MOTORSPORT: Changing of the guards

Skaife goes graciously, younger than other greats
To most Australian motorsport fans the racing championships that matter most are V8 Supercars and Formula 1, and right now we are seeing a changing of the guard in both.

By breakfast time Monday there will be an F1 world champion who has not won the title before -- most probably Lewis Hamilton, perhaps Felipe Massa.

In V8 Supercar racing there will probably be a new champion too -- most likely a Ford driver, either Jamie Whincup or Mark Winterbottom. Perhaps Holden's Garth Tander will retain his title, but he too is still one of the, if not new, young brigade.

Whichever way it goes, by the time the V8 Supercar champion is crowned Mark Skaife's race driving career will be over.

Skaife confirmed yesterday that he will retire at the end of this season, at the Oran Park grand finale, on the first weekend of December. Whether one's allegiance is red or blue, or even neutral, everyone must acknowledge that Skaife has had a brilliant career.

The statistics speak for themselves -- five Bathurst wins, five championships (and much harder than the five of Ian Geoghegan and Dick Johnson), a record 40 round wins and, most pertinently in light of where his full-time race driving career will end (there are hints about continuing endurance co-driving), he's won six times at Oran Park.

Skaife has been a great champion of the championship -- of the importance of the whole season, rather than just one race (Bathurst, of course).

In the early days the Australian Touring Car Championship was a single event but over time it grew into a series and these days is 14 rounds.

We recall talking at length with Skaife after he won his 1994 title -- his first in a Holden, after his '92 triumph in a Nissan -- and the satisfaction he felt at having put together a whole season of excellence.

That's a feeling all those who have taken the title over the years it has been a championship of many rounds would rightly feel.

But we note that in reflecting on his career yesterday Skaife talked of the "great memories (of) winning Bathurst, coming from last to first at Oran Park, winning Bathurst on Todd Kelly's birthday".

It just reinforced to us that, no matter how much bigger the championship has become, the Great Race still matters most. We had felt until recently, and written here numerous times, that calls for Skaife to retire had been premature and unfair.

Like him, we've come around to the view that now probably is the right time to bow out.

As he says he did, our opinion turned when we saw that mistake up the mountain at Bathurst earlier this month and the sense at the Gold Coast Indy that the fanatical commitment for which Skaife has been renowned just wasn't there any longer.

Nonetheless, we feel a bit sad -- and we bet Skaife does too -- that his race driving career is effectively ending at 41. That's much younger than many other greats of the sport.

Brock, Johnson, Richards and Moffat all went on racing touring cars much longer than that -- and sometimes winning.

Of course, other opportunities will open up for Skaife and no doubt he will throw himself into whatever he takes on with boundless enthusiasm, but we can't help feeling -- and we bet he does too -- that he's been a bit cheated somewhere along the line here.

While he has handled his retirement announcement with dignity and diplomacy, and insists it is his own decision, there is much more to it. We don't profess to know all the ins-and-outs of the situation, although we know a couple of people who we are sure know much more about it than most.

It will be very interesting to see how, even if, all that unravels over coming years. And, more immediately, how the 50-50 ownership of Holden Racing Team by Skaife and Tom Walkinshaw proceeds.

On the track it was a brave person who would have bet, until recently, against Mark Skaife. But in off-track machinations Tom Walkinshaw has proven himself, at least in Australia, a man as accomplished at engineering things his way as he has been at engineering winning race cars at various times.

For now, though, congratulations to Skaife on his achievements on the circuits of Australia and best wishes for whatever the future holds.

On the future of the HRT/Walkinshaw/HSV Dealer Team stable, things are already taking shape.

While it hasn't been confirmed, and perhaps won't be until after the season, Will Davison is very much odds-on favorite to come across from Dick Johnson Racing as Skaife's replacement alongside Tander.

A third Walkinshaw car will be run for Paul Dumbrell and perhaps a fourth for a potential star in a revival of the Young Guns program, while what has been HSVDT -- and previously Kmart Racing -- will become Team Kelly, owned by father John and with sons Rick and Todd as drivers.

That will mean Kelly T. coming "home" from the Larry Perkins outfit, perhaps with the Jack Daniels sponsorship -- and perhaps also with the cars to be built and prepared by Perkins.

