MOTORSPORT: Has the V8 Supercar audience halved?

Champions present and past, and a gloomy TV view
Hearty congratulations to Jamie Whincup. But it's a pity now that his winning of the V8 Supercar Championship had to coincide with the weekend of Mark Skaife's retirement.

We can't help thinking that much of Whincup's success got lost under the weight of Skaife's send-off.

Not that Whincup and Team Vodafone/Triple Eight Race Engineering need to be too bothered, as they -- and everyone else -- knows what a hell of a job they've done this year.

And no disrespect or ill feelings towards Skaife. He's been one of the greats of Australian touring car racing, although we still don't think the fans connected with him in the way they did with Peter Brock, Allan Moffat, Norm Beechey, Dick Johnson and a few others.

His farewell was almost over the top, we thought, and in any case we're not so sure that he'll be retired very long.

Although Skaife is meant to remain an ambassador for Holden Racing Team in the future, his wife Toni said something odd in a column she wrote that appeared in some of News Limited's newspapers.

"Mark is no longer involved in the team," she wrote.

Sounds as though the HRT ambassadorship might not amount to be much.

We've said before that we reckon Skaife's too young to be retiring at 41. And we saw somewhere in the lead-in to the Oran Park finale that he admitted, finally, that the weight of running HRT and then the burden of the ownership wrangle, and his debts to Tom Walkinshaw, affected his driving this year.

That was pretty obvious to anyone looking on, and we just wonder, with those weights now off his shoulders, whether within a little while, once the broader financial and economic outlook improves, he might be back driving for someone else.

An unburdened Skaife might have another five or seven or even 10 years left in him in V8 Supercar racing.

It might seem unlikely at the minute, but what chance he might bob up somewhere like Paul Morris Motorsport in the not too distant future? A move away from Melbourne to the Gold Coast might do him the world of good, the retirement of Morris from the driver's seat leaves a vacancy, and while the even older Russell Ingall is in the other car and a long-time foe of Skaife, what's to say they wouldn't make a fine line-up?

Or even that Skaife couldn't be the next elder statesman at Morris Motorsport alongside a youngster if Ingall, who admittedly has been in great form recently, bows out within a year or two.

Now it's us rambling on endlessly about Skaife when we felt Whincup's success didn't get the prominence it deserved at the weekend for precisely that reason!

And now something else is coming on the radar to overshadow Whincup's title.

We've seen since early in the season that the television audience for V8 Supercar racing has been soft, but alarm bells were ringing loudly by Monday morning.

First we heard a suggestion that a one-hour motoring program on the Nine Network, Australia's Own Car: 60 Years of Holden, had outrated Saturday's first race of the Oran Park round on Saturday afternoon. Soon we realised things were a little more complicated than that.

The one-hour Holden program had an average audience in the five mainland capital cities of 359,756 -- which made it the 20th top program for the day on Australian television.

V8 Supercar telecaster, the Seven Network, said in a press release that its average audience across the two days of its Oran Park telecasts was 349,000. That's more than 10,000, indeed almost 11,000, less than the Holden show.

Just why Seven bothered issuing a two-day average we're not sure, because in that case surely the Sunday average was always going to be dragged down by Saturday's. Television networks have never been known to be looking to talk things down; only up.

In any case, while on those numbers above the Holden 60th anniversary program on Nine did better than V8 Supercars on Seven, we understand that in the hour the Holden program went to air on Saturday afternoon the V8 Supercars averaged 408,000 viewers in the five capitals.

So looking at it that way the V8s were more than 48,000 ahead. And so they should have been.

Here was the country's premier motor racing championship, going to air live, or almost live, with a 25-year-old new superstar every chance to clinch his first title, and did, on what for two years now has been Australia's No1 television network, versus an "advertorial" program about a car company's 60th birthday on what for so long was "Still the One" network but these days is very much second fiddle.

Now Seven tells us, in its press release, that it dominated television "in all key audiences across Saturday and Sunday".

It claimed a peak audience of 601,000 viewers in the five capitals, and reckoned that almost 1.6 million Australians in those cities watched all or part of its Oran Park coverage.

It boasted a 31 per cent audience share on Saturday and 36 per cent on Sunday.

But then came a startling statement: "Across this year's championship, 7.7 million Australians in the five major metropolitan markets watch(ed) all or part of Seven's coverage of V8 Supercars," it said.

A 40 per cent overall audience share, it claimed. Sounds impressive, doesn't it?

Well, it's not so impressive when 12 months ago V8 Supercars Australia boasted that the first year of its championship on Seven had been watched by 22 million viewers. That was up from 17.5 million viewers in 2006, it said.

Now remember that the V8 Supercars were televised on the 10 Network for a decade up until 2006, so the supposed 17.5 million viewers were on and through 10. And both of the figures, for '06 and '07, included not only audience figures for the five capital cities but also regional viewers.

That ought to give a fairly good national perspective, and in a sense it does, although in another sense all these numbers are horribly overcooked because a viewer who watches every day V8 Supercars are on Australian TV gets counted every time even though he or she is just the one person.

So at least we have a good idea of how those '06 and '07 numbers were arrived at, and the increase when V8 Supercars went across to Seven from 10 was in large part because of Seven's greater reach around the country and also a change in Australian Football League telecasting arrangements in '07.

All that said, the 7.7 million viewers that Seven is now talking about in the five capital cities this year is a big worry -- or ought to be a big worry for V8SA and Seven.

To compare 2008 with '07 and '06 the latest number, 7.7 million, needs to have regional figures added to it. And the rule of thumb for the regional audience is 30 per cent. And 30 per cent of 7.7 million is 2.31 million, so that gives us a total of 10.01 million... Now 10.01 million is only 45 per cent of 22 million.

It looks, on these numbers, as though 55 per cent of the V8 Supercar TV audience in Australia has vanished this year.

Now, we knew the numbers had been soft all year, in the order of 12-15 per cent down, at times perhaps more, but 55 per cent -- more than half, virtually 12 million viewers (in the way the multiple counting is done) -- is unbelievable.

We'll continue to scrutinise the numbers to get the right handle on it, and we'll be happy to stand corrected if we've got things twisted here. But on these numbers it's hard to see it any other way.

At some point we'll also take a closer look at the Oran Park numbers in comparison with other rounds, because again we're concerned that the championship's final, deciding round is not producing the audience it ought.

We'll say what we said here almost a year ago -- the championship finale ought to attract the biggest audience other than the Bathurst 1000. Bigger than Clipsal, bigger than the Gold Coast, bigger than the 500km endurance round in Victoria in the lead-up to Bathurst (now locked in at Phillip Island for the next 10 years). Because surely that's the point of having a championship -- that it comes to a conclusion at the end of a long season, and that it's a thrilling climax, and watched by a massive audience.

If not, what's the championship all about?

The audience for last year's final round at Victoria's Phillip Island was comparatively disappointing. And those Oran Park numbers don't look too flash to us, although the crowd at the track to say farewell to one of Australia's great circuits that is giving away to Sydney's urban sprawl was fine.

We can already hear the advocates for the new Sydney 400 at Homebush (Sydney Olympic Park) on the first weekend of December next year muttering, indeed every shouting, that everything will be all right in '09 because of the introduction of that street race. But what guarantee is there of that?

And, in any case, let's do a bit more analysis of the Oran Park numbers versus others before we think about next year.

We should point out that last year's statement about the 22 million viewers annually was made by V8SA, quoting numbers from the Mitchells advertising agency (whose research we've leant on quite often this year, and who were showing a cumulative 9.456 million viewers after eight of the 14 rounds this season, compared with 11.009 million after eight rounds last year), while the latest key number, 7.7 million, which as we say needs the regional component added to it, has come directly from Seven.

Our perspective about 10 months ago on V8SA's claim of 22 million viewers in 2007, headlined "The V8 Supercar TV picture", with V8SA chairman Tony Cochrane crowing about the total being a 25 per cent increase, and being proof that V8 Supercars could "no longer be considered as a second-class citizen in the Australian sporting arena", and giving A-League soccer's television deal a kicking on the way through, is here. Some of our subsequent ramblings on the subject this year are at the links below.

It's pretty obvious now that Formula 1 has its headaches and NASCAR in the US has seen softer TV figures and crowds this year, but if V8 Supercars' TV audience has shrunk as much as the raw data we've mentioned indicates, then it is in very deep muck.

We can't believe it could be anywhere near as bad as this, that this year V8 Supercar racing has not had even half the audience it had last year, and 7.5 million less viewers than in the sport's last year on 10 (2006).

If we've got it wrong we're happy to say so. Just tell us how and where, please. Oh, and for the record ...

V8 Supercar Championship Series final standings: Jamie Whincup (Team Vodafone, Ford Falcon) 3332 points, Mark Winterbottom (Ford Performance Racing, Ford Falcon) 3079, Garth Tander (Toll Holden Racing Team, Holden Commodore) 3048, Craig Lowndes (Team Vodafone, Ford) 2871, Will Davison (Jim Beam Racing, Ford) 2495, James Courtney (Stone Brothers Racing, Ford) 2446, Rick Kelly (HSV Dealer team, Holden) 2430, Steve Richards (FPR, Ford) 2416, Russell Ingall (Paul Morris Motorsport, Holden) 2236, Steven Johnson (Jim Beam Racing, Ford) 2163.

