MOTORSPORT: Dark clouds behind V8 Supercars and F1

FG Falcon debut, otherwise more of the same
The new V8 Supercar Championship season is now just days away, starting in Adelaide.

The Formula 1 World Championship starts a week later, in Melbourne.

Inevitably there will be lots of predictions as these series, the two most important to most Australian motorsport fans, get underway.

We'll give our quick predictions for the V8 Supercars in just a moment, and for F1 this time next week.

But, while both these forms of motorsport appear to be weathering the global economic meltdown reasonably well, there are some dark clouds in the background. And they're not clouds that might easily have been anticipated by motorsport fans. More of that soon.

And later -- but we must make mention of it at the outset -- the great Sebastien Loeb has just won his 50th World Rally Championship round -- and his third in just three rounds so far this year.

Motorsport keeps on producing heroes and legends, and Loeb is up among the very best of them. In rallying perhaps the very best of all.

Now, as Adelaide revs up for its much loved Clipsal 500 this coming weekend, including the race debut of Ford's FG Falcon, our tips are that reigning V8 Supercar champion Jamie Whincup will win, that he will retain his title this season, that Triple 8/Team Vodafone will again be the champion team of the year, and that Ford will be the champion manufacturer over Holden.

All of these predictions are made despite Whincup's Triple 8/Team Vodafone no longer being the beneficiary of Ford financial support, and indeed even having dropped the Ford badges on its FGs in favour of sponsor Hog's Breath Café's mascot Hogster.

The only two teams still receiving direct funding from Ford are Prodrive-owned Ford Performance Racing and Stone Brothers Racing. However, we believe Triple 8 to still be the premier engineering outfit in V8 Supercars, and hence our predictions above.

In the short term -- the next 12-24 months -- we can't see any reason why Triple 8 should be in any way disadvantaged by being cut off from the Ford coffers and direct technical liaison. Indeed, its proven technical superiority should more than offset that.

While FPR has made big strides in the past couple of years, we're not yet convinced it is the equal of Triple 8, or that it can be -- even with the closer Ford factory association.

We lean towards Ford rather than Holden in the manufacturers' championship in the expectation that Triple 8/Team Vodafone, FPR, Stones and Dick Johnson/Jim Beam Racing will all be very strong teams, while on the Holden side we can't see the same depth.

Certainly we expect Holden Racing Team, and particularly Garth Tander, to be on very competitive terms with the top Ford teams.

Tander's new teammate, Will Davison (replacing the retired Mark Skaife), has been a revelation in his few short years in V8 Supercars. But -- while there is no doubt about his talent -- we're not convinced Davison's personality and the Walkinshaw Performance culture at HRT are the right chemistry.

And we're less convinced that the Sprint Gas/Tasman team is yet up in the top league, that Garry Rogers Motorsport can get back to its heights of the past, while the new Kelly Brothers team may need at least a year to get its act together.

OK, so nothing too bold in our predictions. Indeed, we foresee pretty much more of the same in terms of on-track results, although we'd be happy to see plenty of surprises during the season.

A blur in the crystal ball
While we can't see the revamp of Ford's V8 Supercar strategy/program having any adverse effect on Triple 8/Team Vodafone in the short, even immediate, term, who is to know whether there may be longer-term consequences.

Triple 8, it is believed, is working to put in place contingency arrangements -- thought to be based on hopes of enticing Toyota to enter V8 Supercar racing (something we can't see happening) or even switching to running Holdens.

Whatever, it is pertinent to wonder -- particularly in this distressed economic climate and road vehicle market, with the General Motors and Ford parent companies in the US in diabolical troubles, and the swing away from large cars amid environmental "greening" -- where V8 Supercars will be in three or five years.

Indeed, if there will even be a V8 Supercar Championship in five or 10 years. And what new incarnation there might be of the Australian Touring Car Championship if it is not exclusively for V8 Ford Falcons and Holden Commodores.

