MOTORSPORT: Ricciardo's seven-year itch

COMMENT
It’s as good as official now that Daniel Ricciardo won’t be racing for Red Bull Racing (RBR) in Formula 1 beyond next year.

A parting of the ways could even come earlier if Ferrari or Mercedes decided to terminate Kimi Raikkonen or Valtteri Bottas.

Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton are locked in at Ferrari and Mercedes for a while yet, while Ricciardo and his young Dutch teammate Max Verstappen are the leading candidates for any vacancies that arise there.

It’s fair to say that Verstappen would be more sought after than the Aussie. However, remarks this week by Red Bull motorsport supremo Helmut Marko are being interpreted as a sign that the energy drink company’s team won’t let go of 20-year-old Verstappen at any price, while it can accept that 28-year-old Ricciardo’s days with the squad are coming to an end.

Marko said Ricciardo “is already on the market”.

That did not mean that RBR is trying to offload him; rather that Marko knows other teams are interested in the carsales.com.au global ambassador, and that Ricciardo knows it’s time for a change if he’s to win a world championship.

As much Red Bull groomed the boy from Perth for F1 and has given him more than six years of GP racing (initially at the now defunct HRT (Hispania Racing Team), then Scuderia Toro Rosso and, since 2014, RBR), it’s unlikely he, or for that matter Verstappen, can win a world title with the team.

Too often since its dominance at the end of the previous V8 era, RBR has been a comparatively slow starter to seasons since the 1.6-litre V6 hybrids were introduced in 2014. Although it has shown an ability to improve throughout the seasons, RBR’s Renault power units have never been a match for those of Mercedes, and often those of Ferrari.

Yes, Ricciardo has won five GPs with RBR and the Renault hybrid, Verstappen two, including last Sunday in Malaysia, and Renault is talking of coming up with some “magic” to be more competitive with Mercedes and Ferrari at the end of qualifying sessions. But talking the talk is one thing; delivering another.

A change would be good for Ricciardo. Provided it is the right change.

Ferrari is the best prospect for him long-term, simply because it will always be in F1 – and thus committed to F1 and winning GPs and championships.

Mercedes certainly has been committed in recent years, but there may come a time – and not too far in the future – that it feels there is not a lot more to achieve, especially in a commercial/marketing sense.

Mercedes could readily decide to do things other than F1. Already it is preparing to enter Formula E (the electric open-wheeler series) in a couple of years. Perhaps that might become its primary sporting priority.

One impediment to Ricciardo joining Ferrari could (and likely, would) be Vettel.

After four consecutive world titles at RBR in 2010-2013, with Australian Mark Webber as his teammate, Vettel was outperformed by Ricciardo in 2014 – the Honey Badger’s first season in Red Bull’s senior team. Publicly Vettel took that on the chin, but it must have been unpalatable – and he probably was plotting already to get himself into the Maranello stable.

The German may never admit publicly that he wouldn’t want Ricciardo as his teammate again, but the talk (informed talk) is that he doesn’t. And would resist it!

Yet the Aussie could become irresistible to Ferrari. He has Italian heritage, and there has been a severe shortage of quality Italian F1 drivers for a long time. Ricciardo’s healthy, fun image would be a dream for Ferrari’s marketers. And, apart from his extensive record of success and maturity on the track, his stunning overtake of Raikkonen in the Italian GP at Monza last month can only have raised his stocks further.

As much as Vettel has the Ferrari team revolving around him now and may try to block Ricciardo coming aboard, F1’s most famous and revered team showed in 2013 when it called Fernando Alonso’s bluff that it would not allow any driver unfettered power.

Vettel may yet come to discover the same.

Ricciardo’s RBR contract expires at the end of next year. Marko emphasised the point this week that Verstappen “has a longer contract”. That’s until the end of 2019.

He too may want to get to Mercedes or Ferrari before then if he can’t see himself winning a world title at RBR, but he hasn’t yet put in the same ‘miles’ at RBR and couldn’t expect to have a request – or demand – for a release looked on as kindly as it would be with Ricciardo.

