THIS MOTORING YEAR 2016: Australian company to watch in 2017

Of all the annual motoring.com.au gongs this festive season, this one was by far the easiest to decide.

Holden will be the most interesting Aussie car company to watch in 2017. Because simply, it's the year it will stop building cars Down Under.

Most will gazette the run at almost 70 years -- since 1948 when the 48-215 'FX' Holden was launched as "Australia's Own Car". In actuality, Holden’s local automotive manufacturing history stretches back to WWI.

Of course, Toyota will also close its car-making operations in Altona around the same time as Holden in late 2017, but its transition to a fully-imported Camry (and perhaps Aurion) from Thailand will be a far smaller blip on the public radar.

That said, shifting the Japanese car-maker's sales and marketing operations from Sydney to Melbourne is a big deal, and Toyota's factory workforce will face the same uncertain future as Holden's.

Holden follows Ford’s production closure in October 2016, marking the end of a local Blue Oval car-making tradition that stretches back to 1925.

As such, although it has the benefit of learning from Ford's experience, it faces the same fundamental challenge: public perception that it is not just ending local manufacturing, but departing the country as a brand entirely.

That's why both brands have committed to 20-odd new or upgraded model releases by 2020, drawing attention away from factory closures and continuing to focus their marketing on customer satisfaction and retention.

The latter will become the holy grail in the industry when the Big Three remaining car-makers no longer have automatic access to a large and lucrative government fleet market and must fight for buyers on equal terms with other full-line importers.

Like Ford, Holden says it will "cherry pick" the best and most suitable products for Australia from around the (GM) world. In reality, both brands will be forced to take what's available to them in right-hand drive. Then, there’s the question of when.

Ford will be without a Territory replacement until 2018 when the Canadian-made Edge becomes available. Holden is also in an SUV holding pattern until new US-centric models like the next Acadia and Equinox come on stream for export from North America, followed by a flagship Euro SUV from Germany.

SUVs aside, one question is whether Aussies will warm to imported models like the German-made Astra hatch and the Korean-built Cruze sedan (which will be sold with an Astra badge). Another is what will consumers make of the fact the two are distinctly different models built on opposite sides of the world?

But the big difference between Holden and Ford is that unlike Falcon (and Territory), the Commodore nameplate will continue with an imported 2018 model based on Germany's next Opel Insignia. Even with a V6 all-wheel drive model to top the range, the smaller German-sourced front-drive, four-cylinder hatch and wagon will be radically different from the rear-drive six and eight-cylinder models with which Aussies have grown up.

For Holden, how many rusted-on V8 Commodore buyers it alienates will be less important than how many fleet and private buyers of family cars like the Camry it can attract with its first imported Commodore.

If Ford's 16.9 per cent sales spike this year (its market share also rose from 6.1 to 6.9 per cent) is any guide, Holden could well turn around its current 7.7 per cent year-on-year sales decline in 2018. But with its market share slipping from 8.9 to just eight per cent this year, it has plenty of work to do to stay in sight of dominant brands like Toyota, Mazda and Hyundai.

Right now, the only thing that's certain is that before Holden bows out of Australian car-making in less than a year, it will produce the finest, Commodore V8s and utes ever.

That alone is reason enough to keep a close eye on Australia's most iconic car brand.