July sales post a new record

Never before has the Australian new car market enjoyed the sort of growth seen this year. Every month to date has been ahead of sales for the same month in 2006 and 2005.

July is no different. With total sales of 86,291 units for the month, the market has improved on sales for July 2006 by 8729 units and bettered the previous record for July (2003) by 6770.

Being the first month of the new financial year, July always suffers in comparison with June, when the car companies are off-loading old stock ahead of the end of financial year.

Even so, seasonally adjusted to make allowance for June being the sort of selling month it is, July showed an adjusted increase in sales of 4.5 per cent, relative to June, according to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI), based on figures from VFACTS.

With 5134 units sold, Holden Commodore was the biggest seller during July (more here) and although market share was slightly down with YTD ('Year to date') figures, the VE Commodore was over a thousand units ahead of the VZ model being sold this time last year.

Ford came second in the large car segment with 3186 units sold. This was just 26.6 per cent market share, compared with 39.2 per cent in July '06, but this month's percentage was a small but significant improvement over the 24.6 per cent market share YTD. Perhaps the Falcon's new specification inclusions are starting to attract more buyers to the 'blue oval'.

Toyota Aurion's performance last month was bound to be unsustainable and the June sales had probably contributed an incremental increase in the YTD market share of 16.5 per cent, shading the July market share of 16.1 per cent. Aurion sold to 1925 buyers during July; roughly 700 fewer than in June.

The fourth large car built in Australia, the Mitsubishi 380, looks to be struggling still, with reduced market share (7.9 per cent) during July, compared with YTD figures (8.1) and July '06 (8.2), but in units, the 380 did considerably better than the July '06 figure -- 949 units versus 826 last year.

Reduced market share for the 380 in the face of better sales confirms that the whole large car segment enjoyed better sales for the month, compared with July '06. Furthermore, large cars are fetching a bigger slice of the market pie, overall. Total share of the passenger car market taken by large cars was 13.9 per cent for July, but just 13.1 per cent YTD.

The figure was 13.4 per cent for 2006 YTD, so one conclusion you could draw from this is that large cars have continued to face buyer resistance during the early part of this year, but perceptions may now be changing. We think large car buyers will begin to make their presence felt once more, but it depends on what happens next month.

In the small car segment, the second best selling car in the market, the Toyota Corolla, recorded 4460 sales. About three hundred units down on last July's number, the Corolla is a new(ish) model, but is also a little more expensive at entry level, which may have some bearing on the loss of market share. In spite of that, Corolla's market share for July (23.5 per cent) was better than for the YTD (20.5) and not far behind the July '06 figure of 25.8 per cent.

Mazda3 was the second best selling small car, on 2909 units. Both that figure and market share of 15.3 per cent place the Mazda well ahead of the July '06 figures (2305 units/12.6 per cent). Market share for July is slightly down over YTD share of 15.6 per cent.

After the Mazda, there's nothing else in the small car segment exceeding 2000 units for the month. There's a cluster of cars around 1000 to 1700 units for July. Mitsubishi Lancer (1676 units) is barely ahead of the Honda Civic (1652 units) and in market share terms (8.8 per cent for July) is ahead of last July (7.1) and YTD (8.4).

The Civic has lost market share over twelve months (8.7 per cent for July '07 versus 9.9 for July '06), but has moved up, when comparing July with YTD (7.8) -- and of note, 2007 YTD share is up on the 2006 YTD (6.7), so one might infer that the Civic is going through a growth phase from a lower base.

Despite improved specification, better value, a new TV advertising campaign commencing in August and the news that it would be produced locally in 2011, Ford's Focus (1082 units) had an ordinary month during July. It was outsold by the Holden Astra (1274) and Nissan Tiida (1244).

Market share was considerably lower for the month than has been the case all year, to date, and for July last year. We're forced to assume that Ford reduced their stocks of the LS model in anticipation of the new LT model and were left without enough inventory for the month. Ford has already admitted that the LS run-out was more successful than expected (more here).