Yet, we often remind ourselves that, when these Aussie V8s became the country's touring car category in the early 1990s -- 1993 from memory -- they were perceived even then to be dinosaurs, yet they have not only survived but thrived for more than 15 years since.

The world is a quite different place, but it may be wise to write off V8 Supercars too soon.

It is something we have touched on before, but which has come into sharper focus for us these past few days -- although in the broader media the dots have not yet been joined.

This is the matter of the collapse of the Allco Finance Group -- a company which little more than a year ago spearheaded an $11 billion takeover bid for Qantas -- and the publicity that Allco collapse is continuing to generate, especially about its former chairman David Coe.

Now David Coe also happens to be the chairman of Sport & Entertainment Limited, a company which we understand to be a 25 per cent shareholder in V8 Supercars Australia.

Now we don't know Mr Coe personally, never having met him, but -- despite all the adverse publicity of the past year -- from our reading on the corporate scene he has undoubtedly been a brilliant and successful businessman. And certainly SEL appears to have been a very successful business, and it remains sound with, we suspect, a very strong cashflow.

And it has an impressive list of clients, including cricket great Shane Warne, Channel 9's cricket frontman Mark Nicholas, poker king Joe Hachem, rugby star Matt Giteau and  AFL big gun Matthew Lloyd. Even royalty -- Capt Mark Phillips and his daughter, Zara -- and media "royalty", Michael Parkinson.

In the boardroom with Mr Coe at SEL are chief executive James Erskine, a low-profile but super-successful and highly regarded operative in the sports and entertainment industries over several decades, V8 Supercars chairman Tony Cochrane, and Basil Scaffidi.

The company has a very impressive website, indeed one of the neatest we've seen, here.

Now there is absolutely no suggestion that Mr Coe has done anything wrong in the context of SEL.

And, indeed, the point must be made that he has not been charged with anything in relation to Allco's collapse.

But we just wonder whether Mr Coe can continue to be the chairman of SEL, if it is a 25 per cent owner of V8 Supercars Australia and presumably receiving 25 per cent, or thereabouts, of the race fees that V8SA receives -- much of which is government -- and therefore taxpayers' -- money.

The new Sydney 400 street race at the Homebush Olympic precinct in December will receive considerable NSW government/taxpayer dollars -- a race fee and a contribution towards the set-up costs, we expect.

In Queensland V8SA receives a fee for its involvement in what has been the Gold Coast Indy, now renamed SuperGP, and in the middle of this year there will be a new street race in Townsville to which the Queensland government is a major contributor.

In Victoria the V8 Supercars race at the Australian Grand Prix, for which they are paid a fee.

The Grand Prix operates at substantial losses these days -- $40 million last year, and predictions of $47-50 million this year.

In Adelaide the South Australian government stands behind the Clipsal 500, so another fee from state taxpayer money there.

Darwin's Hidden Valley, Perth's Barbagallo Raceway (WA Sporting Car Club), and Tasmania's Symmons Plains also, we strongly suspect, get state government assistance towards staging their rounds of the V8 Supercar Championship, although perhaps not directly in the payment of the race fees to V8SA.

Now V8SA's fee for a round of the V8 Supercar Championship we expect is a minimum of $500,000-$600,000 these days, perhaps more -- and in some cases -- probably Adelaide and the Gold Coast -- we would think considerably more.

Melbourne's GP is not part of the V8 Supercar Championship and the fee for them to appear there now could be well above the minimum for a championship round, perhaps beyond $1 million we suspect under  the kiss-and-make-up deal which saw them return to Albert Park in 2008 after skipping the GP in '07.

And the fee for the overseas round in oil-rich Bahrain is probably a couple, if not several, times the standard figure.

Then there's the fee from New Zealand's Hamilton round, although we're not sure that would involve government money.

Whatever the actual numbers, many millions of dollars of race fees flow into the V8SA coffers.

And quite a lot of that money must be from state governments around Australia.

