Oil production peaking, solar gets a look-in

Australia is faced with the distinct possibility that CO2 emissions attributable to road transport could rise from the current figure of 14 per cent to 30 per cent by 2020. But that's unlikely to happen, because few will be able to drive cars by then, once petrol has reached $8 a litre -- a strong prospect by 2018.

Both scenarios were presented at a press conference for a new report tabled by the CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation).

The report, entitled 'Fuel for Thought' has been collated by the CSIRO's Future Fuels Forum, supported by delegates from the Australian Conservation Foundation, the Biofuels Association of Australia, Caltex, Holden, a couple of state governments, the NRMA and sundry other bodies.

Bruce Harrison, of the Biofuels Association of Australia, was one of the delegates to the Future Fuels Forum set up by the CSIRO. Harrison told the media that global oil production was higher in 2006 than it was in 2007. This is a strong indicator that global oil production has reached its peak -- contrary to what the oil industry says.

Another forum delegate taking part in the 'Fuel for Thought' press conference was Phil Hart, an engineer representing ASPO (The Australian Association for the study of Peak Oil and Gas).

"Essentially," he says, "oil production has been flat since 2005 and probably at best, we have another couple of years at around this level -- if things go well and we don't start another war in the Middle East.

"The leaders in the oil industry are very restrained in what they can say by the markets. They can only say what the share market is ready to hear.

"What you need to look at is the people who've just left the industry from those senior positions and they're suddenly free to speak -- and they've got a slightly different story."

So Hart's dubious about the information being circulated by the oil industry, citing trillions of barrels of oil remaining in the ground. He's a champion for renewable forms of energy, including solar power... not on-board solar panels, but solar energy for the entire power grid.

According to the Australian Conservation Foundation's Monica Richter, Sustainable Australia Program Manager, Australians are currently "extremely car-dependent" -- and that's not a situation likely to change any time soon. 

However, she anticipates that as much as two thirds of cars on Australian roads could be plug-in hybrids by 2050. Those cars would be powered from AC/Mains electricity off the grid. Richter sees that additional power load coming from geothermal, solar and wind sources.

Solar power has fallen out of favour in recent years, as closer scrutiny has revealed how problematical it can be, but Hart tells us that it's viable and has been demonstrated in a practical way in the USA.

Rather than converting sunlight directly into electrical energy, the system in America is focussing directed sunlight to heat water, creating steam to turn a turbine, generating electrical power in the process.

The benefit of this method, according to Hart, is that it can dovetail easily with existing power generation facilities -- and could be implemented for relatively low cost.

"Other renewable technologies have a much greater ability to expand than people give them credit for. There are already concentrating solar plants in the US on a scale of coal-fired power stations. It's relatively simple technology and half the plant is steam turbines, which are the same technology as they use in fossil fuel plants around the world.

The method, which is being trialled in Australia as well, involves "curved mirrors that concentrate the sun's rays" and "superheating steam that drives the turbines that generate electricity".

Hart is opposed to nuclear power, because it's hard to do -- and expensive -- "from scratch", whereas "there's really no limit on how quickly [solar power] can be scaled up".

And for those who argue that solar power is incapable of supporting the energy grid's baseload capacity, Hart has this to say: "The reason we shifted some energy uses to the night was because we have these coal-fired power stations we couldn't turn off."

"There's actually very little energy use that needs to happen at night. We've got in the cycle of these home hot-water heaters and things running at night because we have this surplus electricity, but if the energy-generating capacity is running better in the daytime, then we can just shift the uses back to the daytime."

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