Plus RBR loves Verstappen more than Ricciardo, because of his undoubted enormous talent and what he’s achieved at such a young age, even if – in this author’s eyes – he’s not as complete a GP driver as Ricciardo.

The Aussie has been on the podium eight times this season, including a win in Azerbaijan, to Verstappen’s two podiums. Admittedly the kid has had a bad run with power unit failures, and he has outqualified Ricciardo 11-4 this year.

Qualifying is a great indicator of a driver’s sheer speed, but it’s not everything.

The dynamic is similar to that when ‘Super Swede’ Ronnie Petersen and Brazilian Emerson Fittipaldi were Lotus teammates in the 1970s. Petersen clearly was faster, Fittipaldi the best racer – indeed, a master of racecraft.

Mercedes has been the dominant force in the hybrid era, yet it must be the lesser of the two best possibilities for Ricciardo going forward. And it could be there that an opportunity opens up sooner.

Raikkonen is seen to have been lucky to have been retained by Ferrari so long, yet Bottas could be the one to be tipped out first.

The Finn started the season well as the replacement for Nico Rosberg after the sudden retirement of the 2016 world champion, but – unlike Raikkonen – he does not have a contract confirmation from Mercedes for next year, although it has seemed a formality.

Except that in the past four GPs Ricciardo has overtaken him twice and beaten him three times. Those are damning stats for Bottas.

Hamilton may be more agreeable than Vettel to having Ricciardo as his teammate, although whether he would enjoy it any more if it became a reality must be doubtful.

Whatever, Ricciardo will be a man in demand as the clock ticks on his RBR contract. Of course, any lesser team would love to have him, but none of them could take him to a world title in the foreseeable future.

Unless, perhaps, McLaren can get its act back together once it’s rid of Honda power.

But seeing McLaren back anywhere near where it once was is unlikely while it is simply a customer for Renault power units, even if its chassis is vying with RBR for the best in the sport.

Of the seven F1 teams other than Ferrari, Mercedes and RBR, McLaren might just be the wildcard that could appeal to, even excite, Ricciardo.

He has a very cordial relationship with McLaren commercial supremo, Zak Brown.

But it’s the right machinery you need to win the F1 world title, not sales talk. And our Honey Badger knows it.

Crunch time in major world championships
Trailing Lewis Hamilton by 34 points, Sebastian Vettel needs to turn his fortunes around at this weekend’s Japanese GP.

Vettel scored just 12 points from the past two races (all of them in Malaysia), while Hamilton accumulated 43 in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur.

Ricciardo is a very creditable fourth in the championship, with Bottas the man between him and the two serious title contenders.

In the World Rally Championship, Hyundai’s Belgian driver Thierry Neuville needs a similar turnaround to Vettel after dropping 17 points behind M-Sport Ford’s superstar Sebastien Ogier.

The pair had been tied before Rally Germany six weeks ago.

This weekend it is Rally Catalunya in Spain, starting with gravel stages today before two days on wide, smooth, circuit-style asphalt.

After Catalunya comes Rally Great Britain in Wales and then the season finale, Rally Australia at Coffs Harbour.

While Neuville has a chance to grab the title, and deny Frenchman Ogier a fifth straight (the first four of them with Volkswagen before its withdrawal), the Belgian’s new teammate, Norwegian Andreas Mikkelsen, says he’s joined the Korean manufacturer simply because he sees it as the team at which he can become world champion during his contract to the end of 2019.

Winner of Rally Australia last year with VW, Mikkelsen started this season in a Skoda WRC2 before a short stint with Citroen, taking second place in its struggling C3 in Germany.

New Zealander Hayden Paddon is on the sidelines in Catalunya because of Mikkelsen’s arrival, but Hyundai will field four i20s in Wales – Spaniard Dani Sordo is its other driver.

Paddon also is likely to compete at Coffs Harbour, while next year he and Sordo will share duties.