Final Oran Park round points: Garth Tander 9Holden) 260 points, Craig Lowndes (Ford) 252, Rick Kelly (Holden) 236, Russell Ingall (Holden) 226, James Courtney (Ford) 222, Steve Richards (Ford) 202, Jason Bright (Ford) 172, Michael Caruso (Holden) 160, Fabian Coulthard (Ford) 146, Paul Morris (Holden) 140.

More reading
V8 TV picture - and bigger pictures
V8 Supercar audience in reverse
1.5 million TV viewers missing
Horror TV numbers on Bahrain

The contradictions of chairman Ron
Further on things that don't add up... We read in Melbourne's Sunday Age of Australian Grand Prix Corporation chairman Ron Walker saying that Honda's pullout from F1 and the international collapse of corporate sponsorship were making things tough for the sport, and that smaller teams may go too.

"Every company is being told review their advertising budgets, and even corporate entertainment, which has been a huge component of F1, is being drastically pared back," Walker said.

The last paragraph of the brief story said though that "Walker does not expect Honda's withdrawal to have a significant impact on next year's Australian GP".

Now that just doesn't gel. And it's the continuation of what has become a familiar pattern from Walker and his lieutenants.

Up until raceday every year now there is boundless positivity: ticket sales are booming, things have never been rosier, they say. Then after the race there's a lull for a few months, but when the AGPC annual report surfaces in October-November each year the damage is revealed, in the form of increasing losses -- now up around $40 million a year.

So while Walker is saying in early December 2008 that he "does not expect Honda's withdrawal to have a significant impact on next year's Australian GP", and can be expected to hold that line until the end of next March, just wait until October-November next year.

By then, if the AGPC's annual loss on the Albert Park race has blown out another $10 million, or even $15 million or more, as it might well in this financial environment, bet your bottom dollar that the global meltdown generally, and the Honda withdrawal specifically, will be offered up as reasons for even more red ink.

F1 teams just won't buy Mosley engine move
On the matter of Honda, not a lot has changed since our weekend perspective. Honda most certainly is getting out of F1, and there are interested buyers.

The team could go for a song; a fraction of its true worth.

There are supposedly three interested parties so far.

We stick by our prediction that David Richards of Prodrive, perhaps with Arab investment from Kuwait or Dubai (or perhaps Abu Dhabi) must be the frontrunner to acquire the team he ran briefly earlier this decade.

The men in charge this year, Nick Fry and technical whiz Ross Brawn, may yet head a buyout syndicate and perhaps convert the cars to Ferrari power.

All of this is set against a background of the weirdest machinations in F1.

While there seems to be general and growing consensus between the authorities (the Federation Internationale de l'Automobile, or FIA, headed by Max Mosley, and F1 commercial supremo Bernie Ecclestone) and the remaining nine teams on cost-cutting, Mosley has clouded the issue by pushing on with his hobby horse of a generic engine from 2010 -- even announcing that Cosworth has won the right to supply it.

Cosworth, of course, supplied almost the whole field, except Ferrari, throughout the 1970s, and won almost countless GPs in its days under Ford ownership.

But times have changed, and Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Renault, Toyota and particularly Ferrari are not in F1 to have engines supplied to them.

They're in it to show their skills and technology, although the global financial crisis is creating pressures to concentrate of the health of their road car operations rather than waste hundreds of millions on F1.

McLaren chief Ron Dennis has admitted his team is looking at a 37 per cent reduction in its budget for 2010 as existing sponsorship/partner contracts expire.

Toyota is unlikely to follow Honda's lead and fold its tent, while Renault -- tipped by many to be the next manufacturer to pull the plug -- is not in as much trouble as some perceive, because it is one of the few carmakers not selling its cars in the US -- the heart of the financial crisis.

Mosley's generic engine idea has always seemed to be a bartering chip, but it's potentially explosive. And F1 cannot afford any more explosions in the wake of Honda's shock withdrawal. Generic engines for new, smaller, "customer" teams perhaps, but not the "big boys".

And, in the present environment, while there may be a buyer, even buyers, for Honda at a distressed price, the chances of new teams, even if they can get cheap generic engines, are not high.

Mosley is playing a dangerous game. But then, as we saw in his sex scandal earlier in the year, he's a man who lives on the edge, despite his conservative dark suits when he's at work rather than play.

Honda's racing on in IndyCar
While Honda's getting out of F1, and IndyCar has quit Australia, the Japanese company will continue to supply engines to the Indy Racing League.

Honda Performance Development is committed to the IRL until 2010 and is in talks with it about engine regulations beyond then.

Unlike Honda's F1 effort, funded virtually totally by the carmaker, HPD leases engines to every IRL team at US$1 million a pop, so it is "self-sustaining".

