The near future isn’t electric, it’s hybrid

New US research suggests that by the year 2030, the majority of new passenger vehicles sold in North America will be hybrids – either mild, full or plug-in.

According to automotive industry experts surveyed by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, spark-ignition vehicles will still represent the majority (55 per cent) of vehicles sold until 2025, when hybrids are expected to account for 31 per cent and all-electric vehicles (EVs) just six per cent.

That’s a much more pessimistic view than what the same survey found in 2006, when they predicted that alternative-powertrain vehicles (including diesels) would account for the same 55 per cent of the US market as soon as 2020, when the spark-ignition vehicle share was forecast to drop to 45 per cent.

By 2030, however, the experts now expect 65 per cent of US vehicles to be powered by alternatives to spark ignition, with hybrids accounting for the lion’s share (43 per cent), followed by spark-ignition (35%) and EV (just 13%). The remainder is made up of range-extenders (4%), advanced diesel (3%) and hydrogen fuel-cell (2%).

Back in 2006, the UMTRI survey also tipped lithium-ion to claim 31 per cent of the battery market by 2020, but now that figure has increased to a predicted 72 per cent.

Nevertheless, Volkswagen insists the ‘tipping point’ for EVs “is near” and across its 12-brand group (including Audi, Porsche and Bentley) plans to introduce almost 70 full-electric models globally by 2028, accounting for 22 million EVs.

Reinhard Fischer, a senior vice-president for the Volkswagen Group who heads strategy for VW brand in North America, told Automotive News that its $US50 billion global EV push will soon bring price parity between EVs and internal combustion vehicles due to the reduced per-unit costs achieved by large-scale EV production.

"We strongly believe that the tipping point is near, and that tipping point will be price equity,” he told AN.

"Once you overcome the fear of something new, the EV is the better choice for you. I don't think it's going to take a lot of convincing.

"There is a fundamental curiosity. Everybody sees the end state. When you put pencil to paper, owning a full-electric vehicle costs about half of what a gas car costs me to operate.”

However, Fischer conceded that large-scale public acceptance of EVs still faces barriers, apart from “a fear about driving electric cars through water”.

"Range anxiety has now been replaced by charging anxiety," he told Automotive News. "A hundred years ago, gasoline was sold at pharmacies. Today, we have 122,000 gas stations in the United States.

“It's transformed from a bottleneck to a commodity. Electric charging is going to be exactly the same."