Still a million

Throughout this year, industry pundits have guesstimated the total vehicle sales for the Australian market in 2007 would fall over the line somewhere around 1.03 million units. That's looking like a fairly safe stab at this stage.

As at the end of November, the market for the year to date ('YTD') had reached 963,732 units and the total number of vehicles sold during the month was 92,081. Even assuming that December will be a quieter month for sales, there should remain enough sales impetus to carry the market over the one million unit threshold with at least an extra 30,000 to 40,000 units in hand.

The November result represented an improvement of 8,784 units or 10.5 per cent over the November 2006 tally -- the year on year result ('YOY').

The federal election made no appreciable difference to sales generally, although sales of the Toyota Camry slipped for the month. As against that, the V6 Aurion picked up almost as many sales YOY as the Camry lost, so there seems to be little or no message there whatsoever, unless the message is that if you have to own a large Toyota that uses V6 levels of fuel, you might as well own one that also delivers V6 levels of power.

Large cars, as a segment, were down nearly 1200 units -- below $70,000 -- and 26 units down for vehicles priced above $70,000. Commodore remained the top seller in the segment, with sales of 4573 for the month and market share of 41.4 per cent, but in an expanding market this is a mild decline, YOY. The Commodore's figures for November last year were 5238 units sold, 42.9 per cent share. Market share for the month was also lower than the average market share, YTD.

Falcon has also lost market share and sales for the month, YOY -- 2798 units sold constituted nearly 650 units less than November 2006. At least, unlike the Commodore, the Falcon's market share is slightly improved for this month, against the YTD figure, but we believe that's because the whole segment is losing sales and as Commodore had more sales to lose in the first place, it's something of an illusion of success that Falcon is picking up market share.

Of the top three in the segment, the Aurion was the only bright spot, with improved fortunes in both unit sales and market share, compared YOY. Sales for the month were 1797 units, versus 1543 for November '06.

Over $70,000, the top three large cars comprised a draw for first place (BMW 5 Series and Mercedes E-Class, both on 177 units sold) and the Audi A6 on 110 units.

In light cars, the top seller was the Hyundai Getz (2473 units sold), putting in a stellar performance to steal the prime position from the Toyota Yaris (2405 units) and the Mazda2 (a long way back on 1266),

Yaris did lose sales and market share, YOY, but the big difference this time around was that the Getz picked up nearly a thousand extra units and massive market share for just the one month. Whether this is sustainable into the future remains debatable.

We feel that the Getz sales were inflated by one or more large fleet purchases during the month. Getz enjoyed a similar upturn back in June, so it's almost as if a large fleet purchase is scheduled twice a year and this makes all the difference in each month.

Mazda2 is leading a pack of light cars vying for third place in the segment. Within 300 units' striking distance of the Mazda are the Kia Rio, Suzuki Swift and Holden Barina -- in that order. The Mazda's performance is in stark contrast to the sale of the previous model. Doubling sales or better over the past couple of months that the new car has been on sale, it has skewed the YTD market share from 5.1 per cent for 2006 to 7.1 per cent for 2007 -- and the new model has only been on sale for this, the final quarter of the year.

Above $25,000, the top three light cars were the Peugeot 207 (174), the Citroen C3 (74) and the Fiat Punto (67).

Toyota's Corolla headed the small car segment, as you would expect. Sales for the month numbered 4109 units, which was a YOY improvement on sales for November last year, but market share was slightly down (22.2 versus 22.6 per cent YOY).

What this tells us is that Corolla has secured a larger chunk of an even larger market segment, YOY. Only four cars, two of which were both new models (the Mitsubishi Lancer and the Subaru Impreza), could point to improved YOY market share among the volume sellers in the small car segment. The other two were the Honda Civic and the Nissan Tiida.

Second in the small car segment was the Mazda3 (2564 units), but a long way shy of its November '06 performance of 2922 units. The Mazda is probably more reliant on private buyers than the Corolla is and given the timing (the same month as the federal election), might private buyers have held off buying the Mazda to a greater extent than other cars, assessing the mood of the nation and the colour of government post the election?

Of course, we wouldn't mind betting that the new and improved Mitsubishi Lancer is also biting hard where the Mazda is concerned.

Lancer came third with 2052 units, a not too surprising improvement of 550 units, YOY. Lancer is doing very well -- with just the one body style -- and sales can and should improve further in the new year, if Mitsubishi improve supply and bring out a five-door version.

In among the rest of the small car segment, Fiat sold two units of Ritmo. This car has not been officially released yet, so there's a bit of news.

Over $40,000 the top three small cars were Mercedes B-Class (274), MINI Cooper (169) and Audi A3 (153).

