MOTORSPORT: Alonso to Ferrari; Toyota to exit?

Friday motorsport report
October 2, 2009

F1 driver jigsaw takes shape but team picture cloudy
The next month may just be the best of the year in motorsport.

Fernando Alonso's switch to Ferrari is now official, and it's from next year, while Kimi Raikkonen seems headed back to McLaren --otherwise to rallying.

This weekend's grand prix is in Japan at Suzuka, owned by Honda but which last hosted an F1 race in 2006.

Australia's Formula One driver Mark Webber calls Suzuka "sensational" and indications are that the Red Bull cars driven by him and Sebastian Vettel will be at the pointy end there, albeit too late for Webber to have a shot at the world title.

Many drivers now rate Suzuka their favourite circuit, or equal favourite with Belgian's Spa-Francorchamps -- although TV does not do justice to it, nor give clue to its undulations. The world title might be decided there on Sunday, if Jenson Button outscores Brawn teammate Rubens Barrichello by five points. More likely it will be in Brazil in a fortnight or the new season finale in Abu Dhabi on the first weekend of November.

And next week it's Bathurst. Our very own Great Race. Then, the same day, Ryan Briscoe, the Sydneysider who stunned the V8 Supercar fraternity with his speed and ability in his brief outing in the category in 2006, might win the Indy Racing League title in Florida with Team Penske -- though  he needs to beat Team Ganassi's New Zealander Scott Dixon and Scotsman Dario Franchitti to do it.

Australia's Cody Crocker needs just five points in his Subaru Impreza WRX STi at this weekend's Rally of Indonesia to wrap up a record fourth straight Asia-Pacific Rally Championship.

The World Rally Championship is coming to its climax too. Citroen's five-time world champion Sebastien Loeb is as this story is published racing to overhaul Ford's leader Mikko Hirvonen's five-point gap in the two remaining rounds -- this weekend in Spain and then in Britain -- to make it six in a row.

But, from our view, one big cloud hangs over motorsport at the minute: the question whether Toyota will remain in F1 beyond this year.

Toyota F1 boss says team's future 'unclear'
Honda quit F1 10 months ago; Germany's BMW is to go at the end of this year; and Toyota -- fifth in the constructors' world championship on 46.5 points, behind Brawn, Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren -- is giving mixed messages.

The company has already withdrawn from hosting, on a rotation basis, the Japanese GP at its Fuji circuit, and we wrote earlier this year (more here) that it most likely would quit F1 if it did not score its maiden GP victory this year.

Its German driver Timo Glock delivered its equal best result in eight years in F1, second place, in Singapore last Sunday night and the team may produce something special at Suzuka this Sunday.

Perhaps a win by Glock (who missed today's practice through sickness) or Italian Jarno Trulli (who also has been ill since Singapore) will keep Toyota in F1. That said, neither are signed for next season.

And Toyota team principal Tadashi Yamashina has not helped speculation.

"We will participate for now… We have been aiming for the centre of the podium with a never-give-up mindset… [But] We have to consider a variety of things in relation to our core business… Our participation [in F1] is unclear, depending on our financial results."

Although Toyota has been among the biggest spenders in its eight years in F1, Yamashina wants to see more done to curb costs.

"We must make F1 more cost-effective," he said.

Ominous comments, we reckon…

As the Brawn incarnation of what was the Honda team (and now with a Mercedes engine and possibly the German manufacturer as an investor soon) prepares to clinch the constructors' world title in its first season, Honda has made known its view of F1. In brief, it may be tempted to return if hydrogen fuel cell cars or other environmentally-friendly technologies were introduced, but not soon.

"In the future, if it became a competition based on fuel efficiency and performance, as well as pose a technical challenge, then we would surely want to take part," Honda chief executive Takanobu Ito said.

"(But) I do not see that happening in the near future... We learned about the harshness of manning a F1 team. We need to make use of that lesson the next time we do it, if we ever return."

The scenario for a sensation Suzuka
To Sunday's Suzuka race specifically, and the four paragraphs at the end of the preview on international broadcaster ITV's website sums up the scenario well

"If the results of the last seven races reflected the whole season, then Rubens Barrichello would head to Japan narrowly fending off Raikkonen, Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton in a very tense points battle, with Jenson Button and Mark Webber hanging on as outsiders," it says.

"But unfortunately for Barrichello, and luckily for Button, the first seven rounds of the year count too -- which is why Button can clinch the championship this weekend if he outscores his Brawn team-mate by five points.