Most, if not all, of those outcomes look like wins for most if not everyone.

Before all of that falls into place, though, there are three rounds remaining in this year's championship -- Bahrain next week, then Symmons Plains in Tasmania on November 22-23, and then Oran Park's send-off, as a V8 Supercar venue anyway, two weeks later.

It's beautifully poised, with Whincup on 2616 points, Winterbottom 2541 and Tander 2510. These three guys are the class of the field at the minute. They know it, and so does everyone looking on.

We were a little amused to hear Tander say at the end of the Gold Coast round that the remaining three circuits would suit the cars of all three drivers, or something to that effect.

We wondered, if that's the case, what the parity push a few weeks back was all about. As those who shouted that push down kept saying at the time, all year there's been one -- and why only one? -- Holden up with the fastest Fords.

Tasman/Sprint Gas lifted its game at Bathurst, thankfully.

The championship will be a better series with Greg Murphy, and Jason Richards, competitive. But clearly games need to be lifted across the board on the Holden side.

Emphasising that, we missed mentioning in our haste after the Gold Coast Indy that Ford had clinched the manufacturers' crown there. Now anyone paying any attention pretty much knew that was going to happen soon or later, but that it happened after 11 of the 14 rounds is the telling commentary on it.

And, for the record, the teams' championship as the show heads off to Bahrain looks like this: Team Voadafone/Triple 8 4383 points, Ford Performance Racing 4342, Toll HRT 3730, Jim Beam/Dick Johnson Racing 3518, Stone Brothers Racing 3194.

Four of the top teams from the blue corner (even if the leading team runs in a predominantly red livery!) and just one from the red side. And the leading team has almost 50 per cent more points than the sixth-placed HSVDT.

Pretty much sums up the season.

Why Brazil's a jewel in Bernie's crown
The F1 climax is almost upon us. The Brazilian Grand Prix is at a dreadful time for us, in the early hours of Monday morning, but this is the fourth year in a row the title has been decided there and, for us, it's compelling viewing.

Irrespective of all the negatives in F1 -- races often processional, the world head of motorsport disgraced but hanging on to power, talk of cars all running the same engine in the future -- the way Bernie Ecclestone has manoeuvred the championship calendar to wind up in Brazil each season has been masterful.

For 11 years we loved having the last GP of the season in Adelaide, irrespective of whether the title hinged on it or not.

There was great regret in many, even most, quarters when the Oz GP moved to Melbourne, and for a lot of people the heavy sense of loss lingers. But the Adelaide finale was at an ungodly hour for most of F1's TV viewers, especially those in Europe -- the sport's heartland.

From Brazil the telecast of what is now the decider in the championship is beamed into Europe late Sunday afternoon.

Even if the great, anti-clockwise Interlagos circuit in Sao Paulo is beside a slum, the pictures that come out of there -- and more particularly the time at which they come out -- are perfect for Bernie Ecclestone, and F1 itself is a big winner from it too.

Last year it was the most watched sporting event in the world apart from the Superbowl.

It won't figure as high as that in Olympic or football (soccer) world cup years, but it still produces bumper viewing figures -- more than 50 per cent above the season average (close to 80 million versus about 50 million average).

Two hours from glory or grief
Now to the scenario of Monday morning's race. F1 has had seven winners this season, but only two drivers can win the title.

McLaren's Lewis Hamilton will become the youngest world champion at 23 -- and the first black champion -- if Ferrari's Felipe Massa fails to finish in the top two.

Hamilton will be champion if he finishes fifth or higher, regardless of where Massa ends up. Even if Hamilton finishes sixth or seventh he is assured of the title if Massa does not win.

On the other hand, Massa will be Brazil's first champion since Ayrton Senna in 1991 if he wins and Hamilton finishes sixth or lower.

If Hamilton finishes sixth and Massa wins the two would be level on 97 points -- but Massa would be champion on race wins (six to five).

If Massa finishes second and Hamilton eighth the two would be level on 95 points -- but Massa would win on second places (three to two).

