MOTORSPORT: Bathurst 1000 form guide

There's plenty of hype and hoopla surrounding the 2016 running of the Supercheap Auto Bathurst 1000.

But through all the PR and promotion there's little doubt the usual suspects will emerge at the front end of the field when business gets serious on Sunday.

Remember, only three organisations – Triple Eight, Holden Racing Team and Prodrive Racing Australia – have won this race in the last 10 years.

That's why crews from those teams figure heavily in this list, as well as the fact they are all doing well again in the 2016 Virgin Australia Supercars Championship. No doubt others will pop up at various times across the day, but if they break through for the win it will be a surprise.

By the way, this list is in drivers' championship order, not how we necessarily expect them to finish on Sunday. But you never know...

Triple Eight Race Engineering
Red Bull Holden Commodore VF
Shane van Gisbergen/Alex Premat

A strong second place at Sandown elevated van Gisbergen into the drivers' championship lead by just seven points over his team-mate Jamie Whincup. But SvG has also been the winningest driver of 2016, so there's no argument he has rightful claims to the top spot.

Despite his knockabout, relaxed demeanour van Gisbergen is ultra-focussed and hungry for race wins and championships. He has yet to win at Bathurst but undoubtedly has the car, team and talent to do just that this weekend. If it rains, he'll likely disappear into the distance. If someone has to force their way forward from third or fourth in the last hour to win the race he's the one most capable of doing it.

The New Zealander's co-driver Alex Premat was widely identified as a weak point before the Pirtek Enduro Cup began, but he was actually the best performed of the Triple Eight number twos at Sandown.

Deliver again at Bathurst and Premat will likely become the first Frenchman to win the Great Race and part of the first international pairing to stand atop the podium since Kiwis Greg Murphy and Steven Richards in 1999.

Just what will we get from Jamie Whincup this weekend? His last two efforts at Mount Panorama have featured blazing speed mixed with poor judgement calls – not that he is in any way expressing regret for them publicly.

With Shane van Gisbergen now alongside him in the Red Bull garage the dynamic has changed for Whincup, who had established dominance over Craig Lowndes. The in-garage fight will be incredibly intense, especially for track position so potential pitlane stacking can be avoided.

When it comes to sheer speed, Dumbrell is as good as any co-driver in the field, but occasional brain fades have tripped him up in the past.

The defending champions had an ordinary Sandown 500, but that means nothing at Bathurst, where Lowndes always shines and Richards has won four times (with four different partners).

Lowndes is thriving in the new TeamVortex structure, which takes him out of the Red Bull hothouse, and he has a not-so secret weapon in innovative engineer Ludo Lacroix, who will undoubtedly come up with a strategy surprise on Sunday.

Lowndes has also smoothed out his driving after becoming a bit mistake-prone in 2015. Going back-to-back and securing win number seven would send the crowd into raptures, especially as his mentor Peter Brock is being commemorated at the event this year, 10 years after his tragic death.

GRM arrives at Bathurst in litigation with Volvo and knowing its star driver Scott McLaughlin is departing for DJR Team Penske in 2017. Yet despite all that disruption Garry Rogers' tight-knit team is a genuine race-winning chance.

McLaughlin is focussed on leaving a team he loves in the best possible way. He drives the Volvo S60 exceptionally well and the aerodynamically slick car is a jet on Mount Panorama's long straights.

McLaughlin is also still in the hunt for the drivers' championship and knows a strong Bathurst result is required to keep those chances sustained.

Co-driver Wall is thoroughly competent and understands the S60 very well, having raced it full-time in 2014.

If any team is to come from the second line of favouritism and win this race it will be the #33 Volvo.

The Falcon FG X isn't the class of the field as it was for much of 2015, but Mount Panorama has a habit of evening out the field. If Frosty is in the top few as the race enters its last hour he's a real chance.

Co-driver and team owner Webb is a tremendous asset. He would – like Dumbrell – comfortably race full-time in the championship if he wanted to.

A podium at the Sandown 500 shows Tekno is headed in the right direction at the right time of the year.

Massive test for Mostert who returns to the track that ended his 2015 championship. He has yet to win in 2016, grappling with both his fitness and the 2016-spec FG X, but is edging closer all the time. He continues to show exceptional one-lap speed, so barring drama, he should be in Saturday's top 10 shoot-out. Mind you, here's a weird quirk, in his three years racing in the 1000 he has never officially set a qualifying time. That didn't hurt him in 2014 when he came from last on the grid to win.

In Steve Owen he has an absolutely reliable co-driver. For many they are the pick of the Ford bunch.

There are suggestions that Walkinshaw Racing's decision not to renew Tander's contract will spur him on at Bathurst. That's just utter rubbish, as the West Aussie is the hardest man in pitlane and only ever gives 100 per cent.

His Bathurst record is impeccable and he will be a factor at the end of the day if his new car continues to show the pace it did during last month's Sandown 500 win and co-driver Warren Luff can continue his fine form.

These two standing atop the podium on Sunday night would be the biggest shock result since Garth Tander and Jason Bargwanna broke through for Garry Rogers in 2000.

But it's far from impossible as Slade is growing into his role as BJR's lead driver and the team's cars and strategies are generally good at Mount Panorama. Walsh has also shown great speed in testing this year, so the lap times should be competitive.

But BJR has yet to break through in this race and both Slade and Walsh have been known to ding the machinery. There are a lot of unforgiving walls up here.

Courtney makes his return to Mount Panorama after missing the 2015 race because of the injuries sustained in that bizarre helicopter accident at Sydney Motorsport Park.

If the car is good – a big if with the inconsistent HRT – Courtney will be a front-runner. The next step will be making sure the pit box fulfils its side of the deal as a communications error dealt the #22 Commodore out of a podium chance at the Sandown.

Jack Perkins is an incredibly able co-driver, with a strong record at Mount Panorama. His family also has a great connection to this race as his father Larry is a six-time winner.

Fabian Coulthard is an absolute weapon at Mount Panorama so expect him to be fighting for pole on Friday and Saturday. motoring.com.au's Luke Youlden will also look to continue his record as one of the pacesetters among the co-drivers.

The problems start for these guys on Sunday. Will the DJR Team Penske Falcons have stint-long pace and can the team call the right strategy and then execute it in the pits? Previous 2016 performances suggest that may not be achievable.

But Bathurst 2015 saw a significant lift in performance by this team and it makes sense that will happen again in 2016 as this expanded and overhauled operation continues to gel. Co-team owner Roger Penske arrives on Saturday to take in his first Bathurst 1000.