Top selling car in the medium segment was the Toyota Camry (2088). As already mentioned, Camry sales slipped by nearly 500 units, YOY. It was still over a thousand units ahead of second-placed Mazda6 (1081), but the Mazda had picked up an extra hundred units, YOY -- and market share to go with it. It must be said too, that the Mazda's performance came in spite of reports that a new model is on the way.

Well behind the Mazda, but still performing strongly is the Honda Accord Euro (678 sales for the month), improving both sales and market share, YOY.

Market share for the entire medium segment is marginally down, compared with both the YOY figure from November '06 and the YTD figure for 2007. That suggests a gentle decline in medium segment sales over the course of the year. It would be tempting to suggest that fuel prices are hitting the medium car segment -- only not as drastically as for large cars -- but it's more likely a case of small cars having grown in size to the point where they are de facto medium cars anyway -- and presenting a more economical option to de jure medium cars.

We don't normally cover the back-markers, but Holden's Epica sold 290 units for the month -- which sounds pretty ordinary until you learn that Ford's much vaunted new Mondeo sold just 159 for the month.

During October, the Mondeo had sold 277 cars, many of which we presume would have gone to Ford execs and company fleets. A figure of 159 units sold is what one might call a very inauspicious start, but TV advertising for the Mondeo has only commenced within the past few weeks. Perhaps with a bit of push, the Mondeo will sell better.

If there's one thing strongly suggested by the Mondeo -- a highly regarded car with five-star NCAP credentials, attractive packaging and class-leading engineering -- it's that medium car sales success is a long, arduous climb in the Australian market. The cars that sell best are the ones that have been a known name for years and are vigorously promoted and marketed with fleet deals, discounts and intangible 'quality' and 'engineering' properties.

Of course, another way of looking at the Mondeo conundrum is that Ford hasn't had a medium segment entry to sell people for something like seven years -- so part of the problem selling the Mondeo might be just as much an issue of letting people know that you now have a car to sell in that segment.

The three top selling medium cars priced above $60,000 in November 2007 were the BMW 3 Series (498 units), Mercedes C-Class (486) and Lexus IS250 (324).

Holden's Caprice remained the upper large segment leader with 223 units sold for the month. That was slightly less than November '06, but market share has improved because the entire segment now accounts for fewer sales overall. Holden also took second spot in the segment, with the Statesman (137 units), but both unit sales and market share for the Statesman were significantly down, YOY.

Third spot went to Chrysler with the 300C on 127 units for the month. That's 35 less than this time last year, with a corresponding loss of market share.

Above $100,000 the three top selling upper large cars were Lexus LS (41), Mercedes S-Class (40) and BMW 7 Series (12). The launch of the LS600hL probably contributed principally to the transformed fortunes of Lexus in this segment. There'll be something of a sales hangover next month when all the luxo-hybrids have been delivered.

Among people movers, Kia's Carnival hit the heights with 375 units sold, well ahead of the Toyota Tarago (251) and the Honda Odyssey (187). All three vehicles recorded reduced sales and market share, YOY.

For people movers priced above $55,000, Chrysler Voyager (33 units), led the Volkswagen Multivan (30) and the Mercedes Vito (11). In YOY terms, all the premium people movers have seen a drastic downturn in sales.

Volkswagen Eos remains the most popular sports car, with 205 units sold last month. It outsold -- fanfare please -- the Mitsubishi Colt Cabriolet on 142 units. The Colt was 11 units for the month ahead of the Holden Astra Twin-Top (131) and its market share was so far ahead, compared YOY and with the YTD figure, it's beyond belief.

Market share for the Colt was 14.7 per cent in November, 2.7 per cent in November 2006 and 4.3 per cent average for YTD. That YTD figure is even more screwy when you consider that the 396 units sold YTD include the 142 sold in November.

Sounds to us like an FM radio station bought up big on the Colt Cabriolet during November.

For sports cars above $80,000, BMW 3 Series (308) was well ahead of the Mercedes CLK (127) and the Audi TT (66).

The venerable Porsche 911 led sports cars priced beyond $200,000 with sales of 51 units for the month. Splitting the blanket was the Mercedes CL on 18 units, followed by BMW 6 Series and the Jaguar XK8, tied for third place with 14 units each.

Compact SUVs are enjoying improved sales this year -- over 700 units up on November '06. Leading the charge was the Toyota RAV4 with 1245 units sold, ahead of Subaru Forester on 1129 and Nissan X-Trail on 1120 for the month. This time last year, the Forester was leading the segment, but has dropped back 133 units while the RAV's market share has held steady in a growing segment.

In the medium SUV segment, Ford's Territory has reacquired top spot -- and the crown for top selling SUV of any kind -- with sales of 1595 units for the month. The Territory has maintained YTD market share into the month (23.7 per cent for November, 23.6 per cent YTD) and has pulled up more sales YOY (1339 for November '06), so despite the threat posed by the Toyota Kluger (second in the segment for the month with 1206 unit sales), the Territory's sales remain firm. That may change next year once Toyota can shore up more supply for the Kluger. Or, it may not...Territory buyers appear both resilient and loyal to the car.