So it's game on. Let's hope that Hamilton and McLaren don't make a mess of it all as they did last year, when the then rookie also went to Brazil seven points ahead of Ferrari's ultimate champion Kimi Raikkonen.

While we don't find Hamilton a particularly endearing character, he most definitely deserves to be champion this time.

But all the pressure -- or at least the greater pressure -- is on him, and McLaren -- whose chief, Ron Dennis, has groomed Hamilton for this very thing for more than a decade, when he was a kid in karts and short pants.

Massa and Ferrari are downplaying the pressure on them, but it's there too -- in spades. There are pros and cons for Massa. He has driven superbly here in the past, winning two years ago, and the home crowd will give him great heart.

But that same crowd weighed heavily in the past on Senna, as it has on Rubens Barrichello -- for whom this race may be the last. Far from definitely, but -- as with Mark Skaife -- perhaps its time for Rubinho to go. It most certainly will be the last GP for David Coulthard, Aussie Mark Webber's Red Bull Racing teammate.

Irrespective of who becomes drivers' champion, Ferrari -- leading McLaren by 11 points -- ought to clinch a record 16th constructors' title. But, unlike other teams (like Williams) that value that prize more than the individual's honor, Ferrari races more to have world driving champions than constructor trophies.

The wildcard in it all is the stewards. Unlike precedents established through decisions in courts of law, history is little indicator of what rabbits the stewards might pull out of the hat in F1.

It should be no surprise if a big rabbit is produced on Monday. And who knows what parts teammate Raikkonen and McLaren's Heikki Kovalainen might play.

Let alone Fernando Alonso and Robert Kubica, neither of whom has any fondness for Hamilton -- especially Alonso after his tumultuous season with McLaren last year.

Hamilton will go into the race with the same engine he used in the Chinese GP two weeks ago, under the F1 rule that motors must last two races.

It will even be wound back a little as McLaren plays it safe.

But if it were to fail in practice or qualifying, admittedly highly unlikely, Hamilton would have to drop 10 places on the grid -- and that would greatly lengthen the odds of him becoming McLaren's first world champion since Mika Hakkinen in 1999.

The Ferraris, on a different engine cycle to McLaren, will have new motors at Interlagos. And expect them to be something very, very special -- although the powerplants from Maranello unfortunately no longer have the phenomenal reliability they did in Michael Schumacher's golden days there.

As bad as Raikkonen's season has seemed the Finn has set the fastest lap in 10 GPs -- equaling a Schumacher record, and could yet beat it in Brazil. But that will be pure trivia.

This will be the 25th time the drivers' title has been decided at the last race of the season.

The final-race deciders have been a catalogue of disaster and triumph. Just think back a year. Raikkonen came from 17 points behind to overhaul Hamilton.

But, also, in 15 of the last-round deciders the driver leading going in has become champion.

Everything tells us Hamilton, but something also tells us not to be surprised if it's Massa.

We can put aside all the hype that Ferrari might quit F1 if the FIA (= Max Mosley) imposes a standard engine.

There won't be a generic engine in F1. Or there won't be F1 if there's a generic engine. Anyway, it's all a game of bluff.

Something we should record, though, having mentioned fleetingly at the end of our previous column a report that Toyota was contemplating pulling out of F1 in favor of a Le Mans 24-hour sports car classic campaign is what that Japanese manufacturer has said this week.

Basically Toyota said it would stay in F1 until at least 2012 ... with a proviso -- that it remain a "technical challenge".

"Toyota is committed to succeeding in F1 for the long-term and our objective in F1 is to win -- we exist to win and we are committed to doing that," it said.

"We believe F1 must remain a technological challenge; this is an important point for Toyota and provided this does not change we expect to continue in F1 until at least 2012.

"Toyota has never hidden its interest in considering new motorsport opportunities, including Le Mans, (but) currently no formal plan nor decision has been made on changes or additions to the current programs."

As much as we have had more than enough of the off-track politicking in F1 recently, grandprix.com had an interesting perspective this week on Ferrari's threat to quit F1, the notion of a standard engine and the role of the Federation Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).

