MOTORSPORT: Triple Eight the team to beat at Bathurst

Winning the Supercheap Bathurst 1000 this Sunday (October 7) means one thing - beating Jamie Whincup and Paul Dumbrell. The red-hot favourites for The Great Race have already crushed the Supercars contenders through the Sandown 500 and it is more likely that they will lose the race than someone else will win it.

It’s not just that Whincup and Dumbrell are the form combination for the Bathurst 1000, but they also roll with the form team in the form car. Their Red Bull Holden Racing Team has come on hard and fast in the second half of the Virgin Australia 2018 Supercars championship, with teammate Shane van Gisbergen now topping the points and Whincup closing fast on former leader, Shell V-Power Team Penske Ford driver, Scott McLaughlin.

The Red Bull engineers have learned how to tune the latest ZB Commodore to be fast and easy on its tyres, and (although Red Bull denies it) rival teams say they have an aero advantage that could make the cars up to 6km/h faster than the Falcons on Mountain and Conrod Straights at Bathurst.

If McLaughlin and the Ford fighters have to trim their wings (and therefore downforce) for the straights, as they did at Sandown, they will also be playing catch-up across the mountain where Red Bull were the fastest of the fast in 2017.

Even if Whincup and Dumbrell run into problems, and they have created plenty in the past (including ignoring low fuel warnings from the crew ) there is also Gisbergen and his Le Mans winning co-driver Earl Bamber to take up the slack.

But that doesn’t stop the rest of the speedsters and snoozers, especially the Falcon pilots at The Great Race, from talking up their chances.

“I reckon we’ve got the tools to do the job this year,” McLaughlin says optimistically.

“Anyone’s got a chance,” says former winning Mark Winterbottom, but he will need a bundle of luck for any sort of score.

“It’s been a challenging year, but this one race can get rid of a lot of frustration so we’ll go out and give it a good crack,” says Chaz Mostert.

One driver with more cause for optimism is defending Bathurst champion David Reynolds, who has the huge advantage of motoring.com.au’s own Luke Youlden as his co-driver and an Penrite Erebus ZB Commodore which has been improved since a solid run to fifth at Sandown.

“Who is going to win Bathurst? Me. How can you think about anyone else?” says Reynolds.

He’s a joker, that’s for sure, but he is fast, focussed, and is desperate to go back-to-back with Youlden.

“We’ve seen in the past that Whincup smokes everyone at Sandown. It’s his best track and also for PD [Dumbrell]. Bathurst is different… Most years people talk about that team hosing everyone at Bathurst. But it doesn’t work out for them,” Reynolds commented.

He also says there are changes at the Mount Panorama circuit which means a win at Sandown is not as much of a pointer as the days when Peter Brock would warm up with a win at Sandown before smashing Bathurst.

“Sandown is a very different track to Bathurst. It’s got a terrible old surface and you’ve got to use the kerbs to go fast, but Bathurst is super smooth and you need to stay off the kerbs.

“The hard Dunlop tyre and the taller differential ratio for Conrod Straight also seems to even things out,” the Erebus driver stated.

Reynolds knows what it takes to win at Bathurst, but also what to avoid.

“It’s not the fastest car that wins the race, it’s the smartest team,” he says.

Veteran team boss Brad Jones, who stood on the podium many times but never won at Mount Panorama, agrees.

“Red Bull is definitely the team to beat, but I don’t think they are unbeatable. I think you have much more chance of beating them at Bathurst than you do a Sandown,” says Jones.

“Can they be beaten? Anyone can be beaten up there. It’s a long day, you always have things to overcome, and the silliest mistake can take you out of the running.”

But the Bathurst action is tough and torrid long before the race start on Sunday morning, and it’s inevitable that someone will crash in the practice sessions. Then there is qualifying, and the nail-biting Top 10 shootout late on Saturday. And then there’s the weather – almost drought-breaking rains are forecast for the next two days.

Says Reynolds of the Shootout: “The actual qualifying laps are the best you do there all weekend. You want to be as far up the grid as possible, so when the shadows come across the track in the Shootout you’re going for it with the best grip of the weekend.

“Qualifying is the most mental time of your life. You’ve got to be super brave and super smooth. I see myself as timid and out of control at the same time in qualifying.

“Then you have the easy bit. The race. Settling into a rhythm, avoiding mistakes, and getting ready for the battle at the end with the usual suspects,” the defending Bathurst 1000 champion said.

The Starting grid: It takes a fast car to win at Bathurst and the fast cars start at the front. The grid also reflects the teams doing the best job, both in their one-lap speed and their ability to overcome the inevitable problems during the days before the race. A trouble-free build-up and a committed and confident driver is reflected in the starting spot.

The co-drivers: Teams routinely start their co-drivers to get the heavy lifting out of the way and give them more choices through the day. Once they have done their minimum 54 laps they make way for the A players. None of the number twos can win the race, but all of them can lose it - especially if they stall on the grid or crash in the opening laps.

The Weather: Rain in the lead-up to the race is no guarantee of rain on the day, but points to a changeable weather pattern. Many Bathurst races have been either marred, or made, by a wet track. Last year’s deluge changed the playing field and re-wrote the form book. But even a flat-out run on a hot and dry day brings big challenges for cars, tyres, drivers and crews.

The Brakes: This year, for the first time, there is a compulsory brake rotor change. All teams are familiar with regular brake pad changes, but switching the rotors introduces a new level of complication for pitstops and plenty of potential for something to go wrong. Teams will aim to change under a Safety Car, although most can do the rotors in the time taken for a full tank of fuel.

The Last Hour: The key to winning at Bathurst is to have a fast car after the final pitstops. And track position. The serious contenders will all be jockeying to be in the leading pack in the last hour, which can put them on wildly different fuel and tyre strategies. But most important of all is speed in the car - something where Craig Lowndes (in his last Bathurst 1000 as a lead driver) has traditionally excelled.