"However given that nine of the 10 teams have had a car in the top three in qualifying or the race in the last three GPs, that Suzuka has so many unique characteristics and is uncharted territory for so many (eight of the 20 drivers will be making their Suzuka F1 debuts), the only reliable prediction is that whatever happens this weekend should be a fitting 'welcome back' for one of the sport's all-time favourite circuits."

Alonso turns red, driver market goes green
BBC Sport F1 correspondent and former Autosport grand prix writer, Andrew Benson, this week called Fernando Alonso's imminent move to Ferrari: "the most exciting shift in the F1 fabric for years".

Sharing a view we have often expressed here, Benson wrote that many people in F1 believe 28-year-old dual world champion Alonso to be "the most complete driver in the sport".

It appears that Alonso will earn many millions of dollars less at Ferrari than Kimi Raikkonen, who has been on Schumacher-esque money but been "elbowed out" by a three-year Alonso deal still reputedly worth A$110 million and said to have been done as long ago as July last year and initially to have begun in 2011.

"Driving for the Prancing Horse is everybody's dream in F1, and now I have the chance to make this dream come true," Alonso said.

And of partnering Felipe Massa, after the Spaniard's fractious relationship with Lewis Hamilton at McLaren in 2007, Alonso said: "It will work. Felipe is a great driver, a quick driver but also a good personality. He will be absolutely fine. It (the McLaren experience) will not happen again."

Raikkonen said he was "very sad to be leaving a team with whom I have spent three fantastic years".

"I know more or less the reason, and it's nothing to do with my racing," he said.

Ferrari team principal Stefano Domenicali said Alonso's appointment was a commercial decision -- because of giant Spanish bank Santander becoming a major Ferrari sponsor.

The financial settlement reached with Raikkonen will make the Finn's departure, a year before his contract was to expire, easy to take, especially as he is likely to return to McLaren. Otherwise he could pursue his love of rallying, having already driven in one WRC event recently.

"Maybe I will race, maybe not," Raikkonen said.

"My only aim, if I am going to race next year, is to have a car that can win the championship. Otherwise there is no point."

F1 pundit and former McLaren driver, David Coulthard, wrote this week in London's Telegraph newspaper that "Kimi is unpackageable; he is an outsider in the F1 paddock. If McLaren allow him, he will turn up, drive the car and then go home, no questions asked. And this time, crucially, I think they will."

And of reigning world champion Lewis Hamilton getting a top-flight teammate after the experience of Alonso alongside him in his debut season, Coulthard wrote: "Lewis will be behind him (Raikkonen) on occasions, and that is what makes the move so intriguing, but I think he now has the confidence and maturity to cope with another top teammate and certainly over the course of the season I would expect him to emerge victorious – he is younger and hungrier."

So how will the line-ups in the top teams look next season? Here's how we see it:

Ferrari: Fernando Alonso and Felipe Massa (returning from injury and who has been karting this week and will fly back to Italy from Brazil next week), with Giancarlo Fisichella becoming test driver.
McLaren: Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Raikkonen (otherwise Nick Heidfeld).
Brawn: Jenson Button (likely to be the reigning world champion but needing to settle a dispute over how much he should be paid – already much less than in his earlier days) and most likely now Nico Rosberg (from Williams).
Red Bull: Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber, both already confirmed.
Renault: Robert Kubica, from BMW-Sauber, and perhaps Heikki Kovalainen, an underperformer at McLaren but back where he began.
Williams: Rubens Barrichello, from Brawn and trading places with Rosberg (or perhaps Nick Heidfeld, who would be returning from BMW) with young German Nico Hulkenberg almost a certainty. Williams most likely will have Renault engines rather than Toyotas as it looks unable to secure Mercedes motors.

It is unclear whether Sauber will get a start after BMW's exit, although it has a new partner (Swiss outfit Qadbak with Middle East funding), and Toyota has the big question mark over it.

Of the four new entrants accepted, doubts are being raised about two: US F1, which insists it is on schedule; and now the Spanish outfit Campos -- in which veteran Pedro de la Rosa has been seen as the likely leader driver.

One driver with appeal to numerous teams will be the late Ayrton Senna's 25-year-old nephew, Bruno, who was runner-up in last year's GP2 series and is now racing in the Le Mans Series. The new Senna almost had Barrichello's seat this season and, while admitting "it is not the easiest time in F1", he rates his chances of being on the grid in 2010 "pretty high".

Lurking in the wings still is Canada's 1997 world champion Jacques Villeneuve, now 38 and claiming that some teams are interested in his experience.

"I still haven't made myself indispensable, but there's some interest," Villeneuve said.