One thing we disagree with the author on is that sports cars could ever be more prominent on the world motorsport landscape than F1, but the article is here

A little old man with smart ideas
Believe Bernie Ecclestone turned 78 this week but he's still full of ideas. Now he's suggesting medals for the drivers on the podium in GPs -- gold, silver and bronze like the Olympics.

The world champion would be the driver with the most medals at the end of the season.

On this basis Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa would be going into Monday's Brazilian race with five gold medals apiece -- and Massa, on home ground at a circuit at which Ferrari has excelled in recent times, would have a much better chance of winning the title.

The points system would be retained for the constructors' championship. Something for the agenda at the next FIA World Council meeting, Ecclestone reckons.

Love him or loathe him, you've got to give the little guy credit for thinking.

Scheckter spray for F1's 'big dictatorship'
A huge spray this week for F1, and especially Max Mosley, from Jody Scheckter -- who raced for McLaren, Tyrrell, Wolf and Ferrari.

Indeed, the South African was Ferrari's last world champion before Michael Schumacher's string of five titles for the Prancing Horse.

These days he is a very successful businessman, with a special interest in organic farming.

Scheckter called F1 "a whole big dictatorship".

"I don't like what is happening within the F1 spectacle -- it is disgraceful," he said.

"They are not managing it in a fair way. F1 was always the ultimate technological challenge and the ultimate challenge against each other. But they are destroying it."

Scheckter put most of the blame on Mosley and said it was "incredible" he remained FIA president in view of this year's sex scandal.

The story appeared in London's The Independent newspaper and the full version is here

Some of the excesses that come with GPs
Most of the commentary on Singapore's night GP a month ago has been favorable, although Ferrari chairman Luca de Montezemolo is still bagging it and the world championship's other new street race at Valencia in Spain and we felt there was a signage issue, mentioned previously.

We have now come across some interesting numbers on Singapore hotel room and occupancy rates, contained in a report by business advisory firm Deloitte.

The report we read said: "Revenue per available room on the final day of the event rose 376.4 per cent to US$570.

"Occupancy reached 87.9 per cent, the best performing day during the month of September, while average room rates increased just short of 300 per cent to US$648."

We all know that hotel rooms cost more when there's a GP on in a city, and presumably the Singapore hotels made good profits at those prices, but who is winning here?

Are those rates a good look for an island city-state trying to increase its tourism profile? Aren't these prices obscene?

And how come the cost on the final day of the event was below the average?

The article also said: "The Singapore Tourism Board anticipate an incremental revenue of around US$70 million will have been generated from the event."

Why only US$70 million? Melbourne now claims close to A$200 million a year in economic benefits, while Bahrain claims something like US$400 million -- with the smallest attendance in the championship!

Maybe Singapore's figure is more on the money, so to speak. The other two venues we mention may not withstand too much scrutiny.

The director of Deloitte's sports business group, Alan Switzer, was quoted saying: "The SingTel Singapore GP was one of five races to be held in Asia during the 2008 season. With India and South Korea reportedly aiming to host a GP in 2010, there may soon be seven Asian-based races compared to only one 10 years ago."

That's a reminder of how the championship is spreading further beyond its traditional European base, although the proposed Indian race has been delayed until at least 2011.

What Switzer wasn't saying was that Singapore's night race drew only 50,000 more viewers on Britain's ITV than the delayed telecast of the Melbourne race in March -- which we mentioned here a couple of weeks back, with the query of whether the many millions of dollars spent on lighting is worth that fractional increase in audience.

The full article on that Deloitte report is here

Not so great a Great Race in Britain
On the subject of TV figures, admittedly one of our favorite topics, word just in from Europe is that the audience for Bathurst on Britain's Motors TV on Sunday, October 12, was 10,000.

The Saturday figure was 7000. And four days after the Great Race -- so the following Thursday -- 5000 watched a V8 Supercar highlights package.

Yes, these figures are from only one market, albeit a key market, but they leave V8 Supercars Australia a helluva long way short of its claimed potential reach of 830-850 million.

What's a few hundred million here or there?

Atkinson goes to work in Japan
It's the Rally of Japan this weekend -- penultimate round of the world rally championship.

Our apologies for underplaying it because of time pressures, but the Subaru preview with Aussie Chris Atkinson's chat is here

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