Shroud remains over Holden's future range

A third of Holden's product range will comprise Opel-designed and/or Opel-built products in future. That's an absolute given, says Holden's executive director of sales, Peter Keley.

But what will those models be, precisely?

Holden finds itself caught in a trap not of its own making and it can't reveal too much about its product planning strategy. Nor can it afford to withdraw all information about its future product portfolio.

Like Ford, the GM brand has had to announce the end of local manufacturing here, but has followed up with further announcements that the brand will remain operating in Australia as a full-line importer.

This is aimed at calming consumers worried that GM was packing up and leaving the country altogether. As a consequence the company has made known details of its future product planning strategy it probably would not have revealed in other circumstances.

Of the 24 new models scheduled to be launched by 2020, three have already arrived – Astra VXR/GTC, Cascada and now Insignia VXR. Holden is planning a final, Series II update for the VF Commodore around October, and the new Spark, which Holden claims to be a mega improvement on the current model, is officially due in January.

There's also a new Captiva in the works, we're told, but little of anything concerning the Opel products that are bound to account for the lion's share of these new models.

At least one of those 24 new models will be a small car. The current Cruze manufactured in Elizabeth (the wagon is imported) will end production at some point before the end of 2017.

Keley told motoring.com.au during the launch of the Insignia VXR this week that an official 'End of Production' date for the Cruze and Commodore at Elizabeth is yet to be officially named.

"We haven't announced an 'EOP' date..." he said. "We're still evaluating when those dates are."

Holden has said that production at the Elizabeth plant will cease in 2017, but the company hasn't specified whether that will be at the end of the year, at the beginning, or some point in between. Nor has it said whether Cruze will go the full distance.

It's possible that Holden could end Cruze production well before the final Commodore rolls down the line. Based on per-unit profit and sales volumes for 2015 so far, Commodore production might well continue long past Cruze's.

Holden's plans for the Cruze are far from clear. The new-generation sedan imported after local Cruze production has concluded may be complemented by Opel's Astra hatch, to ensure Holden has both sedan and hatchback offerings in the local small-car market.

Asked about this prospect, Keley flatly declared that introduction of the mainstream Astra range – as opposed to the hot-hatch variants already on sale here – hasn't been confirmed. Asked hypothetically whether Holden would entertain having the imported Astra hatch selling in Holden showrooms alongside (imported) Cruze sedan, the Holden exec replied accordingly.

"The thing that we always want to make sure that we do, in whatever the line-up is, is to actually be able to have confidence in the vehicles and position them in such a way as you minimise internal cannibalisation, but maximise external cannibalisation," he said.

"So if we had two cars in the Holden showroom meeting head-on-head with one another that would be less than ideal. You could have two products in a Holden showroom with maybe some overlap, but can be positioned differently, appealing to a slightly different buyer – that's not a bad thing."

But positive as that sounds – if you like Astras – it still means Holden is no closer to revealing whether the Euro hatch will make it here.

"There's certainly opportunities, but does that mean we're actually doing it? No, it doesn't mean that, but there's certainly opportunities," Keley said.

A lesser opportunity is presented by the Opel Zafira, a people-mover that was literally days away from launch when Opel's management in Germany pulled the rug out from under the local distribution team in 2013.

Holden is known to have been evaluating the Zafira for its own range and had previously cleared the 1000 units of Opel Zafiras that had been unsold (and unlaunched). While Keley is open to discussing the Zafira, it was plain from the tone of his reply that any prospect of the Zafira returning to Australia, but badged as a Holden this time, has receded.

"The great thing about being the brand Holden comes back to the fact that we are able to leverage the whole GM portfolio. The car market is more diverse than it's ever been, but having said that, there is still a limit to how many small-volume vehicles that you can bring in at any one time, because the challenges become around the marketing of those products, creating awareness around those products, stocking, ordering, and thereby delivering a customer experience.

"If they see a car they want to buy it. If you've got too many small-volume, niche cars, it becomes a challenge in itself. We're able to sit back, and watch the way the market develops."

Keley was sounded out about the sports coupe GM plans to bring into the country, as well as the replacement for the VF Series II Commodore.

Left unaddressed were the other 'chancers'. There's nothing to stop Holden drawing from other Opel products for the local market, including light commercial vehicles. We may see the Movano and Vivaro vans here, for instance – wearing Holden badges – or a return of the Corsa-based Combo for that matter.

Far less likely are the oddities in the Opel range, such as the Ampera plug-in or the Meriva mini people-mover. One final possibility is the Opel Corsa OPC, which made its debut at Geneva back in February. If this tiny little hot hatch were to be introduced to the Holden range, it would give the Aussie GM brand a genuine rival to Ford's Fiesta ST, which performed so well in motoring.com.au's Australia's Best Driver's Car recently.