Mazda Australia Managing Director Vinesh Bhindi is resigned to the brand ending 2018 with a sales total lower than any annual result since 2014.
"We are aiming to finish the year with just over 112,000 vehicle sales," he told journalists yesterday during a presentation for the upgraded Mazda CX-5.
At the end of 2014 the importer had sold 100,704 vehicles for the year – a figure trounced in 2015 when Mazda sold 114,024 cars, SUVs and light commercials.
Mazda's sales are down 3.8 per cent for the year so far, Bhindi advises, and some of that is supply-related, due to a deluge in Hiroshima during July.
There's no doubt, however, that Mazda's lower sales in 2018 are broadly consonant with the local market decline overall in 2018.
"The total industry is in eight successive months of decline since April," Bhindi observed. "And in the last three months, it has been down on average more than five per cent."
Mazda's sales slump is higher than the whole-market decline for the year to date (1.9%), but it's on par with or better than other 'top 10' brands like Subaru (3.7%), Hyundai (2.7%), Holden (28.4% – bloated by the loss of local production last year) and Ford (12%). Furthermore, compared with previously 'blue chip' prestige brands like Audi (down 10.7%), BMW (3.4%) and Mercedes-Benz (12.0%), Mazda's number looks reasonable.
"The overall market is expected to finish just over 1.16 million sales for the year," the Mazda boss said. Last year's sales reached 1.189 million.
"The decline is due to a number of factors that are impacting all brands, such as a tightening of credit and the ability of marginal buyers to secure loans, the decline in house pricing – in particular Melbourne and Sydney – and the fact that all brands are now full-line importers."
But "the fundamentals of the economy" remain strong, Bhindi also noted.
"Private and business consumption is on the increase," he continued.
"We have the fastest full-time employment growth in 10 years; business confidence is at an all-time high, and consumer confidence is on the up – and people are spending more of their savings..."
It's just not translating into sales growth for the automotive industry as yet.
Mazda is shaping up to be a bellwether for the industry in 2019. If a new Mazda3 due in early 2019 can't halt the brand's sales slide it's a fair sign that the industry as a whole is headed for a rocky year across the board.
The outlook isn't all gloom for the importer though; the CX-5 remains the top-selling medium SUV in the country – and in fact is the top-selling SUV of any kind in the country. August was a record month for the brand too, thanks to an annual one-day sale.
And Mazda continues to be Australia's favourite brand other than Toyota – with the prospect of the new Mazda3 promising to revive the importer's passenger-car fortunes.