Please Consider: Diesel

Opinion

When the top brass at Ford in Broadmeadows sat down to make the hard decisions about what we now know as the FG Falcon, fuel was around 75 cents a litre.

Today we blanche at $1.50 a litre but with various interest groups making semi-serious noises about a Carbon Tax, Australian motorists should gird their loins for a $3.00 litre well before the successor to the FG Falcon rolls out of Broady.

Judging by the fact that only Toyota and Honda have niche hybrid models to sell in Australia, it's pretty obvious that Aussies are content to continue to fork out for petrol and diesel as we know it, while the government continues to provide a rebate for folks wishing to take the step the importers won't, and convert their cars to run on LPG.

As an aside, there are already grumblings in the daily print media concerning the fluctuations in the price of LPG, too.

The local makers each offer one vehicle model line with factory LPG -- all large cars, the very segment in terminal decline (down 20 per cent already this year, according to VFACTS).

Interesting then that private passenger diesel sales are up 61 per cent year-to-date compared with the same period in 2007. Non-private passenger diesels are up 59 per cent, while private SUV diesel sales rose 50 per cent and non-private diesel SUVs grew 46 per cent.

This group adds up to enough vehicles to corner 11 per cent of the passenger and SUV market. Diesel's rate of growth looks to have a head of steam indicating it may not be too long before around a fifth or a quarter of all these vehicles use diesel.

And what better way to get around a carbon tax, than with a low CO2 emitting diesel engine?

The absence of diesel engines from the locally made large cars remains something of a mystery. It's OK to go and reinvent a straight six petrol engine for the FG Falcon that has no other application and indeed a finite two year lifespan, but to measure up the engine box for one of the Ford family's oil burners is apparently too much trouble.

Ford is not alone in having, overseas, a delectable selection of diesels; yet no business case, it appears, could be made for slotting one into the nose of the ill-fated Mitsubishi 380 before the axe fell.

Ford is playing a cautious game with diesel, the new Mondeo having a couple of options. The Mondeo Wagon "concept" on display at the Melbourne motor show gives one the idea they might try a diesel-only Mondeo wagon program to distinguish it from the BF-generation Falcon wagon that soldiers on in the FG era.

For Mitsubishi, the angst is heightened considering the lack of a Mondeo/Mazda6/Honda Accord rival. Imagine if a mid-size diesel Mitsubishi were to lob, direct from Japan with direct diesel injection? That could be one way to revive the company's flagging market share, currently as low as 6.1 per cent and two market share points below the same time five years ago when a very similar number of cars were sold.

This underlines the challenge facing Clovelly Park. How to build market share as an importer. Nissan was hit hard in the early 1990s after closing its local manufacturing, but Mitsubishi should not sustain too great a decline since 380 comprised such a small percentage of overall sales.

Mitsubishi's first move has been to announce a fully-equipped premium model Lancer in the hope that this is able to lure some former 380 considerers to the dealership, though interestingly among all its passenger/SUV stars, the Outlander has the greatest share of its segment, perhaps underlining the market's move away from six-cylinder sedans and into SUVs.

In Europe, Outlander is heavily promoted with diesel power, with five out of six engine options in one major market being diesel.

Now is the time for Mitsubishi to untie the hand that's been firmly behind its back and to strike out in a new and dynamic direction. A diesel direction.

A diesel Outlander would make sense because the Compact and Medium SUV segments are each now more than eight per cent of the total market respectively. The Medium SUV market has grown 25 per cent so far this year and all SUV sales comprise 23 per cent of the total market. Large car sales, are now worth just 10 per cent of the total market (down from 14 per cent this time last year).

Overall, our market's new car sales growth is impressive given the 12 successive interest rate rises that have been lobbed at consumers. Yet still the market grows. Last year's record sales of just over a million are on target to be eclipsed by a rampant 2008. If the current 7.2 per cent growth continues we'll be a market of close to 1.1 million new vehicles this year. January and February were both outright records for their respective months, which again makes the performance of the Falcon, and to a slightly greater extent, the Commodore all the more worrying.

Falcon's excuse is clearly that a new generation model is coming and even blind Freddy knows this. But for Holden the excuse that the Commodore sales figures are down because the wagon has dropped out of production doesn't stand up. This is a new car, barely 18 months old that is so superior in all areas that it was worthy of winning the WHEELS car of the year award in 2006. It should be firing on all six cylinders. But it is not and one of the reasons is again an SUV, fortunately this one is called Captiva, with close to 1000 registrations in February. It would indeed be interesting to know how many of these were diesel powered given that Holden in March is offering "free upgrades to Diesel engines across the Captiva AWD range". Captiva prices start at $35,990, while a special edition Commodore Lumina is at $34,990 drive away, complete with 18-inch alloys.

And if the Falcon and Commodore didn't have enough competition from their own family (08-plated RWD Territory advertised from $34,990 drive away), Mazda is not making life any more enjoyable with its $39,910 CX-7 and $49,990 CX-9. This pair of good-lookers complete with turbo four or V6 engines respectively accounted for close to 1000 further former family sedan buyers in February. True they don't offer a diesel version yet. But who would you put money on to have a diesel first? Mazda or Ford? At least Mitsubishi is ahead of this wave, with its long-standing diesel Pajeros!

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