MOTORSPORT: Top V8 racing tipped for Darwin

At some point order has to emerge from highly enjoyable chaos, even in this most competitive season of Australian touring car/V8 Supercars/Supercars racing.

It could come in Darwin this weekend, where after a four-week break the Supercars circus lands boasting nine 2016 winners from 11 championship race starts.

Yet only drivers from Triple Eight Race Engineering and Prodrive Race Engineering have won a race at Hidden Valley since 2012.

Jamie Whincup has won four of those races and his teammate Craig Lowndes three in their Holden Commodores.

The only drivers to knock them off the top step have been driving Ford Falcons for Prodrive Racing Australia – Mark Winterbottom (twice) and Chaz Mostert and (the now departed to Erebus) David Reynolds once each.

So which form prevails? Multi-year Darwin or the championship’s frantic 2016 division of spoils?

Defending championship and championship leader Winterbottom has little doubt about what to expect. The unexpected.

“This year is way more competitive than any previous year,” Winterbottom told motoring.com.au. “It’s not easier or harder to actually win the races, but previously you only raced one or two or three guys at most on a weekend.

“But everywhere you go now it’s someone different popping up … so far it’s been five seasons in five races. The story has been different after every one.”

No doubt set-up and strategy will play a role in determining the weekend’s winners. Figuring out the characteristics of the surface 12 months on from its resurfacing is crucial.

The teams will also have to sort new gearing for the track, as Supercars has mandated a shift to a taller final drive ratio because the cars were spending 2.5 seconds on the limiter in top gear along the 1.1km straight.

“I think we will still hit the limiter if we get a good run off the last corner, but it will be very, very late,” Winterbottom predicted. “It is going to make a difference. It should be quicker and better to drive.

“It should help passing on the straight because when you got a run on someone before and hit the limiter you would just stop. Now you should carry momentum.”

More passing? Sounds good.

So who will potentially be doing the passing and leading in Darwin? The nine winners so far have included two-time victors Scott McLaughlin (GRM Volvo) and Tim Slade (BJR Commodore), who came from nowhere to dominate his team’s home round at Winton last time out.

The single winners have been Whincup (Red Bull), James Courtney (HRT Holden), Nick Percat (LDM Holden), Shane van Gisbergen (Red Bull), Will Davison (Tekno Holden), Lowndes (TeamVortex) and Winterbottom (The Bottle-O), who rolls out a brand-new car in Darwin.

But there are others who will stake their claims up north; Rick Kelly is in hot form in the Sengled-backed factory Nissan Altima, Mostert (Supercheap Auto) must break through soon as he fights back from his 2015 Bathurst injuries, Fabian Coulthard and Scott Pye (who also debuts a new car in Darwin) are showing strong from for rising DJR Team Penske. Nissan’s Michael Caruso is a former winner here and has shown flashes of pace this year.

Then there are the outsiders who could truly surprise – Slade’s teammate Jason Bright could be a front-runner at a track that suits the BJR Commodores, Reynolds loves this place and is a winning proposition although his Erebus Commodore might not be up to the task.

Then there is the Holden Racing Team. The factory squad’s public, painful re-development goes through another evolution for Darwin with both Courtney and teammate Garth Tander’s engineers replaced. This is the sort of place HRT has shown form in the past, but predicting what will transpire this weekend is a fool’s errand.

Through all the 2016 bedlam five championship contenders have emerged; Winterbottom, Whincup, McLaughlin, Lowndes (who debuts a one-off livery in the top end devised by a 14-year-old competition winner) and van Gisbergen.

Meanwhile here's what to look out for at Darwin this weekend:

>> The CrownBet Darwin Triple Crown is the sixth round of the Virgin Australia Supercars Championship. It comprises 1 x 120km race on Saturday and 1 x 200km race on Sunday. Practice is on Friday and Saturday. There will be 1 x 15-minute qualifying session on Saturday and 1 x 20 mins on Sunday.

>> With only two races this year, winning the ‘Triple Crown’ requires a driver to finish first in both outings and claim pole in Sunday’s Armor All shoot-out. No driver has ever won the Triple Crown.

>> All qualifying and racing will be conducted on the Dunlop soft tyre.

>> All cars will have to make at least one stop in the 120km races and change four tyres. They will have to make a minimum two stops on Sunday to comply with the minimum 120-litre fuel drop.

>> The 2.9km track has a top speed of 271km/h but new gearing means that will rise this year. Average speed is 149km/h. The primary set-up focus is on car flow through the varied radii corners and braking performance for two heavy stops. Good drive from the tight final corner on to the long straight is crucial.

>> Hidden Valley’s 1.1km front straight puts an emphasis on engine power. Long-radius turn one puts a lot of stress on the right-rear tyre. The surface is a year old, so tyre degradation level is an unknown. Temperatures in the cabin are high up north, even in winter.

>> David Reynolds owns the qualifying lap record at 1m 06.2526s. Rick Kelly has the race lap record at 1m 06.8659s.Both records will be under threat as they were set last year on the Dunlop hard tyre.

>> Jamie Whincup can this weekend become only the second driver to achieve 100 championship race wins after Lowndes. He sits on 98 wins at the moment. Whincup has a good record in the NT having only missed out on a win in two years since 2009.

>> Carsales.com.au’s Todd Kelly starts race number 221 in Darwin, passing Mark Skaife to be sixth on the all-time list.

>> The lowest starting grid position for a race winner at Hidden Valley is 13. Russell Ingall started 13th to win race two in 1998 for the Castrol Perkins Racing team.

>> Fox Sports will telecast the action live. Channel 10 will replay highlights.

Declaration: Bruce Newton is a paid contributor to the official v8supercars.com.au website