There are those who believe man-made global warming is a myth. Hyundai's Byung Ki Ahn is not one of them.
Delivering a presentation to Aussie journalists in Korea last week, Dr Ahn, Principal Engineer and General Manager of Hyundai's Fuel Cell Group, kicked off with the doom-and-gloom scenario the world currently faces.
"The CO2 concentration before industrialisation — in the 18th Century, I guess — it was 280ppm [parts per million]," he told the media attending. "Currently it's almost 400ppm, which is very, very high. That has [caused, and will continue to] cause a temperature increase."
Global climate change is one challenge — a specifically environmental one — the automotive industry faces in coming years, but it's not by any means the only challenge. Dr Ahn also raised the spectre of fossil fuel supplies running out. Oil production can create its own environmental problems, as we've seen with the Exxon Valdez and Deepwater Horizon disasters, but leaving those aside the chief concern with petroleum dependency is economic rather than environmental.
"Oil depletion has been an issue for decades now," Dr Ahn explained. "Some experts say that peak oil is already here. A lot of people expect that peak oil [will occur] somewhere between 2020 and 2030."
There are different technological means of resolving these issues, but the two solutions that show the most promise are fuel cell vehicles and electric vehicles. Pros and cons can be summed up this way: Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are likely to be expensive to develop and build, plus the hydrogen fuel to power them must come from somewhere — and fuel-supply infrastructure has been non-existent. The technology redeems itself however, in providing long range, exceptionally clean running and real-world driveability.
Electric vehicles (EVs), in contrast, are ready to go now, with recharging infrastructure practically available to anyone willing to find $150 to $200 to install a 15-Amp power outlet in the garage. They're as easy to operate as FCVs and as quiet, but their range isn't anything like as long and they remain expensive in the short-term — until economies of scale bring down the cost of lithium-ion batteries. Recharged from coal-fired power generation means they're less eco-friendly, on a 'well-to-wheel' basis, but they're still cleaner than most petrol-engined vehicles on the road. Battery-swap infrastructure can reduce range anxiety and overcome other constraints — including the purchase price of the car.
Dr Ahn has more of a vested interest in FCVs than he does in pure EVs. He and his team are working toward a production FCV for mass-market consumption by 2015. In this, Hyundai is not alone. Toyota also aims to have a commercially available FCV by then.
Hyundai plans for a 2000-unit pilot build of the Tucson ix FCEV between next year and 2014, followed by a full production version the year after. The current pre-production vehicles are powered by AC induction motors capable of 100kW and each vehicle will achieve a 650km range between recharging. Top speed is expected to be 160km/h and the acceleration time to 100km/h from a standing start will be around 12.9 seconds — a second slower than the previous generation Tucson FCV, which was powered by a more expensive permanent magnet motor.
2015 marks a break-through for FCVs. Within the next three years the hydrogen infrastructure in support of FCVs will expand at a geometric rate around the world. New York state is pushing for 100 service stations capable of supplying hydrogen prior to 2020; Germany expects to boast 1000 stations by then. Other advanced industrial nations are also taking the lead, among them the Scandinavian countries of Denmark, Sweden and Norway.
Before the end of July this year, according to Dr Ahn, 13 hydrogen-capable service stations will be dotted around South Korea — a country the size of Tasmania, but with a population numbering 48 million.
So the industry is flourishing, but there's a shadow overhanging the way Korean consumers will purchase their hydrogen. The volatile gas is produced as a by-product of refining petroleum. Far from reducing reliance on fossil fuels, the production of hydrogen as a fuel for FCVs simply swaps one type of dependency for another.
At least, however, the Asian country is committed to establishing hydrogen supply for advanced FCVs. The same can't be said for Australia.
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