And SEL is a 25 per cent shareholder in V8SA, so therefore -- in some way or other -- surely entitled to 25 per cent of V8SA's income, or at least its profits. And David Coe is chairman of that SEL.

And, again, as we said earlier -- and we repeat, in fairness to the man -- there is no suggestion he has done anything wrong at SEL, and he has not been charged with anything in relation to Allco.

Under the headline in last Friday's Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) 'Financial wizards hear the watchdog's bark', Michael West -- who appears to be Fairfax Media's main financial/business commentator these days -- wrote in a front page article that Mr Coe and associate Gordon Fell "face legal action over a series of 'unreasonable transactions' and an investigation by the corporate regulator of the collapse of Allco Finance Group".

West wrote that Mr Coe and Mr Fell "had built their respective Allco and Rubicon empires on billions of dollars in debt and a maze of 65 byzantine financial structures stretching as far as the Cayman Islands tax haven".

"Their soaring fortunes came down to earth with a thud last year as global debt markets iced over and the share market plunged," West wrote.

He reported that the company appointed as administrator, McGrathNicol, "is pursuing legal action to recover millions lost in what it calls 'uncommercial transactions' ".

West wrote that Mr Coe, Mr Fell and Mr Matthew Cooper, a director of Rubicon, had shared in a $63.7 million cash windfall.

"These and other 'related party transactions' have come under investigation from the administrators who are seeking to claw back money from the collapse for Allco creditors," he wrote.

And West recounted that Allco's financial statements "incorrectly recorded a $1.9 billion debt that was due to be repaid in 12 months as a long-term liability, thereby misleading investors and the share market".

Allco ultimately recorded a $1.73 billion loss last year. It went into administration in November after its shares tumbled from a peak of $13.23 in February 2007.

The SMH carried much more on Allco's affairs last Friday than West's story.

On the business pages one of West's colleagues, Scott Rochfort, reported: "The administrator of Allco Finance Group has urged the corporate regulator to step up its investigations into the company, after questioning $1.1 billion worth of transactions, including a previously undisclosed $50 million related-party loan."

Rochfort wrote that administrator McGrathNicol recommended Allco be put into liquidation.

"The administrator signaled it could also seek to recover the $52 million in cash Allco Finance paid its former directors David Coe and Gordon Fell as part of its controversial cash and scrip takeover of the real estate asset manager Rubicon in late 2007," Rochfort wrote.

In an analysis in those same SMH business pages, Elisabeth Sexton wrote that the administrator's report on Allco "contains plenty to make creditors wonder what the executives were up to before he was appointed voluntary administrator" and that the report "suggests a company in quite a mess".

And columnist Elizabeth Knight -- the fourth SMH writer on the same subject on the same day -- mentioned "unseemly detail" and Allco having been "an accident waiting to happen".

Knight wrote that "even the most generous interpretation" of one deal was that it had been "commercially stupid".

She also said that some actions of the Allco directors "appear to be an abuse of public company funds and administrators McGrathNicol are assessing whether any action will be brought".

Now this is all strong stuff. Very strong stuff.

But again we make the point that David Coe has not been charged with any offences, and there is most certainly no suggestion that he has done anything wrong as chairman of SEL.

However, the sheer weight of allegations in the administrator's report and the SMH coverage raises the question of whether Mr Coe ought to stand down from SEL until the air is cleared on the Allco affairs.

It is an unfortunate dark cloud hanging over SEL, which is a key player -- perhaps the key player -- in V8 Supercars Australia.

Doubts about whether F1's the full quid
On the subject of dark clouds, there is one (probably more) emerging over F1 too.

An article on the websites of London's Guardian and Observer newspapers has come to our attention, reporting that worried lenders of vast amounts of money in deals involving F1 and the mighty Manchester United soccer club are selling that debt to others at "knockdown prices".

It begins: "Lenders to Formula One and Manchester United ... have been selling on loans taken out by the two businesses at deeply distressed prices as they grow concerned about the ability of heavily-indebted companies to meet interest payments through a recession."

