Is Australia’s car buying boom softening?

Australia’s record car buying spree may have reached its peak, according to fresh research.

On the same day industry figures revealed a dip in new car sales nationally, Roy Morgan’s Automotive Currency Report projects a further softening of the market over the next four years.

In the three months to April, 2018, 2.268 million Aussies said they intended to purchase a new vehicle in the next four years – a decline of 66,000 on the previous quarter, or 2.7 per cent.

Perhaps more tellingly, the survey, based on the responses of 50,000 Australians, found the number of respondents intending to purchase a vehicle in the next 12 months had dropped, from 612,000 to 578,000 – a 5.5 per cent reduction.

Norman Morris, industry communications director at Roy Morgan, said intentions were “moderating”, despite current interest still being above the long-term average.

“Official VFACTS sales of new vehicles for the calendar year to May show that the market is up by around 2 per cent, but this research has shown some potential weakness in buyer intentions over the next four years,” Morris said.

“On the positive side, the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence for June 2018 is at a high of 120.8, well up on 112.5 in June 2017 and in fact the most positive June result since 2007.

"We have seen that sustained strong consumer confidence is likely to have a positive impact on new car intention levels which could improve in the second half of 2018 if confidence remains high.”

Roy Morgan’s research coincides with the release of June new car sales figures in Australia. Overall, the market finished with a third consecutive monthly sales decline, plunging overall year-to-date figures to -3.4 per cent on 2017.