November poll boosts October sales

What can it mean?

Granted the Australian new car market was bound to be ahead of this time last year anyway, but if you're a fleet buyer, wouldn't you be hedging bets and waiting until after the federal government election in November before committing to new car purchases?

In fact, that wasn't the case in October at all. For a summary of how the market fared overall, the total market improved by 9359 units, compared with October 2006, year-on-year (YOY).

It's probably no surprise to find that the large car segment did not contribute a single extra unit of that growth. Large cars under $70,000 actually did contribute an extra five whole units, YOY, but in the bracket above $70,000, the segment lost nearly a hundred units.

Top selling large car was the Holden Commodore, with 4440 units. Considering the Commodore is the top selling new car in Australia as well as the best selling large car, its loss of over a thousand units YOY comes as a shock. That translates to a market share slump of nearly ten per cent of the segment.

Ford isn't gloating, since the Falcon posted 2439 sales for the month, over 500 less than October '06 and a decline in market share worth nearly five per cent of the segment. It's also over 500 units less than the company's self-imposed 3000-unit per month sales target in the months leading up to the introduction of the new Orion project Falcon next year.

Looking down the list, a couple of the low-order batsmen picked up share, but the heavy hitter in the segment is the Toyota Aurion. Whilst a long way shy of its best, the Aurion sold 1831 units in October, compared with 343 for October last year. The large car segment's 'stagnation' is entirely due to the sales growth of the Toyota. If not for Aurion, the large car segment's sales would have slumped as badly as the medium car segment's did in October.

The top selling large cars above $70,000 were the BMW 5 Series (135 units sold), Mercedes E-Class (115 units) and the Audi A6 and Lexus GS, level-pegging on 77 units each for the month.

There was significant growth, YOY, in small cars. The segment's total improved from 17,152 in October '06 to 18,419 for last month.

Toyota Corolla led the segment with sales of 4123 units -- an improvement of over 400 units, YOY. Corolla has been sustaining an average ahead of 4000 units since the introduction of the 150 Series model earlier this year, so the October result wasn't too much of a surprise.

Mazda3 came second, with a tally of 3125 units for the month, picking up over 500 additional sales, YOY. October was a pretty good month for the '3', with market share ahead of October '06 and the year-to-date (YTD) percentage.

Mitsubishi's new Lancer sold 1446 units for the month, over 200 ahead of October 2006 and with a slight market share improvement for the month, compared with the YTD figure. We hear on the grapevine that the response from the buying public to the new Lancer has left Mitsubishi slightly red-faced and selling out the first shipment to the dealer network in a matter of days. Presumably Mitsubishi would have sold more cars during the month.

For small cars over $40,000, Mercedes-Benz B-Class led the segment, with 198 units, followed by MINI (181) and the BMW 1 Series on 124, edging out the Audi A3 by just three cars.

Medium cars priced below $60,000 lost over 600 sales, YOY. Here's where pre-election syndrome has hit worst. The Toyota Camry still took top spot for the month of October, but with 1994 units rather than the 3046 sold in October last year. That more than accounts for the YOY sales difference for the entire segment.

Very few cars in the medium segment made it through the month with an actual per-unit sales improvement YOY. One that did was second-placed Mazda6 (991 units), but it was barely seven cars' gain on the result for October last year. The third best-selling car in the segment was the Honda Accord Euro, which did show a small-but-significant jump in YOY sales, moving from 603 in October '06 to 674 last month.

Above $60,000 the mid-sizers picked up nearly 450 units for the month, YOY. All of that and more can be traced back to the W204 Series C-Class Mercedes. Sales for October '07 amounted to 819 units, versus 265 for the W203 model in October last year.

BMW 3 Series has lost a lot of market share, YOY, but the sales by unit are not that far down with 468 versus 500 for October last year. The BMW's lost market share has been surrendered to the C-Class, but the 3 Series remains marginally ahead of third-placed Lexus IS250, which accounted for 435 units sold last month, an improvement of 50 units YOY. As for the BMW, the Lexus has lost market share to Mercedes.

In the upper large segment, Holden's Caprice (218 units) headed its Statesman sibling on 182 units for the month. Sales of both cars combined reached exactly 400 units, out of a total segment figure of 643 units. Of the balance, the Chrysler 300C took 145 sales and the Ford Fairlane sold to 95 new car buyers. Fairlane's sales for the month were actually more than double the figure for October '06 (just 46 units), but still a long way behind the Chrysler and this result suggests that Ford is already winding down its inventory of Fairlane.

For the upper large cars over $100,000, the Lexus LS (55 units), was well ahead of Mercedes S-Class (36 units) and 14 units of the BMW 7 Series. Considering Lexus sold just two units of the LS 460 in October '06, the upswing in sales probably stems from early sales of the new LS 600.

Kia's Carnival led the people mover segment on 424 units, a figure slightly down on the 460 cars sold in October last year. It remained well ahead of the Toyota Tarago however, despite the Tarago (333 units sold) putting on its skates and picking up an extra 120 sales, YOY.

Honda's Odyssey came in third on 155 units for the month, a significant decline YOY, from 241 units recorded in October '06.

Above $55,000, the Volkswagen Multivan (45 units) narrowly beat the Chrysler Voyager (43 units) for the month. Both vehicles have seen major improvements in market share and units sold since this time last year, which is more than can be said for the Mercedes Vito. A figure of 11 units sold in October 2007 represents a slump of 16 units from this time last year. Market share has fallen from 30.7 per cent in '06 to 10.1 per cent for last month. But market share was in line with the YTD market share of 10.3 per cent.

