole hog and ditch the Holden name in favour of Chevrolet in Australia and New Zealand. But Holden says that’s not part of the plan – as far as it knows.

Maybe Chevrolet’s just-announced pull-out from Europe is a good sign for the survival of the Holden name?

The second-generation Cruze small car (due by 2016) and a larger car will continue to be at the heart of Holden’s post-2017 line-up, although whether the latter will be the mid-size Malibu or a direct replacement for the Commodore is another question.

If Holden did decide a large car was needed to replace Commodore then the Chevrolet Impala would be the most logical choice. It was the car most likely to be built at Elizabeth as the next-gen Commodore post-2017 anyway.

But by 2017 it’s easy to see such a car not being necessary. Malibu will be established in the market and no-one expects the large sedan market to suddenly reverse its slumping fortunes.

But if it was green-lighted, would it be called Commodore? Given the car will not be built here, won’t be rear-wheel drive or V8-powered, and won’t have ongoing local engineering input, that would be hard sell.

Ford clearly decided Falcon didn’t need a direct replacement, preferring to stick with Mondeo and retire the iconic local badge.

Whichever way you cut it, there won’t be a ute, a station wagon or a long-wheelbase Caprice luxury sedan.

The latter could be subsumed as part of Cadillac if it does come here – that’s a big if, although GM did confirm it had re-opened the investigation .

So super-mini (Barina Spark) and mini (Barina) will continue to be part of the line-up, as will the petrol-electric Volt, which will be redesigned for 2015.

SUVs will be a priority as that part of the market booms. The freshly-launched Trax and the next-generation Captiva7 are shoe-ins of course, as is a new compact SUV to replace the Captiva5 to better take on Toyota RAV4, Mazda CX-5 and the like. Both Captiva replacements are due in 2015.

The SUV family could expand dramatically given that between them, Chevrolet, GMC and Buick develop various off-road wagons, from soft-roaders to hard-core bush-bashers such as the Suburban, which was briefly sold here in the 1990s.

GMC also has its full-size Sierra truck line (Chevy has Silverado) that might be considered for Australia if the mining industry is buoyant – and if they are available in right-hand drive.

Given Chevrolet manufacturers two global performance icons in the Corvette and Camaro, there will be plenty of speculation about their presence here.

A new Corvette has just been launched and after some toing and froing, GM has declared it can’t be built in right-hand drive.

The current Camaro, which is based on the Commodore’s Zeta platform, has twice been slated for right-hand drive production and then killed for cost reasons.

There is a new Camaro based on the Cadillac Alpha platform due in 2016 and we fancy – given Ford has gone global with Mustang – GM might elect to give chase.

For Australia, it would become the only affordable rear-wheel drive option and, most likely, Holden’s V8 Supercar -- just as Mustang is expected to fill that role for Ford.

Another possible option is that GM continues to build Zeta-based V8s in the USA, as was mooted earlier in the year, to extend the life of the just-launched Chevrolet SS.

Or it could develop a new-gen affordable rear-wheel drive car on a cheaper version of Alpha. If either was built, it would be easy to see them coming to Australia.

The other potential performance source is Opel’s OPC sub-brand, which briefly saw light of day here in 2013. It seems likely Holden already has plans to bring back the high-performance Astra, while other models are also under consideration.

Holden coverage on motoring.com.au

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