The Golden Age of motoring is now

Ten years ago, my next-door neighbour, Frank, was a far thinner, simpler chap who had high hopes for the future. He had a TV, a set of encyclopaedias (sold to him over the phone) and received the daily newspaper. He was switched on.

If Frank had wanted or needed to buy a car he would have asked his mates (or Professor Otto) which car to buy, begged the bank manager for a loan, nipped into his local dealer representing one or more of the big four domestic manufacturers, and proudly wheeled home a locally-made six-cylinder sedan. Just like his dad and his granddad before him.

Ten years ago, in January 1998, not exactly the dark ages, 51,195 new vehicles were sold that month, coming off the back of a relatively bumper year in 1997 when 722,427 vehicles were sold new, well up on 1996's paltry 650,000.

In January 1998, 14,901 Australian-built vehicles were sold here (29 per cent of the total market). In January 2008, 10,805 new cars built in Australia were sold (13 per cent of the total market). You get the picture?

But wait, there's more. Whereas in January 1998 around 200 distinct models were offered by 35 brands (excluding medium and heavy trucks), in January 2008, the choice had shot up to 280 distinct models from 43 manufacturers. More than 50 of the distinct models in 2008 are SUVs.

And that's before you consider body variants, engine options, spec and trim, all of which have proliferated.

Result: Mitsubishi Motors Australia Ltd, which says it has been running profitably, has just pulled the pin on its local manufacturing operations -- the first of the Button Plan's residual big four to crumble.

And ironically, it is not just because they were producing a big six sedan, but because they had no alternative strings to their bow.

So they had no flexibility when the big car market hiccuped (no small car) and no alternative market (no large export market), and probably most crucially, no alternative fuel efficient engine to supplant the petrol V6 (four-cylinder or diesel).

It's not that the car wasn't well built, it just wasn't well liked. And consumer confidence in Mitsubishi's manufacturing future was low -- which was, as it turns out, probably justified.

Additionally, the change in the market in the past decade means it's harder than ever to sell a six-cylinder sedan, when there's so much choice. Diesel or SUV, or SUV diesel are legitimate choices for private and business buyers, where before a six-cylinder sedan was de rigeur.

Consider this: 2809 diesel-powered passenger cars were sold in January 2008. That's against 692 Mitsubishi 380s sold. Not all diesels were large cars -- in fact few were -- but even the decline in share and volume of the large car sector has gathered pace in the past 18 months. Around 4750 diesel SUVs were sold in January 2008, emphasising the shift from traditional three-box sedans for family use.

Volatile petrol pricing, demographics and proliferation of choice accompanied the demise of the first of the big four's big sixes.

There are more buyers in our market than ever before. The 10 consecutive interest rate rises appear to have had no effect in dampening demand at all ends of the market. So more likely the announcement of the end of the 380 has much to do with planning cycles at Mitsubishi. Around now, the 380 programme would be spooling up plans for the next model. Market conditions and recent 380 sales history have KO'd plans for the next model. And with no future, and a profitability question mark on the product line, the smart move was to kill it before it drained the local sales company of its profits from imports.

So, who will lament the 380, nee Magna? Not, it seems, the near 1000 workers in Adelaide who will lose their jobs.

There was sadness but no surprise on their faces when they heard the news. Again, evidence of a strong economy where they either think or know they can get another job soon, and the redundancy payout will keep them afloat nicely, either feeding their Super or spending on home renovations.

Or perhaps a new car. Might even be a few 380s going cheap. But back to the bloke next door.

Today, if Frank were looking for a new car, he wouldn't be 'switched on' without the internet to help him choose. If he visits a dealer he might get reminder text messages on his mobile, maybe even some video footage, to encourage him to pop in for the test drive appointment. The brand he selects might not even have been operating in Australia in 1998, or if it were, it might have been a more precarious purchase decision then than it is now.

Compare sales in January 1998 with 2008 to see how some brands have found a very handy foothold in the Australian market, and conversely, how some others have seen volumes slide.

Marque January 1998 January 2008
Alfa Romeo  Not present 122 
Aston Martin  2 13
Audi  223 1,025
BMW 664 1,380
Chrysler  228 200
Citroen  34 261
Daewoo  1,558 Not present
Daihatsu  576 Not present
Dodge  Not present 221
Ferrari  8 20
Fiat  Not present 78
Ford  7,805 7,676
Holden  8,684 10,253
Honda  1,974 5,969
Hummer  Not present 166
Hyundai  4,190 3,172 
Jaguar  39 50
Jeep  374 450
Kia  601 1,761
Land Rover  282 433
Lexus  125 500
Lotus  9 9
Mazda  2,282 7,103
Mercedes  766 1,617
MINI  Not present 188
Mitsubishi  5,379 5,084
Nissan  2,844 4,867
Peugeot  264 559
Porsche  92 183
Proton  254 156
Renault  Not present 194
Rolls-Royce  1 5
Saab  193 96 
Skoda  Not present 45
Smart  Not present 13
Ssangyong  60 110
Subaru  1,457 4,059
Suzuki  648 1,685
Toyota  8,627 17,852
Volkswagen  417 2,374
Volvo Car  323 376
Total ** 50,983 75,555
* Source VFACTS
** Total of brand sales. Does not include HGV brands with no passenger sales

The table gives an indication of how the market has changed. It is also good news for buyers because strong brands with consistent volume invest in non-product services and facilities. Newer, better dealerships should be staffed by brighter, more customer-oriented staff. The service department should be equipped with state-of-the-art diagnostics, which theoretically should be more idle than ever due to the higher levels of technology that render products more durable and more reliable.

The fact that the automobile clubs are investing so heavily (your money, note) in golf clubs and facilities indicates they aren't spending as much on operational services such as recovery and roadside assistance -- simply because cars can limp home, on reduced power, or run flat tyres.

This is truly the Golden Age of Motoring. Huge variety, affordable and reliable products and the best back-up we've ever had.

Look forward 10 years and the picture will be very different. Frank would blanch at the thought of $10 for a litre of petrol, if he could still get it. By then that may be the least of his worries. Road pricing, carbon tax, spy-in-the-sky speed limit enforcement and down at ground zero… the biggest question of all is can he even buy a car made in Australia, let alone an “Aussie V8”?

One thing is for sure: he won't be limited to choosing among those brands listed above. There will be a slew of brands he's never heard of today, and probably won't be able to pronounce, come January 2018.

As I told him the other day, there's a Holden dealer close by with one of the very last Monaros on the forecourt. It's a living legend and a sure-fire investment. He won't see its kind again.

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