It should immediately be pointed out that this is not so much a headache for F1 supremo Bernie Ecclestone as the CVC private equity group which owns 75 per cent, perhaps even more, of the F1 empire nowadays.

The Guardian/Observer story continues: "At Formula One, debt investors have even deeper concerns (than at Manchester United).

"Senior debt issued to fund private equity firm CVC Capital's 2006 takeover of the sport's commercial rights is trading at 51 pence in the pound.

"The company, run by Bernie Ecclestone, was shaken by the shock exit of the Honda team three months ago.

"The move has led to speculation that others could also drop out and investor concerns that a greater share of earnings from the sport may have to be passed on to struggling teams."

The full report is here.

Toyota came close to quitting F1
Am pleased we were reading the tea leaves correctly on Toyota's F1 program when we wrote this here.

Toyota's F1 team principal Tadashi Yamashina has now revealed just how hard he had to fight to keep the giant Japanese manufacturer's German-based F1 project alive.

Yamashina has been quoted by Japan's Daily Yomiuri newspaper, here that there was enormous pressure within Toyota to quit F1 after Honda announced its withdrawal from the sport last December 5.

He said Toyota's continued involvement was in the balance right up until its announcement on December 22 -- and that the support of the team's major sponsor, fellow Japanese company Panasonic, was crucial to Toyota staying in F1.

Yamashina said that participating in F1 since 2002 had "helped to invigorate our company and contributed to the sales of our products".

But, as we wrote two months ago, he said: "We must win (in 2009). I'm sure of our team's potential to win a GP title after watching the final test on Thursday. Our team is definitely better than that of last year."

Indeed, while we are always skeptical of pre-season testing form, there is a strong feeling in the F1 paddock that Toyota is finally on the verge of stepping up to the level of BMW and Renault, if not joining the "big boys" -- Ferrari and McLaren.

There is serious concern at McLaren though after last week's Catalunya test that its MP4-24 has a major aerodynamic issue -- lack of downforce.

There also is almost consensus in the F1 paddock that the surprising speed of BrawnGP -- the reborn Honda F1 outfit -- is genuine.

Almost too good to be true though, in our view. We'll wait until the early evening of Saturday, March 28, at Melbourne's Albert Park, to see if the BrawnGP speed is as real as is supposed.

McLaren's new principal continues tradition
McLaren's Ron Dennis became famous for Ronspeak, and now his successor as team principal, Martin Whitmarsh, seems intent on creating Martinspeak.

Here's his starting contribution: "Our Mercedes-Benz engine is strong, we saw that last year, so MP4-24's performance shortfall is clearly chassis-centric.

"It is a car's aero aspect that confers the greatest pluses and minuses to its overall performance package, and that would appear to be the case with MP4-24."

When we see or hear claptrap like that we give thanks that there's Ferrari, Renault's Flavio Briatore, Williams' Patrick Head and Gerhard Berger -- and, even more, we lament the passing from the F1 paddock of Aussie Paul Stoddart and Minardi.

Incidentally, Ron Dennis remains McLaren chairman and will attend most GPs. Just hope we don't have to cop Ronspeak and Martinspeak at the same time!

Driving a GP car with a BlackBerry
Some pretty heavy going/reading today, so here's something light and bright to break it up.

We came across a link with the title 'Controlling a Formula 1 car with a BlackBerry Storm'. Can't be sure that it's for real but we got nearly 4 minutes of light relief out of it. It's here.

Half a ton of wins, a ton of sheer brilliance
Belatedly, we get back to rallying's Sebastien Loeb and his 50th WRC victory -- in Cyprus at the weekend.

The Citroen superstar said: "50 is a really big number, a nice number. I'm really happy with what we are achieving at the moment, but it's not finished. We're not stopping yet."

