Sales sweep for 2017

It's only January, but there's already a swag of new models headed our way. Some will be significant, some less so.

Car importers and manufacturers are frequently reluctant to forecast how their latest model will do in the market. Overreach for a sales goal and the consumers (and journalists) will be unforgiving.

Braver auto industry execs will qualify any forecast with the disclaimer that the numbers provided are 'stretch targets'.

The motoring.com.au team has resolved for the new year to put our heads together and forecast projected sales for some significant models arriving this year. See what you think...

Alfa Romeo Giulia
Arriving in February, Alfa's rear-wheel drive sedan is aimed directly at BMW's 3 Series, and will bring its own M3 rival, the QV. Fiat Chrysler Australia has revealed that its dealer network has pre-sold the entire first-year allocation of Giulia QV.

The motoring crystal ball prediction: "After initial demand has been met, the QV's split will probably settle down. There's undeniable enthusiasm for the QV, but buyers can be wary of the Alfa Romeo brand. Still, the importer should be able to sell at least 1500 units of Giulia in 2017."

Audi Q2
Like the Giulia, Audi's Q2 is due here next month. At entry level the small SUV will be front-wheel drive only, with a petrol engine, but there will be a diesel all-wheel drive as well.

The motoring crystal ball prediction: "SUVs are increasingly popular in Australia, and the Q2 is likely to be a roomier package than the A1 hatch. If the Q2 out-sells A1 by at least 500 units, that would translate to about 2500 for 2017. The danger for Audi is the appealing Q2 might cut into sales of the Q3."

Holden Equinox
The replacement for the five-seat Captiva, the Equinox features downsized and turbocharged petrol and diesel engines, and is set to arrive here in the last quarter, promising to be a better package than Captiva. But price will be the deciding factor for Equinox.

The motoring crystal ball prediction: "Equinox looks like a major improvement over the Captiva, but Holden has proved it can sell Captivas on the basis of pricing anyway. It's difficult to say how many units Holden will offload in 2017, but let's say 3000 cars at least for the initial demand, followed by about 1000 a month thereafter."

Hyundai Genesis G70
Another one due in the latter half of 2017 is Hyundai's new mid-size Genesis, the G70. Like the Alfa Giulia, the G70 is expected to sell against the BMW 3 Series and expands the Genesis brand's reach downmarket.

The motoring crystal ball prediction: "This is one of the dark horses for 2017. Hyundai may find the going hard if Kia brings its Stinger GT to market ahead of the G70. In 2016 Hyundai sold fewer than 400 units of the Genesis [G80]. Depending on price and launch timing, the G70 should sell 1000 up front, with maybe 100 to 150 a month afterward."

Kia Stinger GT
Arriving here around the same time as the Genesis G70, the Stinger GT is already getting good press, deserving of a car that will keep alive the hopes of fans after Holden closes down local Commodore production.

The motoring crystal ball prediction: "It will be no surprise if this is a huge hit for Kia. Trickle-feed promotion and marketing for this car could build up a massive order bank ahead of the Stinger's launch. If it launches before the fourth quarter, Kia could sell 2000 to 3000 in 2017, provided supply can keep up."

Land Rover Discovery 5
The long-awaited replacement for the Discovery 4 will launch here in June. Competitive pricing for Australia has already been announced and the new monocoque model features some Range Rover DNA.

The motoring crystal ball prediction: "Sales of the current model have been solid and Land Rover will carefully manage both the run-out and the new model launch. Sales of up to 3000 units for the new model shouldn't be too much of a stretch in the latter half of 2017."

Maserati Levante
The importer has previously gone on the record saying it expects the Maserati Levante to account for around 40 per cent of local sales in 2017. To date 200 cars have been ordered and the on-sale date is set for April.

The motoring crystal ball prediction: "The importer is constrained to an allocation of just 600 cars for Australia and New Zealand, and 200 of those have been pre-sold. How could they not sell all 600 in 2017, despite the Levante's premium price tag."

Renault Alaskan
Another side project for Nissan's Navara R&D team, the Australian-spec Alaskan is anticipated to be sourced from Thailand. When it arrives here in the latter half of 2017, it will enter a hotly contested market segment, which boasted the country's most popular vehicle (Toyota HiLux) and the fourth-best selling vehicle (Ford Ranger).

The motoring crystal ball prediction: "Nissan sold nearly 17,000 Navaras last year, and Renault is no slouch in the light commercial vehicle class, with its range of vans, but coming half-way through the year the Alaskan has a hard slog ahead of it. Perhaps it will sell 1500 to 2000 units before year's end."

Skoda Kodiaq
The introduction of the Kodiaq late in 2017 is very likely to help Skoda Australia break the 5000-sale barrier for the first time. It's a good package, and the fan base for the Czech brand is growing all the time.

The motoring crystal ball prediction: "We love SUVs and the Kodiaq could be the sales champ in Skoda's local range. Considering the pent-up demand, offset by half a selling year only, the Kodiaq should reach around 1500 sales before the end of 2017."

Suzuki Ignis
Like the last model to wear the Ignis badge in Australia, the new Ignis is square-rigged and chunky, but also aimed dead centre of the target demographic for young, urban millenials. Suzuki has a reputation in Australia for selling smaller, niche models in the market, and the Ignis is very close in size to stablemates like Baleno, Swift and Celerio.

The motoring crystal ball prediction: "The Ignis is unlikely to sell in the same numbers as Vitara or Swift. It might be just a wee bit small for the likes of small SUV buyers. Suzuki is forecasting 400 units a month, which would translate to about 4500 sales for the year. We're not as confident… maybe 2500 to 3000 for 2017?"