MOTORSPORT: Winterbottom can win it

The equation for Mark Winterbottom is simple. Emerge from this weekend’s penultimate V8 Supercars event of 2015 at Phillip Island with a 301 point-lead and he is the champion.

Based on the Prodrive Pepsi-Max Ford Falcon driver’s recent form at the high-speed seaside track, then he could well do it. Frosty has two wins, seven podium finishes (three in the last four races there) and four pole positions at the island over the course of his V8 Supercar career. He has qualified in the top four for the last eight races in a row at the circuit.

Meanwhile, his closest pursuer and soon to be ex-teammate David Reynolds is currently 239 points behind. He has never scored a podium finish in 14 race starts at Phillip Island since 2008 and not finished higher than sixth.

Trailing one point behind Reynolds is Craig Lowndes. The Red Bull racer has a fantastic Phillip Island record, with nine victories, five pole positions and 13 podium finishes (seven from his last 10 starts).

But considering Winterbottom’s championship charge has got the wobbles up in recent rounds, he will have to stage something of a form turnaround to grows his points lead enough to clinch his and Prodrive’s first ever drivers’ championship with a round to spare.

However, his points buffer is enough that he should clinch it on the streets of Sydney Olympic Park street circuit in two weeks' time.

And we’ll point it out one more time. If Prodrive does win the drivers’ championship for the first time it will happen simultaneously with the end of its relationship with Ford, as the Blue Oval exits what’s left of its association with V8 Supercars at the end of this season.

And just to rub salt into that gaping wound for Ford fans, the company did issue a motorsport press release leading up to Phillip Island… about sports car racing in the USA. The chances of any promotion of Winterbottom’s championship-leading form in the Falcon FG X?  Don’t hold your breath…

The reality is it’s not been an impressive couple of rounds from Winterbottom or Prodrive and a recent move by the team to control his substantial promotional and media commitments between now and the end of the year indicates the pressure is on.

Reynolds, who doesn’t have the same profile and commercial backing as Winterbottom, hasn’t had the same limitations placed on him, the Bottle-O Falcon driver making an appearance in Sydney mid-week to promote the championship finale.

There is no doubt that having his contract not renewed by Prodrive has given Reynolds – who moves to Erebus for 2016 -- permission to attack Winterbottom rather than play dutiful teammate. Mind you, there was more focus on the news he has a collapsed bone in his throttle foot. Reynolds insists it won’t slow him down.

That was just one of many news items in a week that proved even though there are only 25 drivers and 10 teams – or groupings of cars if you like – this championship has an amazing ability to just keep punching above its weight when it comes to firmament and intrigue.

So since last Monday:

>> Dale Wood and his commercial backers have been confirmed as swapping from Brad Jones Racing to Nissan Motorsport in 2016 to replace Volvo-bound James Moffat in 2016.

>> Supercheap Auto will shift its significant sponsorship from Walkinshaw Racing to Prodrive, with its vivid colours adorning the currently injured Chaz Mostert’s Falcon in 2016.

>> That in turn is the first official public signal of what is already common knowledge in pitlane; that the third WR entry is being disbanded with driver Tim Slade off to BJR (to replace DJR Team Penske-bound Fabian Coulthard) while the car’s underpinning REC has been sold to Super Black Racing.

>> The Kiwi-owned team in turn announced Chris Pither would step into the #111 Falcon at Phillip Island, replacing regular pilot Andrew Heimgartner. This is being depicted as a test to evaluate Pither for 2016, but you can take it to the bank the well-backed and clearly capable Kiwi will be driving this car next year.

>> Meanwhile, Erebus rookie Ash Walsh has been replaced in the Wendys E 63 AMG by veteran Dean Canto for this meeting as the team seeks more experienced feedback on the car’s behaviour.

By the way, both those moves were initially rejected by V8 Supercars, but after some extended wrangling behind the scenes led by team owner and V8 Supercars board member Roland Dane, the changes were approved.

Here's what to look out for this weekend:

>> With 600 points still to be divvied up, Holden Racing Team’s Garth Tander, Tekno’s Shane van Gisbergen and BJR’s Fabian Coulthard all still have a theoretical shot at the driver’s championship. But those three are far enough back they should all be knocked out of contention by the end of the weekend.

>> The teams’ championship is a tighter fight than the drivers’ championship and as it determines pit order has huge strategic value. Pepsi-Max leads Red Bull by 288 points, with the Holden Racing Team a further 101 points behind. Prodrive has never won it, Red Bull has won it the last four years in a row (also as Team Vodafone) and HRT hasn’t claimed it since 2009. There are 1152 points up for grabs over the final six races of the year so it’s all still to play for.

>> The WD-40 Phillip Island SuperSprint comprises races 31, 32 and 33 of the championship. There are two 60km sprints on Saturday and one 200km mini-marathon on Sunday. All racing will be conducted on the hard Dunlop tyre because of the stresses imposed on rubber by the high-speed circuit.

>> This is the last time we see this race format, because a single 120km race will be conducted on Saturdays at SuperSprints in 2016.

>> Only Fox Sports will telecast this event live, but in two weeks' time Channel 10 rejoins the fun for the championship finale on the streets of Sydney Olympic Park.

>> Mark Winterbottom owns the qualifying lap record in a Falcon FG at 1:30.6099. Red Bull’s Jamie Whincup holds the race lap record in a Holden Commodore VF at 1:32.0246.

>> The 4.445km circuit has some super-fast corners and a flat-out 290km/h downhill front straight. But mixing it up are two ultra-tight hairpins. So while a stable set-up is important, the car must be balanced to cope with the slow corners as well.

>> While the hairpins are prime passing spots they are preceded by high-speed turns that make it difficult to be close enough to get it done. So qualifying up front – as usual in V8s – solves a lot of issues.