"HPD is charged with making money -- it is a revenue-generating company," said Mark Johnson, general manager of KV Racing Technology for which Australian Will Power raced this year.

"Honda's F1 team is the only one (in the world championship) without a sponsor, and it is funded internally. It spends money."

Honda also fields sportscars in the American Le Mans Series under its Acura brand, and there are no indications of that changing.

Loeb the most complete rally driver
Rallying's superstar Sebastien Loeb snatched the Rally of Great Britain in horrific conditions and in the closing kilometres -- the five-time world champion's first win in the event, his 11th this year and the 47th of his exceptional career.

In the process he sealed the WRC manufacturers' championship for Citroen ahead of Ford, which had won the previous two years. And Loeb has now won every major rally in the world.

Young Finn Jari-Matti Latvala had led most of the rally in Wales but could not withstand Loeb's attack at the end and had to settle for second.

Loeb's Spanish teammate Daniel Sordo was third and Norwegian Petter Solberg fourth in his Subaru Impreza.

Australian Chris Atkinson crashed his Subaru on the first leg, was flown to hospital for checks after bumping his head. He was cleared of injury, but has wound up fifth in the WRC drivers' championship after being third in it at times this year.

Overall a pretty good year for the Queenslander, just turned 29, but next year he will need to keep making quantum improvement. It won't be enough for him just to outshine his former world champion teammate Solberg consistently.

It will be time for Atko to win. Hopefully the Subaru team, run by David Richards' Prodrive, can give him a car to do the job.

World Rally Championship final driver standings: Sebastien Loeb (France, Citroen C4) 122 points, Mikko Hirvonen (Finland, Ford Focus RS) 103, Daniel Sordo (Spain, Citroen C4)  65, Jari-Matti Latvala (Finland, Ford Focus RS) 58, Chris Atkinson (Australia, Subaru Impreza) 5, Petter Solberg (Norway, Subaru Impreza) 46, Francois Duval (Belgium, Ford Focus) 25, Henning Solberg (Finland, Ford Focus) 22, Gigi Galli (Italy, Ford Focus) 17, Matthew Wilson (Ford Focus) 15.

World Rally Championship manufacturers' final standings: Citroen Total WRT 191 points, BP Ford Abu Dhabi WRT 173, Subaru WRT 98, Stobart VK M-Sport Ford RT 67, Suzuki WRT 34, Munchi's Ford WRT 22.

Earnhardt NASCAR's most popular six years straight
Dale Earnhardt Junior's first NASCAR season with Hendrick Motorsports began with wins in the Budweiser Shootout and Gatorade Duel qualifying race for the Daytona 500 but then yielded just once Sprint Cup victory -- at Michigan in June.

Yet Earnhardt, son of the late seven-time Cup champion of the same name, has been named the most popular driver in NASCAR for the sixth straight year.

Actor Kevin Costner paid tribute to NASCAR for 60 years of racing at the weekend's season-ending banquet in New York, but disgraced himself by referring to Earnhardt Senior as "The Terminator" instead of "The Intimidator".

Cale Yarborough, now 68, was a surprise guest at the banquet and lauded the 33-year-old Jimmie Johnson who recently equaled Yarborough's three straight Cup titles from 1976-78.

"I didn't care if he did it or not, but I wasn't jumping up and down rooting for him," the droll Yarborough said. "I may root against him if he goes to break the record (next year)."

Just 13th after the first five rounds of the Cup, Johnson said as the highlights of his phenomenal finish to the season were played at the banquet: "I feel like I'm watching a movie."

Team owner Rick Hendrick reminded the audience that Sports Illustrated labelled Johnson "Tom Brady in a firesuit".

"But I don't think Brady won three straight championships," said Hendrick, who had Tom Cruise as a guest at his table.

Jimmie Johnson in NASCAR, Sebastien Loeb in the WRC, Lewis Hamilton in F1, Jamie Whincup in V8 Supercars ... what a year, what champions.

Oh, and Garth Tander won the final round at Oran Park, where he clinched his Formula Ford title 11 years ago.

Tander gave his V8 Supercar title defence everything he had, but it wasn't enough against the might of Whincup and Team Vodafone.

At least Tander will have a manufacturer behind him next year (and a new teammate -- certain to be Will Davison from Jim Beam/Dick Johnson Racing) -- while Triple 8/Team Vodafone, which has raised the bar to new heights in Australian racing, won't have Ford, which financially will support only FPR and Stone Brothers.

How ironic that a car so red wins for the Blue Oval this year, but next year won't have the backing of its manufacturer. Then again, the way Team Vodafone does things it probably won't need it.

Image: jamiewhincup.com.au

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