New car stock on the improve

Fears of a shortage in new car stock leading into the peak late spring and summer selling seasons may well be overstated.

carsales last week polled the top 10 new car brands plus key luxury marques on stock levels and shortages and the overwhelming message was – there are cars ready for consumers to buy.

Only one of the top 10 mass-market brands declined to answer carsales’ detailed questions regarding new car stock, new model launch timetables and sales impact of the COVID lockdown periods. That was Hyundai.

The three major luxury brands polled all played their cards close to their Germanic chests.
Mercedes-Benz flagged shortages on its SUV and AMG models but plead competition concerns on more details, BMW replied in a broad statement without detail and Audi at the time of writing had still not responded.

Market leader Toyota confirmed its new car stock situation had improved since a low point in September.

“Toyota’s stock levels improved substantially across the board from late September. We are now in a strong position to meet expected demand during the fourth quarter,” a spokesperson stated.

In response to carsales’ question regarding particular model shortages, Toyota said: “We substantially reduced the RAV4 waiting list over the past few months. Demand remains strong, which could again push out delivery slightly, particularly for hybrid variants.

“Yaris hybrid has also shown high demand, which could also result in delivery delays. We now have much better supply of core models such as HiLux.”

Industry observers suggest the COVID-related tightening of production in Japan has been of benefit to Mazda Australia, which it’s suggested was holding higher than normal stock of key models such as the Mazda3.

Officially, the line from Mazda was: “Mazda Australia has constantly communicated with head office through the COVID period(s) to ensure adequate supply was available throughout 2020.”

In terms of whether the company had delayed the launch of any new models, Mazda stated: “In terms of model updates through this period, we delivered Mazda3 SKYACTIV-X on time, and have since added the CX-30 SKYACTIV-X and the Pure manual variants.

“Of course, brand-new Mazda BT-50 also went on sale on 1 October, in line with planning, and there will be additional variants in this space, as well.”

Strong 2020 performer, Mitsubishi, did flag some shortages but stated it was “on track for full recovery”.

“Mirage and Triton 4x4 are at slightly lower levels than the rest of our line-up… October will see a return to normal stock levels across most of our range, however Mirage and Triton 4x4 may extend later into November/December,” Mitsubishi Australia stated.

‘Nothing to see here’ was the sentiment from Ford Australia, while Kia Australia admitted it was continuing to face some shortages.

“Our passenger range in general has greater demand than supply. Seltos was initially short, however supply has picked up in recent months,” a Kia spokesperson said.

In a remarkably frank response to our questions, Kia detailed its stock holdings at around three months’ supply and suggested normal stock supply would not return until the second quarter of 2021. It also flagged some new model delays: “All-new Sorento was delayed, all other launch models have been pushed back on average 1.5 months.”

With much of Volkswagen’s production in heavily COVID-affected mainland Europe, it has faced more challenges than most of the top 10 brands.

“Mark 7 Golf stock will be exhausted prior to the introduction of the Mark 8 early in quarter two. Fortunately, Volkswagen customers are aware the current Polo is no longer a ‘city’-sized [model] and the brand is introducing the T-Roc Style by year’s end at $33,990,” Volkswagen Australia PR chief Paul Pottinger detailed.

“It is anticipated that Amarok supply will not continue to meet demand, which is 90 per cent skewed to V6 variants. As a contingency, 200 Special Editions arrive in December. While the Crafter range has a record year, Transporter T6 stock is exhausted until early 2021.

“While COVID-19 took out production for some 12 weeks, the biggest supply issue over the past two years has been the advent of WLTP in Europe, from which VGA brands [including Skoda] are only now approaching full recovery.

“Due to WLTP, Volkswagen has been without a full Passat range. For 18 months Volkswagen had no SUV available under $40,000 – a considerable chunk of the SUV market. While the viability of all models is subject to continual review, Volkswagen has expanded its line-up in terms of SUVs and finally has in place a full range,” Pottinger added.

Nissan’s stock challenges tend to reflect the site of vehicle production.

“We have adequate stock across the entire range, although there is some supply challenge with particular variants and colours. LEAF, Qashqai and JUKE are more challenged, as Nissan’s UK production was halted for some time earlier in the year due to COVID-19,” the company said in response to our questions.

Subaru was significantly challenged with stock levels through much of 2019, so 2020 is in contrast a relatively settled year.

“While we lost some production early in the pandemic, our supply is currently heading back to normal levels, with mid-end October looking a lot closer to where we want to be,” comms head David Rowley told carsales.

With Honda’s local outpost undertaking a review of its business with a move to a new agency business model, 2020 has arguably had less impact on it than some other brands, although the pandemic has slowed the arrival of facelifted/updated versions of key models in the brand’s contracting range.

“New car stock levels were tight for a period earlier in the year, as we were cautious with our initial response to COVID-19, but that position has improved in the last few months and we now have an adequate operating level of stock,” Honda spokesman Justin Lacy stated.

Indeed, stock levels have not affected the brand’s performance to date.

The official Honda response to sales impacts was as follows: “There has been no significant impact on Honda sales that can be directly attributed to stock levels or vehicle supply. Despite the overall challenging business conditions created by the COVID-19 global pandemic, we are still tracking in line with our sales projection of 30,000 units in 2020.”

Toyota’s take is that new car sales missed in the initial lockdowns and the extended Melbourne metro closures will be deferred rather than lost.

“As reported by VFACTS, the additional reduction in total industry sales attributable to the COVID lockdown in Victoria is approximately 30,000 units. Many of these sales will be deferred, rather than lost. Both nationally and in Victoria, Toyota is weathering the storm better than most with a percentage reduction in sales that is about half the industry average, both nationally and in Victoria,” it posited.