Mazda forecasts 900K Aussie market in '09

Mazda has revised its sales projection for 2008 down by 1000 units. With just one VFACTS reporting month remaining in the year (and November sales falling by as much as 40 per cent or more for certain importers), Mazda expects to achieve a final sales figure of 78-79,000 units for the year.

Earlier in the year, and even prepared for a major sales slump in the latter half of 2008, the company was still on track for an annual sales figure of 80,000 units.

Even with the slightly lower figure, the company will break another sales record in 2008, beating the 2007 tally of 77,734. As at the end of October, Mazda needed just 4560 units to break that record and the company sold 5454 units in November, so it has already achieved that record for 2008.

However, 2009 may be a different matter. Although the importer will be introducing significant new product during the year (MX-5 in March and the pictured Mazda3 around the middle of the year), the company's forecast for 2009 will be 71,000 units.

According to Managing Director Doug Dickson, the Mazda forecast for 2009 is just a reflection of the anticipated sales slide for the whole market.

Dickson, who described the market's slump since the middle of this year as "Old Gold chocolates to boiled lollies in a matter of just a few months", explained at the recent launch of the Mazda6 Diesel (more here) that all the year-on-year gains enjoyed by the car companies during the first half of 2008 had basically evaporated by October.

Dickson attributes the sales stall to "consumer confidence, which is a function of cumulative bad news" and added to that bad news some of his own, with the prediction that car prices will rise in the new year.

"Unfortunately, our pricing probably won't last for long," he said. "One of the features of this little downturn we're looking at is the change in exchange rates. In 'Black October', the Australian dollar hit probably its nadir -- it was just about as far down as it would go. I think everybody believes that the Australian dollar has been oversold...

"Nobody believes it's going to stay down that low [US$0.57]; the NAB is predicting that by December 2009, it will be back to 80 Yen to the dollar...

"So, I guess the message at the moment -- and I think all of us in the industry are saying -- is 'buy now', because there is bound to be some kind of price [rise] coming through in Q1...

"The message is cars will never be cheaper than they are right now.

"Our projection at the moment, for 2009, is for a market of about 900,000 units -- obviously down on 2008, which is probably just over a million."

The loss of 100,000 units within the space of a year, assuming that Mazda's forecast is on the money, represents a major loss of consumer confidence, but it's actually about the same level of sales as the industry recorded for 2004, just four years ago. If you look at it that way, Mazda's prediction may be optimistic.

On the other hand, it's up to the consumer. If the general public tires of tightening the fiscal belt and the government's initiatives to stimulate spending bear fruit, Mazda's forecast may be pessimistic.

Mazda itself, with its own sales forecast of 71,000 for next year, appears to be ready for a further downturn in sales, but Dickson is confident that the sales projection will be seen for what it is: "[Mazda's] third best ever year".

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