Toyota Yaris topped the light car segment, but with reduced market share (24.0 per cent) compared with both July '06 (25.7) and YTD (24.7), and sales by unit had fallen from 2526 for July '06 to 2449 for July '07. The total light car segment has lost some market share, compared with July '06, when the segment accounted for 12.7 per cent of the total passenger car market.

This year, light cars accounted for 11.8, which leads us to surmise that the additional light car segment demand arising from higher fuel prices has been satisfied in the short term and large cars are beginning to matter more to the market again, proportionally.

About 700 units behind the Yaris, the Hyundai Getz (1720 units) also lost some market share (16.9) compared with July '06 (17.4), but remained close to the YTD performance of 16.7 per cent.

A trio of cars all within 100 units of each other occupied third, fourth and fifth places in the segment. Respectively, these were the Holden Barina (1143), Suzuki Swift (1115) and Honda Jazz (1104).

Barina's market share is down from 12.1 per cent (July '06) to 11.2, but the July '07 figure is a substantial improvement on the share of 10.2 per cent for YTD.

The Swift's performance was diametrically opposed. Better market share in July (10.9 per cent) than July '06 (9.2) was offset by a slightly worse market share for YTD 2007 (11.1), but there isn't much in it.

Honda's figures for Jazz are better all round in July '07. More units sold than during July '06, which we attribute to the 'Once a Year Day' sale during the month (more here) and better market share for the month (10.8 per cent) than either July '06 (9.1) or YTD (10.1).

The medium car segment grew by nearly 1300 units, comparing July '07 with July '06 -- and all of those and more went to Toyota's Camry.

Camry grew from 656 units July last year to 1990 for July '07. Market share rocketed from 13.8 to 33.2 per cent, which is actually slightly down on the YTD market share figure of 34.6 per cent.

The whole medium car segment would have been larger still -- thanks to Camry -- if not for some entrants bailing out over the twelve months in between the two months compared (July '07 versus July '06). Alfa 156 is no longer there, neither are Holden's Vectra, the Kia Optima and the Volkswagen Bora. These cars have been replaced, but with the exception of the Holden Epica, the replacements (159, Magentis and Jetta) were all on sale in July '06 also.

No medium car other than the Camry recorded more than three-figure sales during the month of July '07. Mazda6 made it to 913 with a market share of 15.2 per cent -- a long way short of the 26.3 per cent/1248 units from July '06 or the 17.2 per cent market share YTD.

Honda Accord Euro, with 713 units sold was the third-placed medium car, but as for the Mazda, market share was lower for the month (11.9 per cent) than in July last year (19.5) and only marginally ahead of YTD share, 11.8 per cent.

Similar comments apply to the Subaru Liberty on 652 sales for the month. Market share (10.9 per cent) is down when compared with July last year (12.2) and equal to YTD share of 10.9 per cent.

Can you guess what was the highest selling 'Upper Large car less than $100,00' was? Ford's Fairlane sold 201 units, outselling both the Holden Statesman (187) and Caprice (198), as well as the Chrysler 300C (141).

Of course, bundle the Statesman and Caprice together and you get a different story, since the LTD sold just one unit. Fairlane's performance explains Holden's relatively lower market share (25.7 per cent Statesman, 27.2 per cent Caprice) when compared with the YTD figures of 27.4 and 28.4, respectively.

For upper large cars above $100,000, the S-Class Mercedes (32 units) outsold 7 Series BMW (13 units), but its loss of market share in the segment (41.6 per cent versus 53.8 for July '06) was largely due to Bentley, with 12 sales for the month. Bentley sold just five cars in July last year.

The top selling people mover for July was the Kia Carnival on 504 units -- a major gain in market share, comparing the July figure of 37.9 per cent with July '06 (34.3) and YTD (34.7).

Honda Odyssey came next with 297 units and Toyota Tarago very close behind on 267. The Odyssey enjoyed more market share in July '06, but its July '07 share is ahead of YTD. For Tarago, the reverse was true; more market share than in July '06, but less than the YTD share figure.

It was a closely fought tussle in the sports car segment during July. The champ (Holden Astra convertible) with 81 points, lost by TKO to the Volkswagen Eos on 87. Astra's market share for July '07 (11.6 per cent) was less than its YTD figure (14.2), indicating the newer Eos will be a formidable competitor.