Webber becomes team owner
Among the new GP3 entrants announced today is MW Arden, a partnership between Mark Webber and his Red Bull team principal Christian Horner (who owns the Arden team in GP2 and Formula 3000 before that). The new team is Webber's first foray into team ownership and could give the grand prix winner a chance to help the next generation of Aussie F1 stars in future.

GP3 is, as the name suggests, a new category by the creators of GP2 to help up-an-coming drivers. Unlike the similar Formula Three, GP3 will give drivers the chance to compete against each other in identical cars.

MW Arden is one of 10 teams for the maiden GP3 season and each team will run three cars to fill the grid. Other teams include new-for-2010 F1 entrant Manor Motorsport and ART Grand Prix (run by Nicolas 'son of Jean' Todt).

Montoya in hunt for NASCAR crown
NASCAR is getting to the business end of its season in the USA and, while there are complaints from American fans that drivers who haven't made The Chase (the top dozen) become invisible, it's enthralling even from this distance.

Veteran Mark Martin, this week described by Sports Illustrated as "the ageless wonder of Sprint Cup racing" leads after two of the 10 races in The Chase, from Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie "Superman Johnson", who is favored to win a fourth straight crown – a record for consecutive titles.

But, while we Australians admire the progress Marcos Ambrose has made in NASCAR (although he's not in The Chase), the surprise packet of the season has been another foreigner, ex-F1 star Juan Pablo Montoya. Now in his third full season in the Sprint Cup, the Colombian has made The Chase for the first time and is headed only by Martin and Johnson as the show heads for Kansas this weekend.

NASCAR has already worked through the Car of Tomorrow (CoT) issue now facing V8 Supercars in Australia – and, although unpopular, it has been judged an unqualified success after youngster Joey Lagano survived that seven-time barrel roll at Dover, Delaware (more here).

NASCAR Sprint Cup pointscore with eight races remaining: Mark Martin 5400; Jimmie Johnson 5390; Juan Pablo Montoya 5335; Kurt Busch 5325; Tony Stewart 5294; Denny Hamlin 5292; Ryan Newman 5290; Jeff Gordon 5278; Greg Biffle 5262; Brian Vickers 5249; Carl Edwards 5247; Kasey Kahne 5211; Matt Kenseth 3424; Kyle Busch 3395; Clint Bowyer 3311; David Reutimann 3275; Marcos Ambrose (Australia, 17th) 3059; Jeff Burton 2968; Casey Mears 2875; Joey Logano 2842.

NASCAR prizemoney: Matt Kenseth US$5,824,712; Tony Stewart US$5,708,937; Jimmie Johnson US$5,617,026; Jeff Gordon US$5,169,827; Kyle Busch US$5,074,118; Kevin Harvick US$4,919,371; Kasey Kahne US$4,580,052; Carl Edwards US$4,506,331; Mark Martin US$4,338,253; Joey Logano US$4,245,326; Juan Pablo Montoya US$4,182,436; Jeff Burton US$4,141,686; Ryan Newman  US$4,072,850; David Reutimann US$3,985,511; Denny Hamlin US$3,977,614; Brian Vickers US$3,856,336; Greg Biffle US$3,828,534; Kurt Busch US$3,755,784; Martin Truex Junior US$3,719,737; Reed Sorenson US$3,702,695.

Canberra's loss, Doohan RoCs, the other Bathurst and Danica
A few tidbits to close … Canberra, for so long the rally capital of eastern Australia, has not only lost its Asia-Pacific Rally Championship round but also its place on the Australian Rally Championship calendar next year.

The 2010 ARC season is to start with Rally Tasmania on tarmac on February 26-28, followed by WA's Forest Rally on March 27-28, Coffs Harbour in NSW on May 15-16, Rally SA on June 26-27, the Asia-Pacific round in Queensland for the second year on July 31-August 1, with the finale listed for Victoria on October 13-14 but a location undecided.

Motorcycle great Mick Doohan has been confirmed as Australia's second representative -- along with V8 Supercar champion Jamie Whincup -- for the Race of Champions in Beijing on November 3-4.

The entry target for the Bathurst 12-hour showroom enduro on the second weekend of next February is 50 cars following revised regulations that make the 2010 SS Camaro, Ford Mustang GT, Audi S4, S5 Lexus IS-F and the Nissan 370Z eligible.

American female star Danica Patrick will remain in the Indy Racing League next year with Michael Andretti's team after months of speculation of a move towards NASCAR. Although she still has NASCAR aspirations, her priority is trying to win the Indianapolis 500.

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