The story behind the Falcon wagon story

Comment

The Ford Falcon wagon may be gone -- its demise in June 2010 announced late yesterday -- but it is too early to draw the conclusion that the Falcon sedan and ute may follow.

Given that Falcon sales are their lowest in the 50-year history of the nameplate and the ute could be replaced by a new, locally developed body-on-frame utility being designed for the entire Ford world, it is understandable that doubts have been raised and questions are being asked. However, the reality is that the Falcon wagon was supposed to come to an end when the Territory softroader was introduced in 2004. Why Ford did not emphasise this during yesterday's announcement is a mystery.

The boss of Ford Australia at the time of the Territory's introduction, Geoff Polites, made no secret of the fate of the wagon.

But unexpected demand from fleet customers such as Telstra prompted Ford to continue building the Falcon wagon. After all, the tooling was already paid for, so what was the harm in knocking out a few wagons at lunchtime?

The production numbers were modest but worthwhile. The wagon was eventually built at a rate of 200 a month, that's 10 a day -- out of 250 or so cars built at Broadmeadows daily.

So the Falcon wagon, introduced in 1998, will have ended up hanging around for 12 years -- six years past its intended used-by date.

What also was not said explicitly yesterday was that it did not make economic sense to re-engineer the Falcon wagon with side and curtain airbags (to bring it in line with contemporary safety standards), and to overhaul the engine to meet new emissions regulations that come into force on July 1 (hence the wagon's June end of production). It would have cost more to make these changes than the profit Ford would have received from each vehicle. Over and out.

As for what all this means for Falcon sedan and ute is another story.

If the imported European Mondeo wagon is a good enough substitute for the Falcon wagon, then a conclusion could be drawn that the Mondeo could also replace the Falcon sedan. Or, dare we say it, a Taurus could replace a Falcon sedan.

Except it's not that simple. For starters, the Mondeo wagon is much dearer than the Falcon wagon.

Forget recommended retail prices for a moment (which indicate there is a narrow price gap). No-one pays RRP any way. Not even retail customers these days. The Falcon wagon was being banged out at a knock-down rate to fleets who accounted for 99 per cent of sales. Ford could limbo under its own pricing bar because the cost of the Falcon wagon had been amortised over a decade. And when you build em, you dictate the price.

It's a different story when you import a car from another factory in the Ford world. Sure, they're one happy family, but several players get to clip the ticket along the way before the Mondeo (or any other imported vehicle for that matter) lands on our shores.

Ford won't be selling Mondeos for Falcon wagon prices, that's for sure.

And so back to what this means for the sedan.

The Mondeo sedan is a world class car. It has more features and better efficiency than a Falcon. It's even won awards locally. But guess what? Australians either don't care or haven't noticed. Mondeo sales are a fraction of the Falcon's. And the Falcon hasn't exactly been bolting out the door for the last couple of years; recording the lowest two years of sales in the 50-year history of the Falcon nameplate.

The majority of Falcons are bought by fleets, so the same rule that applied to wagon applies here. Ignore RRP for a moment, no-one's paying close to that.

As for Ford's top secret T6 body-on-frame ute (the replacement to the Ranger and its twin under the skin, the Mazda BT-50), yes it could replace the Falcon ute. Except we reckon we'll see a similar scenario for the local ute as to the one we've just seen with the wagon.

The ute's tooling has been paid for. Ford will probably keep building it as long as there is enough demand. We will have to wait and see.

With all of this in mind, it is understandable that the media and Ford fans are questioning the viability of local production at Broadmeadows.

Holden's not out of the woods yet either. It has lost or had major cuts in its two big export markets (the US and the Middle East) and is experiencing weak sales locally. But the heat seems to be off Holden for the time being because there seems to hope on its horizon either with the police export program or even the possibility of Commodore returning to the US as a Chevrolet.

Unfortunately Ford is not being forthcoming with its future model plans. Both the Falcon and the Taurus have another six years left before they need replacing. This is ample time for Ford to consider many options.

And who knows? The world may change in a way none of us were expecting in that time. Six years ago, no-one saw the GFC coming either.

My guess is there are people within Ford Australia desperately trying to save the Falcon and local production -- and there are people elsewhere in the Ford world who want to kill it.

But as long as the Federal Government is prepared to offer tax-payer funded assistance to local car makers, the Ford factory -- and the Falcon -- could be around for a long while yet.

Read the latest Carsales Network news and reviews on your mobile, iPhone or PDA at www.carsales.mobi