Hydrogen v solid-state battery EVs

Major cities around the world are banning diesel-powered vehicles to improve air quality. Petrol cars are requiring particulate filters. China has confirmed it will ban the sale of all petrol and diesel cars in the near future and Europe continues to mandate stricter emissions regulations.

The combustion engine is being squeezed from every angle and the age of the electric vehicle (EV) is dawning.

This will create momentous change in the automotive landscape over the next few decades and a new high-tech war is already being waged in laboratories around the world that will shape not just what we drive, but how we drive.

Right now, automotive and technology companies are betting on two technologies that are expected to inherit the automotive industry's multi-trillion-dollar energy market: hydrogen EVs and battery EVs.

As it stands, privately-owned hydrogen fuel-cell EVs are rarer than hen's teeth, relatively expensive and made by a handful of car-makers including Toyota, Hyundai, Honda and Mercedes-Benz.

Hydrogen refuelling infrastructure is in its infancy – there are only a handful of hydrogen stations in Australia and around 500 globally.

But hydrogen EVs take only about five minutes to refuel for a 500km range -- roughly the same as a regular internal-combustion car.

Battery EVs are much more common, cost a fair bit less than hydrogen EVs and many are now also capable of long-range travel (400km-plus). And the network of EV charging points is far more widespread, even in Australia.

But the sticking point is recharge times.

With present-day lithium-ion battery technology, EVs typically take between 40 and 60 minutes to fully charge via the fastest recharging equipment, for a 500km range. For many customers, this simply won't work.

However, battery EVs have many other advantages, including the fact they produce no tailpipe emissions and can be fully recharged for just a few dollars – or even for free if you have solar panels and a home battery set-up.

And the advent of inductive charging means no more filthy power cables to handle – at least for EV owners with off-street parking.

On the other hand, hydrogen fuel-cell EVs emit only water vapour and make their own power on-board, although they still employ a battery to store power. Therefore both technologies require similar resources to manufacture.

But hydrogen EVs are not just more expensive to buy, but run. Toyota says its Mirai costs about $60 to fill with hydrogen, giving it a claimed 550km range. Tesla’s battery-powered Model S can travel almost as far, for less than $10.

That said, the purchase price of hydrogen EVs and the fuel they run on should reduce with scale, and countries like Germany, Japan and Korea are heavily investing in hydrogen infrastructure.

But unlike the Xbox versus PlayStation, Democrats versus Republicans, or Coles versus Woolworths battles, many experts predict the two EV powers are unlikely to co-exist in the car world.

There's a war brewing, and there will be casualties.

"I think it definitely comes down to which one gets there first," says Dave Shaw, engineering chief for the new Jaguar I-PACE EV, of the hydrogen EV versus battery EV battle.

"I think once you consider the lifecycle of both technologies, that will be the deciding factor of whether technology A or technology B gains ascendency."

Major oil companies such as Shell and Total are backing hydrogen.

They have formed a global hydrogen council which also includes China Energy, JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy Corporation and several car-makers, including BMW Group, Daimler, Honda, Hyundai, Toyota, Great Wall Motors and Bosch.

With the might of big oil behind it and plenty of automotive brands in the mix, surely it's a slam dunk for hydrogen cars?

It appeared that way 15 years ago but the advent of solid-state batteries could deliver a LeBron-like rejection and tip the scales in the favour of battery EVs.

The current liquid-based electrolyte chemistry of lithium-ion batteries, which are present in cars like the Tesla Model S, Nissan LEAF and Jaguar I-PACE, could soon be replaced with solid electrolytes.

In short, this would deliver a revolution in energy density and slash battery recharge times to acceptable levels.

"I see solid-state batteries as the next huge leap that could come," said Shaw.

"We know that charge times and the ability of physics of accepting electric energy into a battery will always be limited by the laws of physics and thermodynamics.

“So to move away from a liquid-based chemistry to a solid-state chemistry means that even a 30-minute super-fast charge could become a five-minute, three-minute, two-minute – who knows? – plug-in charge," he stated.

Mainstream car-makers are hedging their bets by investing in both hydrogen and solid-state battery R&D – until one of them gains enough industry support to force out the other.

