The unexpected reality of new-car sales in 2024

COMMENT

It might’ve been a record-breaking year for new-car sales in Australia in 2024, but while Aussies were snapping up new cars in droves, plenty more was happening in the background.

The next 12 months will be just as exciting, with a plethora of new brands and fresh models on the way, along with a (much less exciting) stricter fuel efficiency standard that’s set to put pressure on a lot of manufacturers, including some of the heavyweights.

But first, let’s check out the highlights of 2024.

Up a staggering 93.9 per cent year-on-year, close to 10,000 Aussies took delivery of a Suzuki Jimny last year, making it the Japanese brand’s best-selling model Down Under.

It took the title by a good margin, too. For reference, Suzuki sold 9697 Jimnys compared to 6126 Swifts, and less than half that many Aussies purchase a Vitara (2934 units).

No doubt the introduction of the stretched five-door Jimny XL in late 2023 helped get more bums in Jimny seats by broadening its appeal – and passenger space – but it’s really no surprise the pint-sized off-roader attracted so many Aussies.

Honestly, if I was in the market for a new car, I’d seriously consider a Jimny – you could roll it straight off the showroom floor and into the bush with no qualms.

Sure, it’s far from perfect and its sub-par crash safety credentials won’t win over many parents… but if I can convince my dad to let me get a 35-year-old car with no ABS, stability control or airbags for my first car, I reckon you’ve got a fair chance of getting your parents over the line.

After all, the Jimny has all three of those modern safety features!

You know those enormous American pick-ups you see just about everywhere these days?

Well, they were a little less popular in 2024, at least for the biggest player (no pun intended): RAM.

But while the RAM 1500 remained the top-selling full-size pick-up model in Oz (3239 units), the wider brand took a 43.6 per cents hit compared to 2023.

Does that mean Australia’s love affair with giant US pick-up trucks is over? I don’t think so, but I do think Aussies need to drive one to truly be able to appreciate them and how untouchable you feel behind the wheel.

Climb into the spacious cab and it’s like you’re in your own little world. In some respects, it’s bliss, but it can also feel isolating and not just because the person next to you is a good metre away.

Just don’t think too much about parking… or driving in the city… or on tight streets. Chills…

Anywho, 2024 was a better year for competitors like the Ford F-150 and Chevrolet Silverado, the latter of which found a total of 3862 homes in 2024 across the 1500 and 2500 HD line-ups.

The Toyota Tundra also arrived a little too late in 2024 to make a meaningful impact, so it’ll be interesting to watch its uptake in 2025.

Toyota had a fabulous – nay, record-breaking – year in 2024, where it topped the charts with a whopping 241,296 vehicles sold last year, and the RAV4 was its top-selling model.

But while the RAV4 was enjoying the limelight, Prado sales slumped massively, and it got the ignominious title of the Toyota model with the biggest year-on-year sales dip.

Admittedly, that’s because the 14-year-old model was in run-out and the new one is already sold out for a year, so there’s no doubt it will bounce back in 2025.

Or will it? Our recent on- and off-road tests of the new-generation Prado resulted in a shocking outcome… involving a tow truck.

It’s no secret Chinese brands are flooding into the Australian new-car market, but GWM (formerly Great Wall Motors) was one of just two brands from the Middle Kingdom to make the top 10 best-sellers overall.

You could call GWM something of an underdog against the might of Toyota, Mazda or Ford, and anecdotal evidence suggests there’s still plenty of Aussies unfamiliar with the brand or at least finding it difficult to recognise the badge. Of course, that’s rapidly changing.

Even so, GWM performed better than ever and snagged the number 10 spot in Australia, one of the toughest mature car markets in the world, while fellow Chinese brand MG retained its spot at number seven, even though it was down 13.3 per cent on its 2023 tally.

Like others, most of GWM’s success came from its range of SUVs, with the compact Jolion finding more than 14,000 homes in 2024, while the mid-size H6 SUV found close to 9000.

How each brand fares in 2025 will be interesting. Will GWM overtake MG?

MG doesn’t have a ute – although one is “100 per cent coming” – while GWM has both the Cannon and Cannon Alpha!

There’s certainly no shortage of choice from either brand, especially if you like SUVs. But then again, what about all the other Chinese makers with SUVs?

While GWM made the top 10 with a 17.5 per cent increase in sales YoY – double-digit growth is a glowing result – two other Chinese challenger brands smashed it out of the park, with BYD up 64.5 per cent and Chery up a whopping 114 per cent.

That’s without counting a single BYD Shark 6 sale – because the first shipment of Australia’s first plug-in hybrid ute didn’t arrive by Christmas as predicted – and with at least 5000 pre-orders, there’s certainly an appetite for PHEV tech in a ute.

Personally, I’m keen to see how many Shark 6s actually sell, but I’m even more eager to know who buys them.

I doubt many tradies will jump ship from a Hilux or Ranger, although I’ve seen plenty of online comments suggesting many will make the move out of other established models and plenty claiming to have already placed an order for a Shark 6.

I see BYD’s ute as more of a lifestyle vehicle than a workhorse, so as long as those tradies aren’t towing (or carrying) heavy loads, it makes more sense. That said, I’m happy to be proven wrong.

Either way, expect to see BYD rocket up the sales chart in 2025.

As for Chery, it too has dual-cab ute plans. And let’s not forget all the other Chinese models: the XPeng G6, the Deepal S07, the Zeekr X, Geely Galaxy EX5… oh so many cars!

While EV uptake grew slightly in 2024 – now accounting for 7.4 per cent of all new-vehicle sales in Oz, up from 7.2 per cent in 2023 – it was hybrid vehicles that were headed skyward.

That includes self-charging and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models,?the latter of which doubled in popularity in 2024, even if it was off a low base. Last year, more than 23,000 plug-in hybrids found a home, while self-charging hybrids like the RAV4 amassed a whopping 172,696 sales (up 76 per cent).

My problem with hybrids is that… wait, I actually don’t have a problem with hybrids.

So, 2024 was full of surprises, but 2025 will be a very different kettle of fish.

In case you missed it, NVES, or the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard came into effect on January 1 and that means manufacturers will now be punished for selling less efficient utes and 4x4s (and rewarded for selling more HEVs, PHEVs and EVs).

Although the legislation is now in place, fines won’t start being dished out until July 1, thanks to a six-month grace period.

Manufacturers may pass fines onto customers in the form of higher price tags on popular models likes the Ford Ranger, Toyota Hilux, Mitsubishi Triton, Isuzu D-Max etc, however, it’s too early to tell who’s going to do what.

At the very least, times are about to get tougher.

With the host of Chinese brands incoming – most of which will offer budget-focused models – there’ll also be more pressure on the established players to remain competitively priced.

Even still, not all Chinese brands are expected to go the distance – Kia Australia boss Damien Meredith believes there will casualties in the fight for smaller pieces of a large pie.

Toyota Australia sales chief, Sean Hanley, has meantime forecast sales to slow in 2025 as supply improves across the market.

“We think the overall market will ease marginally … mainly because of a better balance between supply and demand,” he said.

“We see a return to a more normal market environment. While cost-of-living pressures started to have an impact across the industry in the latter part of last year, we are forecasting a resilient market in 2025, around 1.175 million vehicles.”

Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries CEO Tony Weber likewise warned of the negative impact the cost-of-living crisis was inflicting.

“The second half of the year showed a concerning trend with sales in the private segment falling to very low levels as interest rates and general cost of living pressures impacted Australian families,” he said.

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