Third place for the month went to the Holden Captiva with 936 units (just seven ahead of the Toyota Prado).

The top three sellers effectively accounted for the bulk of the extra 1400 units in the segment, YOY. Kluger, with the FWD variants and a totally new design contributed 756 of those. The Captiva, with the diesel option added 382 units and even the Territory -- with nothing more than slightly discounted pricing and some additional standard features -- incurred an extra 156 unit sales, YOY.

Returning to back-markers, Hummer, the company that recently announced it has pre-sold its entire 2007 Australian allocation, sold 19 units in November. On that basis, unless we're very much mistaken, Hummer will have virtually no inventory at all to sell in December.

Can Hummer sustain this sales momentum in 2008? The H3 is a commendable vehicle and it has a USP in being quasi-military, but we suspect that the pent-up demand will be largely satisfied by the end of February next year. If Hummer can exceed 2000 sales of the H3 for calendar year 2008, that will be a real mark of success.

Another new model and another massive leap in sales. That's the situation with the LandCruiser in the large SUV segment. Toyota went from the old 100 Series model in October to the 200 Series and run-out of the 100 Series in November. The change was staggering, for vehicles that are priced from just under $70,000. 275 units of 100 Series were sold during October. 1170 units of the new 200 Series and LC100 combined, sold during November. Market share is looking healthy again for the Toyota, with a massive 71.6 per cent share of the segment for November.

Nissan's Patrol took second place with 424 units, which is holding fairly steady for unit sales, but is a major slump in market share -- entirely attributable to the new Toyota.

Third place (and last) went to the Jeep Commander, which sold 40 units for the month. Market share for the month is 2.4 per cent -- in a segment comprising just three vehicles! The Commander is a decent vehicle, but in this company, it's a walk-on cameo.

In the luxury SUV segment, BMW X5 (380 units), remained ahead of Mercedes M-Class (304) and Lexus RX (205). The BMW has made a substantial gain in market share for the month, compared with the average YTD figure and YOY. Similar comments apply to the Mercedes, but the Lexus has stagnated (unit sales for November '06 were also 205) and market share has dropped.

On the commercial side of the fence, Toyota's HiAce snared almost half the van market (49.9 per cent) with November '07 sales of 954. Mitsubishi's Express adopted the customary position, on 278 units sold for the month and the Volkswagen Transporter was 90 units behind that, on 188. All three are enjoying significantly improved market share, YOY. That's almost certainly because the YOY figures for the Ford Transit went from 260 units in November 2006 to just 91 last month. Nearly 170 units less, combined with the general sales slump of the smaller players in the segment (Berlingo, Kangoo, Trafic, APV and Caddy), changes the complexion of the segment enough that more sales in an otherwise expanding segment mean geometrically greater market share percentages for the winners.

In 4x2 pick-ups and cab chassis light trucks, Toyota HiLux sold 1767 units, ahead of unit sales YOY, but a marked decline in market share. You only have to look as far as the second-placed 4x2 pick-up to see why. That car is the Holden Ute, finally showing some serious signs of market penetration since the introduction of the VE model. Just a little over 200 units behind the HiLux (1538 units of the Holden sold in November), the Holden is also nearly 500 units clear of the November '06 figure. Perhaps Holden's strategy to focus more on recreational buyers and the eye-catching TV advertising campaign are beginning to bear fruit.

Although...not very far behind the new Holden is the Falcon Ute (1326 units). The Falcon continues to be a respectably strong seller in this segment, especially considering its age. Both market share and unit sales are down, YOY and relative to YTD figures, but unit sales are actually not very far behind the November '06 figure of 1391 units.

For the 4x4 pick-ups, the HiLux held sway there too. Unit sales of 1920 for the Toyota were ahead of the November '06 figure (1865), but market share has fallen from 32.3 per cent YOY to 27.4 per cent last month. The segment has grown, but the Toyota's market share has slumped, due to its stagnant sales growth.

The same could be said of the Nissan Navara 4x4, which accrued sales of 1283 last month, slightly ahead of the 1240 sold in November '06, but at the expense of market share -- down from 21.5 per cent to 18.3 per cent, YOY.

Third place went to the Mitsubishi Triton 4x4, with sales of 956 last month. That compares very favourably with 692 sold in November '06 and market share has risen from 12.0 per cent to 13.6 per cent, YOY.

Even with stagnant sales, market share for the HiLux and Navara 4x4s wouldn't have slumped unless the market had gone through a major growth spurt since this time last year. It has done that as a result of improved sales at Ford and Mazda. The BT-50 and Ranger twins sold over 800 more units combined than the B-Series and Courier sold in November '06.