The Astra's performance actually shifted it down to third place, one unit behind the Mazda MX-5 on 82. Market share for the Mazda is down compared with both YTD and July '06, but sales in the sports car segment are so small, that fluctuations can be quite large and yet no sensible conclusion can necessarily be drawn from an individual car's sales performance.

Top selling compact SUVs were -- in order -- Honda CR-V (1233 units), Toyota RAV4 (1169 units) and Nissan X-TRAIL (959 units). CR-V's market share of 16.1 per cent was a big mover, outstripping both July '06 and YTD share figures. The Honda's improvement may have come at the expense of its competitors.

RAV4 has lost ground compared with last year, but is on target for 2007 YTD share. The total of units sold was pretty close to the figure of 1195 for July last year, but the market share slipped from 19.3 to 15.3 per cent, reflecting the improving fortunes of this segment and the stagnant performance of the Toyota, relative to the segment as a whole.  

X-TRAIL was the same-but-worse. Over a hundred units less than in July 2006 and market share that is less for July '07 than either 2007 YTD or July '06.

Ford's Territory sales for July were ahead of July '06 sales, but the market share was slightly reduced. Compared with YTD share, the July figure was about three percentage points up (26.8 YTD, 29.8 July '07), so the Territory would appear to be back in favour. This may be partly due to the standard inclusion of DSC for the Territory.

Territory continued to outsell both Toyota Prado and Kluger sales combined in the medium SUV segment, but the big test will come with the introduction of the new generation Kluger (more here), also available with 2WD only -- as for the Territory.

Also, there's Hyundai's new Santa Fe, which is here right now (more here) and being heavily promoted on the telly, so that will make for an interesting comparison next month.

Prado came second to the Territory and although the Prado's sales were slightly ahead of July '06 figures (1076 versus 1055), market share dropped 3.5 per cent (20.6 versus 24.1) and was down against the YTD share too (21.8).

No other medium SUV reached four-digit sales, but third placed vehicle was Holden Captiva on 764 -- a pretty good result for a vehicle that hasn't been in the market that long. Market share of 14.7 per cent for the month was the same as the YTD figure.

In the large SUV segment, Toyota LandCruiser sold 453, Nissan Patrol came close with 429 units and Jeep Commander was a long way back with 34 units for the month. The Patrol coming as close as it did to knocking off the legendary LandCruiser was verified by the Nissan's market share leap from 27.5 per cent July '06 and 35.3 per cent YTD to a whopping 46.8 per cent for July '07. We're thinking there must have been one very big fleet sale during the month of July to get that close.

Luxury SUV sales were topped by the BMW X5 on 300 for the month, followed by Lexus RX on 230 and Benz M-Class on 181. BMW picked up a lot of market share for the X5 (18.5 per cent versus 13.4 YTD and 13.0 July '06).

Lexus has lost ground where market share is concerned, as is the case for the M-Class.

In vans, Toyota's Hiace was far and away the top seller for the month, with 595 units sold, but share is almost 10 per cent down on the figure for July '06. Market share for July (37.6 per cent) does represent an improvement over the YTD figure of 36.3.

The Hiace's closest competitor is the Mitsubishi Express on 239 units (15.1 per cent) for the month, a massive improvement on the figure and market share for July '06, but not quite meeting market share for YTD 2007 (17.0 per cent).

Ford's Transit is third, on 191 units, which is nearly double the sales and the market share for the previous model Transit in July last year.

Toyota's Hilux is the 'hard act to follow' in pick-up/cab chassis segments. It was the top seller for July in both the 4x2 and 4x4 segments. The Falcon Ute was the second best seller in 4x2 models (1471 Hilux, 1176 Falcon) and Holden Ute placed third on 983 units.

In 4x4 models, the Hilux scored 1829 units for the month with the Nissan Navara notching up 1013 and the Holden Rodeo picking up 926. Rodeo's market share for the month shows a substantial improvement over July '06 and YTD share figures.

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