Not this year anyway. Loeb has won all three rallies so far in this WRC season and looks like continuing to rewrite the record books. But he has dropped the big hint, as we reported here at the end of last week, that he may walk away from rallying if the sport's governors press on with plans for Super 2000 cars without turbochargers.

Mikko Hirvonen is doing his best to keep up with Loeb this season, but his best -- and that of his Ford Focus -- is not enough against Loeb and his Citroen C4.

However, the Finn is only eight points behind the Frenchman and one big slip-up by Loeb could open a door for Hirvonen. But even then, for how long?

As rally drivers go, Sebastien Loeb is in another world. As much as rallying needs to keep him, how good would it be to see him somewhere else -- especially F1?

Solberg on podium, hope for Atkinson
Norwegian Petter Solberg -- who was Australian Chris Atkinson's Subaru factory teammate for four years until the Japanese manufacturer suddenly withdrew from the WRC at the end of last year -- was on the podium in Cyprus.

It was only Solberg's second start as an owner-driver with an outdated Citroen Xsara.

The unlucky Atkinson is still trying to rekindle his career -- and his hopes with the Citroen Junior team with which he did the season opener in Ireland may just have been improved.

Junior world champion Sebastien Ogier crashed out less than 1km from the finish in Cyprus.

Ogier had recovered from a rollover on the second leg of the event and worked his way back to fifth place, ahead of British driver Matthew Wilson in a Stobart Ford.

Wilson then stalled on the second last stage but responded by setting the equal fastest time on the final stage -- and Ogier crashed while trying to retain fifth.

Ogier is a fixture in that Citroen Junior team, but this may just have been a reminder that it could hedge its bets by fielding Atko as well.

World Rally Championship manufacturer standings -- Citroen Total WRT 48 points, BP Ford Abu Dhabi WRT 32, Stobart VK M-Sport Ford 22, Citroen Junior Rally Team 11, Munchi's Ford WRT 3.

WRC driver standings -- S Loeb 30, M Hirvonen 22, D Sordo 17, H Solberg 10, P Solberg 9, M Wilson 8, J-M Latvala 6, C Atkinson 4.

More follow-up on the Rally of Cyprus here.

Gold Coast gets sponsor, A1GP to get a home
A naming rights sponsor will be announced on Wednesday for the Gold Coast's Super GP, formerly Indy, which may go some way to hosing down the hostile publicity the event has copped on its home ground recently.

And, unlike the news of the name change (from Indy to SuperGP) in Brisbane, this announcement will be made on the Gold Coast. Indeed, in the pitlane at the track.

The SuperGP on October 22-25 will be one of the first rounds of the fifth A1GP "World Cup of Motorsport" and Round 11 of the V8 Supercar Championship.

Meanwhile, A1GP is to make its home in Portugal.

A1GP chairman Tony Teixeira has bought a site at the new Algarve Motorpark and construction is supposed to start soon. More here.

As always with Teixeira, there is meant to be a whole lot more with it -- he's talking of running an F1 team from there too, with Portuguese government money.

Teixeira claimed to have looked at buying the Honda, Toro Rosso and Spyker F1 teams but decided he wanted to start his own. We'll believe it when it happens.

Ambrose's refueller, who chased the tyre across the pit lane and on to grass inside the front straight, has been suspended for the next four races and he and the crew chief are on probation for the rest of the season.

A few things have occurred to us, then and since, about this matter, as it seemed to be rather tough medicine.

We wondered whether NASCAR was giving Ambrose and the JTG Daugherty team an initiation to its ways, especially its no-nonsense discipline.

But, having noted that the tyre was helped on its way by a member of a rival team, we wondered why there was no action on that.

A few questions are now being asked about just that, although perhaps not at a high enough level.

The matter has rumbled along on a website called The Daly Planet -- no not the famous Melbourne establishment of the night! That's the Daily Planet.

For those Ambrose fans, or others, still interested in what happened at the Atlanta race and the issues since, the relevant links at The Daly Planet are here and, including mention of former Australian TV presenter Leigh Diffey, here.

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