But there are also questions to be answered about the ‘well to wheel’ emissions of hydrogen, and particularly where it originates.

Japanese industry including companies like Toyota is looking to source hydrogen from 'CO2-neutral' brown coal in a project backed by the Australian government. It aims to use carbon sequestration — pumping CO2 deep underground, to stop it entering the atmosphere.

Simon Holmes à Court, a senior advisor to the Energy Transition Hub at Melbourne University, reckons the Aussie project may not be a clean solution.

"While hydrogen itself is a clean fuel, using brown coal to produce hydrogen fuel is highly polluting. Unless and until this project captures and stores its emissions, the project will produce some of the dirtiest fuel possible," Holmes à Court told the Sydney Morning Herald in April.

Even so, solid-state batteries are certainly not a silver bullet that will solve pollution issues and fossil fuel dependence in huge car markets such as China, the Americas and Europe – and eventually Australia.

The benefits of solid-state batteries include higher-density energy storage, which translates to smaller, lighter and faster-charging battery packs. Apart from the question of where their power comes from, the biggest problem is that they remain extraordinarily expense to manufacture.

Indeed, some execs say the timeline for viable solid-state batteries for cars is more like 2025 or 2030. Nissan's Takao Asami told Automotive News that that "All solid-state batteries, roughly speaking, are still in the initial phase of research."

Audi execs disagree, saying solid-state batteries may only be a few years away.

But with more allegations around emissions cheating and the dieselgate scandal surrounding Audi and its parent company Volkswagen – issues which have accelerated EV development as public support for diesel continues to collapse – the company is scrambling to fast-track alternative fuel sources.

"Our development boss Peter Mertens is speaking of solid-state batteries, which are still a few years away, but I think it would be an advantage if it will be developed, so that batteries are getting lighter and need less space," Audi global product and technology comms boss, Peter Oberndorfer, told motoring.com.au.

BMW has teamed up with a solid-state battery development company, Solid Power, to accelerate the technology’s development and even hydrogen supporters are pumping in huge amounts of cash.

Honda is researching the technology and Toyota – a company that has been promoting hydrogen for more than a decade — reckons it'll have a solid-state battery EV ready by 2022.

Hydrogen supporter Hyundai, whose Nexo hydrogen EV will be coming to Australia via government fleet purchasing this year, says that by 2030 hydrogen vehicles will be more affordable than EVs.

Nevertheless Kisang Lee, the senior vice-president of Hyundai's Eco Technology centre, conceded that R&D expenditure on battery tech is considerably more than on hydrogen tech.

"Our research capital investment in [battery] EV is around twice that of hydrogen," he said at this year’s Consumer Electronic Show.

As progressively stricter emissions regulations in China, the USA and Europe force the hands of car-makers to deliver zero-emissions motoring, the battle between hydrogen and battery EVs will intensify.

Even the world's most recognisable EV maker, and the biggest consumer of lithium-ion batteries, Tesla Motors, is considering solid-state batteries.

"We’ve talked to a number of different groups that are researching this [solid-state battery technology] and we actually have tested a number of those very early prototype single cells," said Tesla CTO, JB Straubel, during a media conference call in 2017.

There are new players looking to get into the ring too.

The Dyson corporation, most famous for its trendy vacuum cleaners, is building an electric car and is endeavouring to have a solid-state battery for its first ever EV by 2020.

"What you have to remember is that when people started looking at hydrogen technology, solid-state batteries were not even a concept," said Dave Shaw.

"There was only really one horse to back at the time," he added. "But I think solid-state has given the battery and technology industries something else to look at, and they're clearly looking at it very seriously."

The next 30 years will be fascinating as legislation forces more hybrids and eventually EVs into circulation. This will also require a significant education campaign to help ease the transition from a fossil-fuelled marketplace to one more focussed on renewable energies.

Like Facebook versus MySpace, or VHS versus BetaCam, the market may ultimately pick the victor in this crucial tech battle, as customers vote with their wallets.

On the other hand, a hydrogen EV incorporating a solid-state battery could well be the ultimate green machine.

Can hydrogen EVs and battery EVs co-exist or will one technology dominate? Have your say in the comments section below.