
The mathematics of the 2017 Supercars championship will become clearer after this weekend’s New Zealand round at Pukekohe.
Red Bull Holden Racing Team’s Jamie Whincup is holding back Roger Penske’s Kiwi double-act, leading Fabian Coulthard by just 17 points with his Shell V-Power Racing Ford Falcon FG X team-mate Scott McLaughlin only 10 points further back.
Supercheap Auto Falcon driver Chaz Mostert is fourth 126 points off the pace, while Whincup’s team-mate and defending Supercars champion Shane van Gisbergen is fifth in his Holden Commodore VF II and the last driver in contention, trailing by 189 points.
In total, across NZ and the championship finale on the controversial new Newcastle street course, there are a maximum 600 points still to be won.
These are split across four races – two 200km outings in New Zealand and two 250km races in Newcastle – which are each worth 150 points to the winner.

To be in with a theoretical chance of the championship any of these five must still be within 300 points of the leader come Sunday night and the cessation of hostilities at Pukekohe.
But to have a realistic shot, the closely-stacked points structure means you really needs to be within 100 points or less. So Mostert - the high points-scorer of the enduro season - and van Gisbergen have their work cut out for them if the top three post strong results in NZ.
But van Gisbergen, who extended his contract with the factory Holden team by an additional year to the end of 2019 during the week, isn’t handing over his title without a fight.
“I'll need some help and it'd be handy if some of the other guys in front of me slip up a bit,” he wrote in his driver diary.
“But I'm still a chance, so we'll never give up and keep pushing until it's not possible. It's going to be very hard with how competitive the series is, but you never say never.”
Pukekohe places a huge emphasis on qualifying and is a difficult place to make a clean pass. So getting on the front rows of the grid and avoiding the inevitable midfield mayhem will be crucial. That’s something McLaughlin has excelled at this year, boasting the most poles (14) and wins (seven) of any driver.
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Both van Gisbergen and Coulthard, who became a father of twins last month, have four wins, while Mostert has three and Whincup only two. Apart from McLaughlin, van Gisbergen is the only multiple pole winner with three.
But it’s Whincup, who moved into the title lead for the first time in 2017 after the Gold Coast 600, who has the long-term Pukekohe form line.
He has the most wins with five including two last year, van Gisbergen has two on his home track and McLaughlin one in his 2013 rookie season. Neither Coulthard or Mostert have yet won at the 2.91km bullring.
Whincup is also the star qualifier with six pole positions. Van Gisbergen has four, McLaughlin three and Coulthard one.
Other recent winners are Ford star Mark Winterbottom, current Bathurst champion David Reynolds, veteran Jason Bright and Will Davison, who triumphed in 2013 in a Falcon.
Away from the front of the field there’s been plenty of activity as teams sort themselves for 2018. At Erebus Motorsport, Dale Wood’s departure has been confirmed along with his replacement next season by emerging young gun Anton de Pasquale.

Tail-gunner Lucas Dumbrell Motorsport hasn’t waited until the end of the season to start making its changes, splitting with teenage Alex Rullo and replacing him with Jack Perkins for the last two events of the year.
That comes ahead of an ownership restructure and new alignment with Prodrive Racing Australia in 2018 that is expected to see LDM run a sole Falcon rather than two Commodores. The driver, likely to be one already with a linkage to PRA, is yet to be finalised.
Rullo earned the distinction of being the youngest-ever Supercar championship regular at 16. Now 17, he is presumably the youngest also to lose his drive.
Meanwhile here's what to look out for at Pukekohe this weekend: