Rear-drive Holdens could live on

The prospect of a rear-wheel drive Holden still being sold in Australia beyond the end of local manufacturing in 2017 is back in the news.

US automotive magazine Car & Driver has claimed the Holden Caprice-based PPV police car and Holden Commodore-based Chevrolet SS, both of which are currently built at GM’s doomed Adelaide plant, will be manufactured in North America by 2015.

The article also says it’s possible they will be based on the Zeta II version of the Commodore’s architecture, which is a bit confusing because depending on who you listen to that’s the basis of the current Camaro, or the VF Commodore. Or it actually doesn’t exist… and won’t.

There is also reference to the Commodore Ute resurfacing in US production and a rear-wheel drive Cruze-sized hatch and Sportwagon – which would inevitably be dubbed Torana in Australia -- being considered.

Needless to say the C&D article is highly speculative, as is just about everything every media outlet is writing about what occurs beyond the closure of Elizabeth and the end of the Commodore in 2017.

What we do know is that when local manufacture does end, the replacement for the current Australian-developed Commodore – potentially imported from China will be based on a global front and all-wheel drive platform.

This platform will most likely be called E2XX and it will accommodate only four-cylinder and potentially V6 engines, which means rear-wheel drive and V8 engines cease to be.

Apart from anything else, it certainly makes the task of Holden Special Vehicles harder, and puts a next-generation Holden Ute out of the question.

If it was a Holden-only domestic problem then that would probably be that. But with Holden exporting the SS and PPV, there is now plenty of speculation – such as the C&D yarn – that an affordable rear-wheel drive vehicle will continue to be part of the General Motors line-up to potentially serve the Chevrolet, Buick and Holden brands into the next decade.

A Holden V8 sedan version would drop the Commodore name and simply become called the SS, like the Chevrolet version.

The various options for this rear-wheel drive architecture we are aware of are:

Zeta/Zeta II – currently under Commodore, Caprice and Camaro but supposedly due for the chop in 2017. There has been talk of a Zeta ‘legacy’ architecture continuing on post the end of Elizabeth to ensure the future of PPV and SS.

Alpha – this is a Cadillac architecture that underpins the new ATS and CTS. A ‘cheaper’ version is due to underpin the next Camaro, arriving in 2016, and that could also spawn a four-door to form a solution beyond Zeta.

Omega -- This is a full-sized platform intended to underpin a new S-Class fighting Cadillac sedan due around 2016. It is said to draw component sets from both Zeta and Alpha. Feasibly, a cheaper version could be the basis of a PPV replacement.

There are multiple arguments for and against continuing with affordable rear-wheel drive. Sales volume is low and fuel consumption challenges are only getting to get more difficult.

But the image gains RWD and V8 deliver with the enthusiast market are notable, which is why the Chev SS came into being as a NASCAR.

Which way GM jumps -- and none of the scenarios may be even close – and how it affects Holden is yet to be made clear. We’ll keep you posted.

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