Surge in HSV car prices explained

Chris Boribon is the public face of Shannons, the company well known for matching up classic car buyers with classic cars.

As the national auctions and external relations manager for the auction house, Boribon always has his ear to the ground, listening for any movement in the market value of used cars that are either highly desirable or showing every sign of being future collectibles.

But despite having his finger on the pulse, the sudden surge in pricing for Australian-built HSV models – led by a HSV GTSR Maloo W1 attracting bids of more than $1 million in an online auction currently in progress – has him perplexed.

“I think that HSV Maloo price has surprised everyone. Whether it actually is real or whether there’s a bit of bulls**t behind it is the part we don’t know yet,” Boribon told carsales.

“But from my point of view, why would you pay a million dollars for a HSV? I’m still scratching my head ... when you can buy some unbelievable exotics or a couple of beautiful exotics for that sort of money.

“Is this the stupid COVID tax that we’re seeing at the moment?

“I appreciate it’s one of four built, and it’s a rare thing, but I still can’t get my head around a million-dollar price tag for it ... or over a million now.”

When put to him that this sudden interest in HSVs may be merely a case of hyperactive sentiment following the death of the Holden brand, Boribon admitted to being uncertain.

“If that was the whole case – of the demise of Holden – we would have seen those cars appreciate two years ago. The question is: why is it happening now?”

There may be other issues in play, Boribon suggests, and COVID-19 could be one of them. The viral pandemic has had an unexpected impact on the used car market, with companies like Shannons reaping the benefits, despite operating in an online capacity only.

“We’ve seen a really buoyant market overall, over COVID [the pandemic and associated lockdowns],” Boribon said.

“Our clearance rates have been 95 to 97 per cent, every auction, over COVID. I think the market is on a real high. When you talk to a lot of dealers, some of the dealers have had the best months they’ve ever had in recent times.

“Is it a combination of people not travelling? And people are going to be spending more time in Australia over the next two or three years? Has that spurred on more buyers in the marketplace? I think there’s probably connectivity there.”

Another reason for the sudden surge in HSV pricing might be a whole lot of disaffected ex-Holden dealer principals offloading the cars they bought as an investment during 2017. 

None of that can explain the remarkable interest in buying HSVs, however, says the Shannons exec.

“Why are the buyers going over the top and paying what they’re paying?

“We’ve seen all HSVs appreciate in the past 12 months, and it comes down to cars with the right history, ownership, books and obviously low kays. Super-low-k cars have done really well, but are we seeing what we saw with Phase III Falcons 10 years ago? We saw some stupid prices take place, and then there was a correction a year or two after that.

“From my point of view, looking around, I can see 200 grand in a W1, maybe 250, but I can’t see half a million dollars or more.”

Of the HSV models listed on carsales, the cars asking the big bucks – five-figure prices – are mainly those from 2017, the last year of production for the locally-built Commodore derivatives.

Boribon confirms that, but questions whether it’s a flash in the pan or a strong trend for the future.

“I’ve heard through the grapevine in the last week only that there are a few W1 sedans on the market for 400, 500 or 600,000 dollars. Is that seller just trying the market, saying: ‘I’m going to ride off the tail of what’s going on with the ute, and see if I can get a bite? If I can get a bite, fantastic, I’ve just tripled my money...’

“Or are they genuinely thinking that’s what the market is?”

If HSV price movements are an ongoing trend, it will likely have an inflationary effect on older, lesser models of HSV.

There are some HSV models to be had for under $20,000 – and they’re not Astra-based either – but the cheapest Commodore-based HSV with under 150,000km on the clock is only just below $30,000.

Boribon admits that he can’t foresee whether HSV prices will continue to accelerate. And, in essence, he warns against spending so much for a car that might take decades to show a return on investment.

On the other hand, if you’re buying something you like, you can’t really go wrong – because it’s not a decision based on monetary return.

“Buy something that you like,” he recommends. “Buy something that you look at in 10 or 20 years and go, ‘You know what? I don’t care if I paid over the top, because I actually really love this.’

“I guess the price won’t matter so much in 10 or 20 years’ time.”

What we see from the interest in HSVs in particular, as well as all sorts of V8 Holdens from a bygone era, is that buyers are looking for performance cars that were built in Australia.

Boribon notes that it’s not just a GM fixation. Old Falcons from the late ’70s are gaining in value, but they have to be more than just your bog-standard Falcon GL with three-on-the-tree.

“The ones that are picking up the money are XD and XE ESPs, the 351 cars. They’re the ones that have really picked up in price,” he said.

“I think that’s probably justifiable, given that they were built in fairly low numbers, the car was used at Bathurst as well, by Dick Johnson ... so I think that’s justifiable to an extent.”

Cars under 30 years of age could be solid investments.

“Potentially,” Boribon responds, before noting that the W1 is a performance model under 30 years of age, and he certainly doesn’t recommend speculators buy one of those at the current asking prices.

“That’s the top of the market; you’re not buying well,” he said.

“We’re saying that if we buy at five or 600 [$600,000] it’s going to be worth a million dollars. Is that what we’re saying?”

If you just want to buy ‘Aussie’, and don’t care whether it’s the red brand or blue, FPVs are significantly more affordable than HSVs.

“Maybe some of the low-volume FPVs are the ones to look at, at the moment,” Boribon suggests. “They’re actually still good buying.

“With the lower-cost options ... try and find maybe some of the ’90s – the earlier to mid-’90s – HSVs with low kays ... or the FPV stuff. [FPV] is what’s providing good buying at the moment.”

Such a model might be the FPV GT RSPEC, one of which is currently listed for sale at $85,500, with just 10,500km on the odometer. That’s not cheap, but nor is it as expensive as some of the recent HSVs listed for sale. The key point with that particular FPV is its low mileage.

Monaros are also a reasonably good investment, Boribon says, and they’re still within reach of cashed-up buyers, even “the final special CV8 ... the last of the CV8-Zs...”

Older performance Fords and Holdens are not likely to appreciate in value if they’ve racked up hundreds of thousands of kilometres, Boribon cautions.

These would be cars like early XR6 Falcons or SV6 Commodores. Even V8 models may be lower in price if the odometer reading is up around the same level as an Apollo moon mission.

“I think the problem is that most of them are actually really high mileage. I mean a lot of them ... have had several owners,” Boribon said.

“It’s finding that car that actually has not had ‘a life’, and is still super-low kays, and one owner or two owners, in immaculate condition. So my recommendation on any of that stuff – investment cars especially – is to look for the car that has travelled low kays and been wrapped up in cotton wool, as such.”

If you want a car that has depreciated from new and is likely to retain its value in coming years – but doesn’t have to be Aussie necessarily – Boribon also suggests low-kilometre Mercedes-AMG models and BMW M cars as alternatives to high-priced HSVs.

The first-generation Honda NSX is also worth buying at the right money.

Returning to a theme to which he subscribes, the Shannons exec admits to being a committed car fan, one who buys a rare or collectible car out of passion, rather than any sense it will be a nice little earner in years to come.

“I know there’s a lot of collectors that buy and put cars away; I’m not about that, I’m about driving my cars. For me, the joy of owning something is actually driving it,” he said.

“You might buy a brand new car with delivery kays and the thing just sits there – and gets transported from one location to another by tow truck. I personally don’t see the enjoyment of that; maybe some collectors do...”