Sales of internal combustion cars have peaked, say experts

Traditional internal combustion petrol and diesel engines may have reached their peak market saturation, according to a special report from the UK’s Financial Times.

Quoting numerous industry experts and specialists, the report suggests the increasing adoption of electrification in new cars – be it in hybrid or pure electric forms – will soon offset demand for traditional engine technologies.

So much so, some experts say 2018 was likely a peak in internal combustion engine (ICE) sales.

"We will probably see the peak of combustion engine car sales in 2018 based on global sales through October, plus estimates for November and December," Felipe Munoz, global automotive analyst for Jato Dynamics, told the Times.

Twelve months ago, it was predicted internal combustion vehicle demand wouldn’t reach peak market saturation until 2022. However, a slowdown in the world’s largest car markets – the US, China and Europe – has tempered those expectations.

The slowdown in sales has been attributed to the US-China trade war, greater emissions restrictions in Europe and the UK Brexit development.

"At the beginning of the year we had a more optimistic perspective for the global market,” Munoz said.

Industry analyst Axel Schmidt added: “Selling combustion engine cars to customers – this will not grow in the future.”

Conversely, global electric vehicle market share is set to quadruple in 2019 – albeit from a low base – to 1.6 per cent.

Looking at the current Australian market, it is difficult to comprehend a rapid fall in internal combustion sales – yet.

Electric and hybrid vehicles made up 1.35 per cent of new car sales in 2018, up from 1.03 per cent the previous year.

Paralleling our fascination with big utes and SUVs, petrol and diesel technology still clearly dominate the new car landscape.

Research from the National Transport Commission shows Australia’s last-recorded fleet average (recorded across all passenger and light commercial vehicles) was 181 grams/kilometre CO2; that compares with 118.5g/km CO2 in Europe.

The news comes as Australia posted a slightly decline in new cars sales in 2018, dipping off by about 3 per cent from record sales in 2017.