Short circuit for EVs: PwC
Analyst report predicts hard slog ahead for electric carsRead the hype throughout the year surrounding the Tesla Roadster, you could be forgiven for concluding that the all-electric vehicle's moment is nigh. All the more so now that big-name marques are hopping aboard.
At the 2008 LA Auto Show in November, Nissan Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn spruiked the electric car as a near-future mainstream reality. He was also, of course, touting his company's pitch for leadership in a market sector he predicted would put up to seven million units on world roads by 2020.
Not so, says PricewaterhouseCoopers in a report just released. PwC concludes it will be eight to 10 years before all-electric vehicles reach the point hybrid vehicles are at now. And only then with plenty of taxpayer help in the way of incentives and subsidies. The current fortunes of Californian all-electric specialist Tesla would suggest they're right .
PwC puts the figure closer to 500,000 units in 2015, extending to a million by 2017 and 1.5 million by 2020. And these numbers represent what it might be possible for manufacturers to build. What they might sell, they say, is another matter altogether.
Even though grid electricity is cheaper than fossil fuels, the lithium-ion batteries standing between the power point and the road are still a major price block, the report says. It points out that the electric car is caught up in the vicious circle that traps so many new technologies: consumers won't buy it because it costs too much, depriving manufacturers of the economies of scale they need to drive the price down.
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