New car sales likely to soften long-term

Australia’s insatiable appetite for new cars shows little sign of waning in the short-term, but that will change long-term according to fresh data from research body Roy Morgan.

According to new figures collated from a survey of 50,000 people per annum, a total of 2.23 million Australians plan to purchase a new set of wheels in the next four years – down from a record 2.55 million in the corresponding period from 2017.

The research puts another nail in the coffin of the humble sedan, too, with 30 per cent more respondents saying they’d prefer an SUV over a conventional four-door sedan.

The results reflect what we are already seeing with the latest VFACTS sales data, but longer term Roy Morgan stakeholders suggest the market may soften following record sales.

"Over the last decade or more, there has been considerable growth in the new-vehicle market with rising intention of purchasing a new car in the next four years, but we are now seeing a softening in the market," said Norman Morris, Roy Morgan industry communications director.

“We have already seen some early signs of changes in this industry, particularly in the very rapid changes in body style preference, the move away from four- and five-door cars to SUVs."

According to Roy Morgan, the SUV, four-door sedan and hatchback remain the most desired body styles.

“Among intending new vehicle buyers over the next four years, there is an increasing level of interest in SUVs.

“623,000 Australians aged 14+ intend to buy a new SUV/4WD five-seater within the next four years, up 156,000 compared to the same period last year,” the research said.

“Four-door and five-door (hatchback) cars are the second and third highest respectively, but have experienced a fall in preference when compared to the same period last year.

“483,000 Australians intend to by a four-door sedan in the next four years (down 109,000) and 319,000 intend to by a five-door (down 180,000).”