Large cars stabilise

There's still no word on whether Ford will attempt a diesel Falcon. But the company has bought some breathing space for its large car, according to newly installed President of Ford Australia, Bill Osborne.

"We're projecting the large car market to be relatively stable in Australia, from here," he said.

"We don't expect a large, further erosion. From our standpoint, it's all about maintaining and growing segment share within the segment, not a growing segmentation.

"From our consumer research, the segment now is driven by primarily loyalists, people who have owned multiple large cars, people who have either a vocation or a personal reason for driving large cars."

Over at Holden, they're not quite so sure. Both the Falcon and the Commodore have suffered a drop in sales, year-to-date -- and based on that, you could be forgiven for thinking large car sales still have some sliding to do. Admittedly, it's only two months into the new year, with the Falcon in run-out and Holden having just upgraded Commodore. Much of the large car segment's shrinkage in recent months seems to stem from government and fleet buyers -- a point that Holden acknowledges.

"In terms of private buyers, we've been seeing an increase..." says John Lindsay, Holden's National Manager - Media Relations.

"Our private buyers were up 35 per cent last year in Commodore. So if you have a good product and that meets the needs, families are still seeing it as an attractive option."

Holden's large car sales should pick up further once the new Sportwagon (more here) is retailing. The same applies to Ford's FG Falcon (more here), once that's in the dealership.

So the best that might be said, from Ford's point of view, is that the large car market shouldn't shrink too much in coming years. Ford believes it's losing former Falcon owners to SUVs, but some of those former owners may be aiming for a car like the Falcon, wearing a Ford badge, but in a slightly smaller, more efficient package.

Contrary to the experiences of other companies selling into the medium segment, Ford's aspirations for its entrant, the Mondeo, are high and getting higher.

40 per cent of Ford's Mondeo sales are currently diesels, according to Osborne, who admits that the company underestimated demand for the Mondeo oiler by about half.

Asked whether the success of the Mondeo diesel could be a model for the Falcon to follow, Osborne said: "There's clearly -- with what we've seen from Mondeo and some of the other offerings -- a market for more diesels in Australia".

"What the top of that market is frankly, I don't know."

In the meantime, Ford will further test the market with improved supplies of the Mondeo diesel.

"Mondeo sales are slowly building as we establish the brand in Australia," said Osborne.

"Obviously, the mix of diesel orders outpaces our ability to supply and we're looking to change our stock mix over the ground in coming months. Obviously we did undercall the popularity of the diesel, but I don't think you'll see us make that mistake again."

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