In the Sports car segment below $80,000, Volkswagen's Eos continues to show everyone else a clean pair of heels, picking up 235 sales last month and boasting a grab of 23.7 per cent of the segment during the month. It more than doubled the sales of the Mazda MX-5, which placed second for the month (103 units sold), ahead of the Holden Astra on 95 units sold. So close to summer and the Volkswagen is the only car in the top three to enjoy improved sales and market share.

Above $80,000, the BMW 3 Series coupe and convertible took 296 sales for the month. Runner-up was the Mercedes CLK on 99 units sold, but blasting up on inside straight is the Audi TT, which sold 93 units last month, compared with just eight in October '06.

Over $200,000, the evergreen Porsche 911 sold 32 units, one less than October last year. Ferrari sold 15 for the month, almost double the figure for October '06 and Maserati sold 12, three more than October '06.

Compact SUVs picked up over 2000 units YOY. The biggest seller in the segment was the Toyota RAV4 (1293 units sold -- slightly better than 1224 sold in October last year). Toyota might have seen better sales from the RAV for the month, but suspended sales of the V6 model.

Honda's CR-V came within a killer wasp's gonads of trumping the Toyota, scoring 1291 sales for the month. That's over 400 units better than for October 2006.

Not very far behind came the Subaru Forester on 1173 units sold for the month -- also a major improvement YOY, compared with the 863 units sold in October last year.

Toyota has gone strangely quiet in respect of medium SUV sales. The company's Prado actually outsold the Ford Territory for the month (1273 versus 1190) and the Kluger, which is much more readily comparable to the Territory was right on the Ford's tail with sales of 1173 units for the month.

With Territory being overtaken on all sides, it should come as no surprise to discover that Holden's Captiva is also catching up fast. The Holden posted 1093 sales for the month, so less than 100 units behind the Ford, admittedly with the advantage of a diesel engine option.

It's not as if the Territory is doing so much worse than last year, it's just that the Kluger is doing so much better, as is the Captiva. Even the Prado, with the introduction of a Standard entry-level grade has acquired nearly 360 additional sales it didn't have in October '06.

In the large SUV segment, the Nissan Patrol was the only vehicle to pick up sales and market share. As a consequence of the lead-in to the introduction of the Toyota LandCruiser 200 Series, sales of Toyota's heavy-duty offroad wagon dropped to 275 for the month, less than a third the number of sales and barely half the market share from October 2006.

Expect the situation to be reversed once Toyota start selling the new Cruiser in earnest.

Third placed vehicle in the segment was the Jeep Commander on 35 units for the month.

Lexus RX took top honours in the luxury SUV segment, with sales totalling 499 units for the month. That's an improvement on YOY sales and comparatively similar market share (24.1 versus 23.1 per cent for October last year), but a major improvement on YTD market share. The same pattern applied last year too. Better sales during October than for the rest of the year. Plainly, Lexus dealers must pull the finger out in October.

The Lexus placed ahead of the BMW X5 on 447 units sold for the month, over 200 units better than October '06 and a substantial improvement in market share (21.6 per cent for the month) versus YOY and YTD figures (13.5 and 16.1 per cent, respectively). It seems like BMW dealers were working hard to sell the X5 during October too.

A distant third went to the Mercedes M-Class on 229 units for the month. This was a slight reduction from the 238 sold in October '06, but in a growing market, it constituted a significant decline in market share, compared both YOY and YTD.

Finally, we come to light trucks. In vans, Toyota's HiAce headed the segment with 694 sales for October. The HiAce has shown a decline in both sales and market share this year, compared with 2006, so the YOY comparison of 694 units to 781 in October '06 is not that surprising -- and the Toyota remains far and away ahead of the next closest competitor, the Mitsubishi Express, which snagged 281 units for the month.

Despite being over 400 units behind the Toyota, Mitsubishi can be pleased by the Express's performance, which is over a hundred units better than last year in a segment which showed an overall sales decline for October '07.

Third place went to the Volkswagen Transporter (162 units), which improved on the October '06 sales figure and market share. Its October market share of 9.6 per cent is also running ahead of the YTD figure of 8.2 per cent.

Toyota HiLux 4x2 (1359 units) is over 400 units ahead of the sales figure for October '06. Market share is 29.4 per cent, which puts the HiLux ahead of both its YOY and YTD market share figures in the 4x2 pick-up and cab chassis segment.

For a design with not much life left in it, the Falcon Ute is still selling in respectable numbers, 1005 for October, but that's nearly 350 behind October '06. And market share of 16.8 per cent is falling behind both YOY and YTD figures.

In third place with 877 units, the Holden Ute is showing signs that targeting recreational users ahead of commercial buyers may be more profitable per unit, but the volume is falling away. Although the sales are ahead of the October '06 figure, market share (14.7 per cent) has shrunk, YOY. It is, however, commensurate with the YTD figure.

For 4x4 pick-ups and cab chassis vehicles, HiLux holds sway here too. 1993 units sold in October puts the HiLux over 500 units ahead of the tally for October '06 and market share (30.4 per cent) has risen, both YOY and YTD.

Nissan's Navara placed second in the segment with 1019 units sold for the month. Market share is in no way comparable with figures for YOY or YTD, reflecting the lack of a D22 type entry-level model with diverse variants -- as was the case this time last year.

Third place went to Holden Rodeo 4x4 with sales of 751 units in October. This, and the market share of 11.5 per cent were significant improvements, YOY. The market share was consistent with the YTD figure, but the Rodeo held more market share YTD, in 2006. Perhaps the October '07 result is a sign that the Rodeo's sales are starting to pick up once more?